Winter 2019-20 Preseason Discussion

[frd]

Great outlook from @griteater, an educational read. 

Love the images and the associated content pertaining to what he interprets as the upcoming winter's main drivers.  

http://m.uploadedit.com/bbtc/1573380658807.pdf

I really like the High latitude blocking diagram / chart at the end of his presentation. That is pretty cool, very concise and right to the point.

Good luck grit. Please drop in here if you like,  and provide your thoughts if you ever see a high impact time period coming up.  I know you are SE forum based, but your posts are always valuable.  

Best of luck with your forecast !      

 

 

 

[frd]

Fascinating data here on what does a cold November mean in terms of the period D, J and F . 

Brian is a  PhD climatologist.  Looking at the image we seem to be on the Southern edge of the moderate positive correlation shading. 

Last image is the data presented detrended. 

And here is the detrended data 

 

 

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary had an interesting map plotted showing years that the Indian Ocean dipole was above average during non-nino years.  1961-62 (15" @DCA), 1983-84 (8.6" @dca) and 2012-2013 (disaster winter).  Fwiw, each of those winters had at least a trace in November.  I have an extremely cautious view going into this winter.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary had an interesting map plotted showing years that the Indian Ocean dipole was above average during non-nino years.  1961-62 (15" @DCA), 1983-84 (8.6" @dca) and 2012-2013 (disaster winter).  Fwiw, each of those winters had at least a trace in November.  I have an extremely cautious view going into this winter.

That’s worth noting, but it’s an extremely small sample, and those years had very little else in common wrt pattern drivers.  The north pac wasn’t very similar in those years and in a year with a weak enso influence that’s a big deal. Probably as big a deal as the IOD. 

[frd]

Remarkable the general NH snow cover but also the lack of sea ice . 

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Remarkable the general NH snow cover but also the lack of sea ice . 

So I would think that means cold enough to snow with abundant moisture from unfrozen bodies of water but not steady deep cold to expand the sea ice.  Good and bad is how I interpret that. 

[Snowy Hibbo]

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/11/10/north-american-winter-outlook-2019-20/

 

So here is my final write-up for the North American winter. Analysis throughout of course, and results/conclusions towards the bottom. 
Comments are welcome.

[WEATHER53]

I like everything so far since early October

Another frontal blast thru Tuesday and maybe even moisture still here after cold air arrives. Would like to see that for couple months.

 

[frd]

Well, the slumber continues. And,  if a few are correct,  between the deep solar min lag effect and the well established E QBO early next winter should be frigid.  Maybe even a change in the NAO domain that lasts several years. 

Space Weather Forecast - Discussion

Issued: 2019 Nov 11 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Solar activity

24 h Summary

Solar activity was very low. No active regions with sunspots or Earth directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Nov.

Energetic Particles

24 h Summary

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 11-13 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 h Summary

Solar wind parameters were at background levels through about 11/0300 UTC when a gradual enhancement in parameters was observed. Increases in density, wind speed and total field indicated an anticipated CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Shortly after 11/0900 UTC, wind speed peaked near 370 km/s, total field peaked at 11 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -11 nT.

     

[GramaxRefugee]

Looking at the years mentioned by LWX in today's AFD for record low temps, I compared annual snowfall amount for those years viz:
1911 - 22.4"
1920 - 7.9
1926 - 8.5
1957 - 43.0
1963 - 51.8
1986 - 35.2
1988 - 8.3
1996 - 15.3

for convenience, here are the years as they printed it:
Site   Low 11/12   Low 11/13   High 11/13   Low 11/14
DCA     24/1926     22/1911     31/1911      19/1920
BWI     18/1957     22/1911     32/1911      18/1986
IAD     22/1988     21/1963     38/1996      13/1986
(most are low; some are low max)

I'm inclined to ignore the 1920 and 1926 because they appear for DCA only.
Common to BWI and IAD are 1986 and 1988. One good, one bad.

Inconclusive; (like most winter long range); but overall about half good, half bad. The BWI only years, 1911, 1957, 1986, were all average or well above.

[frd]

I look forward to this winter forecast every year with much anticipation, it is up there with Isotherm and Benchmark's seasonal winter outlooks. 

Granted it is geared to NYC, but that really means little because you can see what is expected, and why for December, January and February.  

The thing that interested me was John saying the matching analogs to this winter are very slim. 

NYC Winter Forecast 2019-2020

By

 John Homenuk

 -

November 11, 2019

356

 

0

 

We say it every year, but it’s worth repeating: Seasonal weather forecasting is one of the most challenging aspects of meteorology. It isn’t simply a guesstimate or an educated gamble. It is, instead, the product of months of research which typically begins at least two seasons prior. We’ve been piecing together ideas for this upcoming winter since Spring, and we are excited to present our findings to you. In that respect, we are hopeful to break down the components of the forecast in an easy to understand fashion in our NYC Winter Forecast.

Instead of focusing on individual numerical indexes and values, we are going to try to paint a picture of the atmosphere and what it will be doing over the next few months – based on several global and hemispheric oscillations, conditions, and phenomena. This will lead us to the conclusions which we believe will be the guiding forces for us during the seasons ahead.

There are three main pieces to a seasonal forecast, and while each year presents a different set of challenges, from a forecasting perspective these three pieces almost always remain engraved in the process. We must look at current conditions, analog years, and forecast guidance for the upcoming months to begin our forecast.

The Summer of 2019 was characterized by a significant change in the higher latitudes of the atmosphere. From the arctic regions of the Pacific to the arctic regions of the Atlantic, large ridging became established. This degree of high latitude blocking is highly anomalous, especially when averaged out over a 3 monthly period.

Most notably, perhaps, is the fact that this high latitude blocking also had not been observed in quite some time, especially over such a long duration. This summer, we recorded one of the longest -NAO periods on record.

Such a change in the high latitudes certainly needs to be factored in to the Winter Forecast and we perused all of the available data to weight and rationalize our forecast properly.

The role of ENSO in the upcoming Winter 2019-2020

Anticipated ENSO Conditions: Neutral to Weak El Nino

ENSO conditions are one of they key drives to the Winter pattern. “Tropical forcing” refers to concentrated areas of showers and thunderstorms, otherwise referred to as convection, in meteorological regions of the tropics. This convection, most frequently observed in warm and moist climates, releases latent heat that then rises up into the atmosphere, forming ridges of higher atmospheric air pressure.

The equatorial waters of the Pacific ocean that comprise the ENSO regions breed a great deal of convection, which then accordingly results in atmospheric ridging, and subsequently moves downstream, balancing the atmospheric regime. In a general sense, the more anomalous the positive sea surface temperature anomalies, the more convection that can then exert a stronger forcing mechanism on the adjacent regions of the atmosphere,  reverberating throughout the globe.

We anticipate weak-neutral to weak El Nino conditions during this Winter 2019-2020. These conditions were factored in to our Winter Forecast and our analogs were weighted and sorted accordingly. It is important to note that there is a great deal of variability among analogs as a result of the weak ENSO signal this year.

The El-Nino that develops over the next few months may be of the Central Based nature – with the majority of the warming taking place in Central regions of the tropical Pacific. It is important to note that this is different from a “Modoki” El Nino – which by definition also features some cooling in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean.

Central Based El Nino events have a very different subset of effects when compared to basin-wide or especially Eastern Based El Nino Events. In general, they are cooler across the country in comparison, but particularly in the Eastern United States. There are still a few weeks to go before we will know with greater certainty how the ENSO conditions will evolve. Close monitoring of both the current conditions, subsurface warming and depth will be critical.T

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) this winter

Prediction: Descending easterly -QBO

The QBO is a very important atmospheric index which monitors the quasi periodic oscillation between the equatorial zonal wind – from easterlies to westerlies. A negative QBO often supports higher latitude blocking and ridging, while a more positive QBO supports some resistance to high latitude blocking in those areas.

Recently, a negative (easterly) QBO has been descending toward 30mb. This is an important factor in the Winter ahead, but it is uncertain how quickly the easterly QBO will continue to descend. We used a split analog package as there are only a limited number of QBO analogs which compare to the evolution so far this year.

Other Factors (PDO, Solar Activity, etc)

There are many other factors that go in to producing a Winter Forecast. We try to weight and balance our forecasts based on a variety of subjects. For example, this year the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is at -0.66, but is displaying some characteristics more typical of a +PDO. We must weight our analogs accordingly.

Solar activity is at a near 10-year minimum this year, which certainly will be factored in to the forecast as well. But all of these things tie back to the proper weighting of analogs to get an idea of exactly how the atmosphere is behaving.

Analog years are an important component to winter forecast development. Looking back to past years that featured similar atmospheric progressions and conditions can offer us a peak into how things may evolve in the winter ahead. We can appropriately weight these based on our understanding of the atmosphere during those years and how it compares to current conditions.

The usage of analog years in a Winter Forecast has been long debated and discussed. How much should a forecaster weigh what happened in the past against what is happening currently? How can we utilize past events when the atmosphere is almost certain to behave differently each time, especially given the difference in global weather when compared with weather events from the 1950’s and 1960’s? The answer lies in forecaster preference, and as is the case with most things, how a forecaster weights and blends different components into the forecast will have a huge impact on the end result.

For us, each winter is different. This year in particular, the number of analog years that fit the set of conditions and the overall progression of the atmosphere is very slim. With that in mind, we decided to weight the analog years in our forecast very carefully, taking only the stronger year(s) and blending quickly downward toward the weaker analogs. We are comfortable with our analog composites that were presented and have factored them into our forecast as we typically do – simply a piece of the larger forecasting puzzle.

When we take the individual pieces of research and compile them into one organized forecast, we can begin to see the ebbs and flows of the winter ahead – as they should be, according to our very best analogs and subset of current and past conditions. This winter, we are confident in our month-to-month composites and have indicated moderate to high confidence on each month.

Below, we break down each months temperature and anticipated precipitation trends. While precipitation maps are not included (lower confidence) we discuss precipitation pattern and potential within each individual months breakdown. Please keep in mind, this is a NYC Winter Forecast, but we do discuss national trends and weather patterns as well!

December 2019

December 2019 is expected to feature an expansive Southeast Ridge with warmer than normal temperatures across much of the Southeast United States. Warmth should also spread northward into the Mid-Atlantic States at times, as well as into New England.

The majority of cold risks will be centered in the Northern Plains, where occasional cold shots are likely. It remains to be seen exactly how impressive these cold shots will be, and uncertainty is rather high – precluding any more impressive temperature anomaly forecasts there.

The main area of uncertainty is over New England. The development of a -NAO by mid to late month could favor some colder temperatures in those regions, which may ultimately adjust the monthly average composites. However, we do not expect December to be an overly wintry month in the Northeast states at all.

January 2020

Winter is expected to evolve more dramatically during the month of January, with the potential for further episodes of high latitude blocking on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the arctic. This should dislodge cold air southward into Canada and the United States.

Below normal temperatures are expected on the monthly composites across the Northern Plains and parts of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Periodic expansion of the Southeast Ridge should keep parts of that area above normal with temperatures even on a monthly basis.

Snowfall is expected to average near or slightly above normal in the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast during January – which will feel active compared to the slow start in December.

February 2020

As you may expect at this juncture, confidence is lowest in regards to February when compared to any other month. With that being said, our forecast carries forward the expectation that high latitude blocking will continue to remain prevalent during this month. Colder than normal temperatures are expected across the Great Lakes and Northeast as a result.

Snowfall should again average near or slightly above normal in parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast, with a specific emphasis on New England where snowfall may end up solidly above average.

Much of the Western USA is expected to be warm during this month as ridging remains stout.

NYC Winter Forecast 2019-2020 Highlights and Summary

We expect Winter 2019-2020 to start rather slowly, although there is a window for some wintry weather in very early December. The month will largely be characterized by bouts of warmth along the East Coast. The greatest potential for winter weather during December will exist across the Plains and Midwest.

Gradually, as we move through January, Winter will pick up steam with a colder and snowier pattern becoming established. This may continue into February.

Our current expectation is for temperatures to average near or slightly above average in NYC, with near or slightly above average snowfall. The worst of the Winter will likely be observed from mid to late January into early February. 

We wanted to take the time to thank you for reading our 2019-2020 Winter Forecast. The forecast was compiled at Empire Weather, LLC and New York Metro Weather, LLC in Fanwood, New Jersey from May of 2019 through October of 2019. The graphics were compiled by John Homenuk. Analog work and composition was completed by John Homenuk, Ed Vallee, Doug Simonian and Miguel Pierre. The presentation was compiled and edited by John Homenuk, Ed Vallee and Doug Simonian. Additional forecast feedback, commentary and production was provided by Steve Copertino.

Each year, we are fortunate enough to produce and release a Winter Forecast both to clientele and to the public. We are grateful for the opportunity to share our forecast with as many people as we can – and we hope to deliver a forecast that provides detail, information and clarity.

Here’s to a wonderful Winter ahead! PS – Don’t forget to check our daily forecast page here.

 

John Homenuk

John founded New York Metro Weather in 2008, and the website officially became an established LLC in 2012. Since completing his meteorology studies at Kean University, John has worked on both New York Metro Weather and Empire Weather to provide detailed and personalized weather forecast to the public and private sector.

 

 

[jviper]

This is all I got. 

[GramaxRefugee]

Considering Mr. Homenuk's forecast; (weak el nino), I get an expectation of very snowy NE winter with systems that give us slush and rain. Just get a look at that QBO chart too.

Thanks for posting. 

[Jebman]

On 11/9/2019 at 7:47 PM, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, I hope so as well!  I’m from the thread just up the road from you guys in Central Pennsylvania. I love Winter weather & I have learned a lot from the great posters in your thread over the years. The positive & informative posting style, mixed with a good amount of personality, makes the posts of  @Bob ChiII , @psuhoffman , & @showmethesnow , along with many others on here, a great read everyday in the fall & winter. I usually only lurk here, & just post in my own thread, but I just wanted to say thanks to the good posters in here. 

Also, in the spirit of @Jebman , I hope that we all have a great winter season & all get crushed with a cold, snow filled year !

To add to Blizzard of 93's ideas above.....

Buda Texas has fallen from 72 degrees to 30 in hours, changing the light rain to light sleet and light FRZRA down here! I damn near fell on my ass tonight tryin to get a rainfall reading! There was ice all over the damn wood deck! This is very very extreme for us in south central Texas!!!! This should not happen down here until mid Jan or Feb, IF AT ALL MOST YEARS. The fact that it is happening in mid November could have serious implications down the road, especially for the Mid Atlantic. My uncle in Wisconsin has already seen TWO nights at -10! Thats without the wind! Their normal low is mid 30s.

I think that this is going to be an extremely cold winter all over the country east of the Rockies, and in many places, very well above normal snowfall, some of it reaching record territory.

I am definitely not used to this any more, I think 62 dewpoints at night are cool weather lmao. Its cold as heck down here! We are getting northerly wind gusts to 43mph. The wind chills are getting into the teens and even the upper single numbers. This is making me feel like I never left northern Virginia! LOL!

[WxUSAF]

CWG forecast out

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/12/washington-dc-winter-outlook-near-average-snowfall-with-somewhat-milder-than-normal-temperatures/

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG forecast out

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/11/12/washington-dc-winter-outlook-near-average-snowfall-with-somewhat-milder-than-normal-temperatures/

Looks familiar 

[wxdude64]

21 hours ago, jviper said:

This is all I got. 

Hey, I see some brown! All the ones up here I have seen are zero brown, all black!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

 

[frd]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Fascinating the evolution you have here Ray regarding December and Jan. and the potential warming in Feb. 

Seems the opposite,  to a degree,  versus some other mets and pros. However,  the December you portray is along the lines a few others who are calling for colder risks in December.

The most surprising and interesting part of your outlook is the timeline.  I have always thought getting the progression correct is just as challenging as getting the temps correctly forecasted for each month.  

Seems the best winter weather according to your outlook is in December into Jan., and then again as you state. " February 17-March 2nd may be conducive".

Thanks for your hard work on this presentation. I will need coffee and time put aside later today to read it all,  and reflect back on last winter as well. 

 

  

[Eduardo]

On 11/9/2019 at 5:08 PM, Bob Chill said:

Last year got on my nerves like no other. A combo of a relentless terrible pattern and relentless whining, crying, and complaining made me realize that for the first time in 13 years I was having zero fun participating so I walked away. This hobby is supposed to be... well... a hobby and the entire reason for having hobbies is to escape the notsofun part of life. Once I realized the fun part was completely absent I took a much needed break. And bought an rv and travelled all over the place. Now that S is fun man. Lol

I never mind any outside the area posters dropping in or even hanging out all season with a few important exceptions:

1. Trolls acting in bad faith have no business here or anywhere spreading their disease. Passive aggressive trolls are the worst and should be exterminated from the planet

2. Posting pics and obs from outside areas while we're getting shafted is disrespectful and in very bad taste and it completely escapes me how someone doing it doesn't see how sh!tty it is

3. Rubbing better climo in our faces is about as mature as middle school. Nobody knows our climo better than the regulars and no matter where someone lives there's better snow climo somewhere else. If someone needs an ego boost by putting our area down then I hope their winters are nothing but fireballs, flooding rain, and the biggest accumulation in their yard is steaming dogsh!t

 

Hear hear!

For similar reasons, I also "closed the shades" up here in early December last year and never opened them back up.  And, like you, I also am disappointed over how much the discourse on here has devolved since the early EasternUsWx days (and before).  I am not sure what accounts for it: whether it's part of a broader internet sniping culture, due to lax moderation, or something else.  But your thread here bucks those trends magnificently, so I will continue to visit and chime in from time to time--mostly with questions for those of you more well-versed in the minutiae than me.

BTW, I lived in DC while I was in law school from August 2010 thru May 2013 and the stars never aligned for a good storm while I was there.  Your enthusiasm for this hobby is all the more admirable given the steep climo climb you face each year.  With vivid recollection of what that was like, I always root for you all to cash in big! 

[psuhoffman]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Thanks for posting this!  69/70 was one of my top analogs too. Pretty much agree with your expectations. Your presentation is excellent.  It should be required reading as a crash course in pattern recognition and drivers for anyone that wants to get into this!   Don’t be a stranger this winter. Love your input here. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Fascinating the evolution you have here Ray regarding December and Jan. and the potential warming in Feb. 

Seems the opposite,  to a degree,  versus some other mets and pros. However,  the December you portray is along the lines a few others who are calling for colder risks in December.

The most surprising and interesting part of your outlook is the timeline.  I have always thought getting the progression correct is just as challenging as getting the temps correctly forecasted for each month.  

Seems the best winter weather according to your outlook is in December into Jan., and then again as you state. " February 17-March 2nd may be conducive".

Thanks for your hard work on this presentation. I will need coffee and time put aside later today to read it all,  and reflect back on last winter as well. 

 

  

I could easily see the second half being better, but I have more confidence in the first half because the good second half is dependent upon blocking....if that makes sense...

[J.Mike]

I'll be on the Danube the first two weeks of December, cruising from Munich to Vienna. I bought my first pair of L.L. Bean Duck shoes in anticipation of snow.

[MountainGeek]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Wow -- incredible amount of information and very informative with lots of detail and explanation as to what's going on.

I found this section re NAO prediction fascinating -- and quite an interesting history lesson re the contributions of @UniversesBelowNormal:

 

Utilizing North Atlantic SSTs During Summer as an NAO Predictor for Cold Season

Perhaps one of the most skilled forecasters on a forum replete with talented meteorologists

  and hobbyists alike, in americanwx.com, "StormchaserChuck", now known as 

"UniversesBelowNormal", devised a formula over a decade ago that predicts the mean

 aggregate state of the NAO for the ensuing winter using the SSTs in an area of the north

 Atlantic. This methodology is strongly endorsed as one of the more accurate predictors

 available for the mean state of the winter NAO. In fact, had Eastern Mass Weather

 considered it last season, the outlook would have been much more successful.

The following methodology is a wonderful illustration of the delayed feedback between sea

 and air that represents the very essence of the elaborate system of atmospheric oscillations

 that is so often referenced.

 

"In 2006 on a site called easternuswx, elaborate research was done with North Atlantic SSTs,

 showing high lagging predictive value for following Winter's NAO/AO. The correlation factor

 was higher than 0.4, and there was advantage over decadal cycles. Meaning, it would

 predict years that reversed the decadal trend. The index was very accurate in predicting

 the +NAO for the 2006-2007 Winter, and got much attention after a topic called "This

 will be the warmest Winter on record for the US" (It was the 7th warmest).  Since then

 the index has performed wonderfully after the fact:

 

2018-19: +NAO signal/+NAO winter....Verified

2017-18: Strong -NAO signal/+NAO Winter....Failure to Verify

2016-17: Strong - NAO signal/ Weak -NAO Winter  .. Verified

2015-16: +NAO signal/ +NAO Winter ... Verified

2014-15: Strong - NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify

2013-14: Strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified
2012-13: slight -NAO signal / strong -NAO Winter ... Verified
2011-2012 neutral NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Null
2010-2011: Strong -NAO signal/ Strong -NAO Winter ... Verified

2009-2010: Strong -NAO signal / Strong - NAO Winter ... Verified

2008-2009: weak -NAO signal / weak -NAO Winter ... Verified

2007-2008: -NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Failure to Verify

2006-2007: +NAO signal / weak +NAO Winter ... Verified

2005-2006: strong +NAO signal / +NAO Winter ... Verified

 

In fact, the predictor has now verified 10 times, failed 3 times and predicted a neutral ENSO

 once. The value of this predictor as a forecasting tool has proven high, although the

 scientific fundamentals are a bit weaker in in the opinion of this writer. The index is a

 measurement of May 1 - Sept 30 SSTs in the North Atlantic. It's correlated to following

 November-March NAO/AO (+6 month lag). The index is a composite of 2 areas in the

 North Atlantic (blue box - red box). When blue box is cold SSTs, negative NAO Winter.

 When red box in warm SSTs, negative NAO Winter. For compare, and red box is 65%

 value of blue box anomaly (so -1 blue +0.65 red is same thing). Visa versa.

 The index this year is indicative of a moderately robust -NAO, at -.55 to -.60, as per

 the north atlantic SSTS between May and September:

[Bob Chill]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'd be perfectly happy if your outlook verifies. I do find it jnteresting that your forecast focuses on modoki influence driving the Pac/NA bus on balance of met winter. Looking at current ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me but I've mostly discounted the influence as there is no gradient in the Pac near Nino 3.4-4. It's just a massive bowl of AN sstas in general. But hey, it's completely acceptable if a modoki takes over. Lol

I don't do seasonals but I've had a strong gut hunch that winter in the mid atlantic would be pretty close to avg in both temps and snowfall. Iso says that's unlikely and honestly I was a little surprised with his overall forecast. I'll hug yours and @griteater's for now. 

Grit, I was going to comment in your thread earlier but my wifi kept dropping and pissing me off and then ADD took over. Lol. You couldn't have written a sweeter outlook for the MA region considering mixed signals and no clear easy clues. I'll just hug a blend of yours and Ray's and tune up my shovel before Dec. 

[griteater]

21 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I'd be perfectly happy if your outlook verifies. I do find it jnteresting that your forecast focuses on modoki influence driving the Pac/NA bus on balance of met winter. Looking at current ens guidance it sure looks like a nino to me but I've mostly discounted the influence as there is no gradient in the Pac near Nino 3.4-4. It's just a massive bowl of AN sstas in general. But hey, it's completely acceptable if a modoki takes over. Lol

I don't do seasonals but I've had a strong gut hunch that winter in the mid atlantic would be pretty close to avg in both temps and snowfall. Iso says that's unlikely and honestly I was a little surprised with his overall forecast. I'll hug yours and @griteater's for now. 

Grit, I was going to comment in your thread earlier but my wifi kept dropping and pissing me off and then ADD took over. Lol. You couldn't have written a sweeter outlook for the MA region considering mixed signals and no clear easy clues. I'll just hug a blend of yours and Ray's and tune up my shovel before Dec. 

Bob - after last winter, I almost joined you in the group that "doesn't do seasonals" but the affliction kicked in during October and I decided to write one.  Thank you (and FRD) on the comments.  Good luck to you all this winter.  We'll chat with you down the road.

[frd]

How good is the JAMSTEC? 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, frd said:

How good is the JAMSTEC? 

 

 

If I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts?

[frd]

32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

f I was going to try and interpret that precip map, which isn’t easy, I’d say it screams a cutter pattern. How else do you end up with positive anomalies along the apps and Ohio Valley and simultaneous abnormal dryness along the southeast and mid Atlantic coasts?

I am not so sure about cutter, and even if correct I am happier to see the cold. 

When I magnified the image up I could speculate maybe a clipper pattern.

The immediate Middle Atlantic and SE coast is interesting.  I wouldn't worry about that too much. Heck, I am not even sure how well the JAMSTEC does . To me just a piece of data.  

[WxUSAF]

HM’s teasing again