Winter 2019-20 Preseason Discussion

[psuhoffman]

Here are my winter thoughts for better or worse.   EVERY seasonal forecast is low confidence since we are making predictions based on predictions and using analogs when rarely is there a large enough sample of years with totally similar variables to draw solid conclusions...but this year especially is a crap shoot.  There are conflicting signals and not really a lot of years that share similar signals to look at.  So basically this isn't worth much.

That said, given the lack of really strong analogs I tried to limit things to just a few important variables to try to come up with some "decent" analogs. The main factors I looked at were the Pacific basin SST including enso and north PAC PDO domain.  The Atlantic SST patterns.  The QBO and the prevailing fall patterns.  I came up with a few analogs, but none were A level, so even the best analogs would be weak in a typical year.  

I tried to avoid using really old analogs as I have had no success using years from the 1950's and 60s, I think the climate has changed too much for them to be of much use unless we can accurately adjust for the changes and I cannot so I left them out.  Also, before people chime in with reasons one year or another isnt a great analog...as I said NONE of these are great.  They all have some deficiency.  The QBO wasnt a match, or enso, or the PDO...something.  So yes I know they all have some flaw but I tried to rank them based on what I thought was most important.  Typically the Pacific SST anomalies outweigh other factors if its close.

Based on current conditions and expected evolution of the pattern (that one is tricky I know) I came up with an analog set that included

1969-70, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2018-19.  

There were 3 outliers in the group wrt snowfall, and frankly they were not near the top if I had to rank those years so for my prediction I excluded 2002/3, 2013/14, and 2014/15 however the fact they are there means there is some upside I suppose.  But taking those years out we get a mean snowfall for the remaining years of 15.7" at DCA, 19.5 at BWI, and 25.4 at IAD.  One thing I found very encouraging when looking at various variables was the lack of dud winters.  Just filtering the QBO and North PAC SST for instance you get a larger data set but none of the years in either set were all that bad.  Most werent great either.  Just average to good.  

Putting all that together, and with my "gut" feeling...I expect a near normal winter (which is pretty rare) in the region.  Somewhere between 12-18" at DCA, 16-22" at BWI and 18-25" at IAD.  Around 30-40" for areas up along the PA border and out in the NW areas of our region.  Basically something between median and mean snowfall for most locations.  BUT...I think there is a greater chance we beat average, than we don't make median snowfall.  

I am not going to waste time trying to guess exactly how each month plays out since a 1-2 week anomaly can totally flip the numbers month to month.  For temperatures I would guess somewhere from normal to slightly above normal for the winter with high variability.  Many of those years featured some real cold periods and some torches also.  

Well...that's it...near normal snow, near normal temps.  Slightly better chance to boom than bust.  My best guess.  Good luck everyone! 

 

[Bob Chill]

@PSU

sooo.... you and I basically agree top down on everything leading in. So the next topic of discussion is since we both agree on what we see right now, what is the most likely culprit to destroy our hopes and dreams and end up having a dead rat? I suppose the answer is consolidated in one single place... Iso's seasonal outlook.  LoL

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@PSU

sooo.... you and I basically agree top down on everything leading in. So the next topic of discussion is since we both agree on what we see right now, what is the most likely culprit to destroy our hopes and dreams and end up having a dead rat? I suppose the answer is consolidated in one single place... Iso's seasonal outlook.  LoL

I’m worried about the hemispheric energies. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

@PSU

sooo.... you and I basically agree top down on everything leading in. So the next topic of discussion is since we both agree on what we see right now, what is the most likely culprit to destroy our hopes and dreams and end up having a dead rat? I suppose the answer is consolidated in one single place... Iso's seasonal outlook.  LoL

Seriously, with everything ambiguous it’s hard to see any one thing that is the biggest threat. I guess if a few factors like the pdo shifted the wrong way. Imo the biggest threat is simply that we don’t know what this exact combination of factors will do and if it’s slightly worse than we guess, and we have the typical December torch, then get unlucky with a couple threats, we could be staring a dud in the face. 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Here are my winter thoughts for better or worse.   EVERY seasonal forecast is low confidence since we are making predictions based on predictions and using analogs when rarely is there a large enough sample of years with totally similar variables to draw solid conclusions...but this year especially is a crap shoot.  There are conflicting signals and not really a lot of years that share similar signals to look at.  So basically this isn't worth much.

That said, given the lack of really strong analogs I tried to limit things to just a few important variables to try to come up with some "decent" analogs. The main factors I looked at were the Pacific basin SST including enso and north PAC PDO domain.  The Atlantic SST patterns.  The QBO and the prevailing fall patterns.  I came up with a few analogs, but none were A level, so even the best analogs would be weak in a typical year.  

I tried to avoid using really old analogs as I have had no success using years from the 1950's and 60s, I think the climate has changed too much for them to be of much use unless we can accurately adjust for the changes and I cannot so I left them out.  Also, before people chime in with reasons one year or another isnt a great analog...as I said NONE of these are great.  They all have some deficiency.  The QBO wasnt a match, or enso, or the PDO...something.  So yes I know they all have some flaw but I tried to rank them based on what I thought was most important.  Typically the Pacific SST anomalies outweigh other factors if its close.

Based on current conditions and expected evolution of the pattern (that one is tricky I know) I came up with an analog set that included

1969-70, 1981-82, 1989-90, 1993-94, 2002-03, 2004-05, 2013-14, 2014-15, 2018-19.  

There were 3 outliers in the group wrt snowfall, and frankly they were not near the top if I had to rank those years so for my prediction I excluded 2002/3, 2013/14, and 2014/15 however the fact they are there means there is some upside I suppose.  But taking those years out we get a mean snowfall for the remaining years of 15.7" at DCA, 19.5 at BWI, and 25.4 at IAD.  One thing I found very encouraging when looking at various variables was the lack of dud winters.  Just filtering the QBO and North PAC SST for instance you get a larger data set but none of the years in either set were all that bad.  Most werent great either.  Just average to good.  

Putting all that together, and with my "gut" feeling...I expect a near normal winter (which is pretty rare) in the region.  Somewhere between 12-18" at DCA, 16-22" at BWI and 18-25" at IAD.  Around 30-40" for areas up along the PA border and out in the NW areas of our region.  Basically something between median and mean snowfall for most locations.  BUT...I think there is a greater chance we beat average, than we don't make median snowfall.  

I am not going to waste time trying to guess exactly how each month plays out since a 1-2 week anomaly can totally flip the numbers month to month.  For temperatures I would guess somewhere from normal to slightly above normal for the winter with high variability.  Many of those years featured some real cold periods and some torches also.  

Well...that's it...near normal snow, near normal temps.  Slightly better chance to boom than bust.  My best guess.  Good luck everyone! 

 

That '69-70 looks scrumptious here in far western Va..

[jaydreb]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Seriously, with everything ambiguous it’s hard to see any one thing that is the biggest threat. I guess if a few factors like the pdo shifted the wrong way. Imo the biggest threat is simply that we don’t know what this exact combination of factors will do and if it’s slightly worse than we guess, and we have the typical December torch, then get unlucky with a couple threats, we could be staring a dud in the face. 

Thanks for writing up your thoughts.  The biggest threat is probably simply having bad luck.  It’s one thing to try and predict whether we will have a favorable/unfavorable pattern.  But trying to guess something as chaotic as snowfall is something else entirely.  We could have average snowfall in a bad pattern.  We could have below avergae snowfall in a good pattern.  Etc, etc.  Quite often whether we hit climo depends on whether one particular storm lines up at the right time.  Like last year for example.  I had about 20” of snow for the season, which is right around climo for me.  But half of that came from one storm.  Take away that storm and I’m left with a crappy, sub-climo winter.  Give me the 12/9 storm (which I missed) and suddenly I have a 30” winter in the same middling pattern.  

We need to have a workable pattern, but we also need to cash in one or two times when we do and that takes luck.  I guess the better the pattern, the more opportunities we have to score and the less likely we are to whiff on all of them.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Thanks for writing up your thoughts.  The biggest threat is probably simply having bad luck.  It’s one thing to try and predict whether we will have a favorable/unfavorable pattern.  But trying to guess something as chaotic as snowfall is something else entirely.  We could have average snowfall in a bad pattern.  We could have below avergae snowfall in a good pattern.  Etc, etc.  Quite often whether we hit climo depends on whether one particular storm lines up at the right time.  Like last year for example.  I had about 20” of snow for the season, which is right around climo for me.  But half of that came from one storm.  Take away that storm and I’m left with a crappy, sub-climo winter.  Give me the 12/9 storm (which I missed) and suddenly I have a 30” winter in the same middling pattern.  

We need to have a workable pattern, but we also need to cash in one or two times when we do and that takes luck.  I guess the better the pattern, the more opportunities we have to score and the less likely we are to whiff on all of them.  

I agree with this. A better pattern is like getting to draw an extra card at the poker hand.  But it doesn’t guarantee you win the hand. Some rare years the pattern is so stacked it would take monumental bad luck not to beat climo and some years it’s so awful we’re doomed. But the other 60% of the time luck and chaos has as much to do with our results as anything else imo.  I think this year is one of them except with maybe just enough help that odds of a complete dud are lower than normal. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree with this. A better pattern is like getting to draw an extra card at the poker hand.  But it doesn’t guarantee you win the hand. Some rare years the pattern is so stacked it would take monumental bad luck not to beat climo and some years it’s so awful we’re doomed. But the other 60% of the time luck and chaos has as much to do with our results as anything else imo.  I think this year is one of them except with maybe just enough help that odds of a complete dud are lower than normal. 

Wasn't last year a good example of this? Folks were chasing the unicorn/epic pattern in the LR that kept fizzling out. Then when we finally had everything line up for a week or 10 days it was rather uneventful. It's funny how that works....more often than not it's the meh patterns that produce and when we actually get the NAO working in tandem with the PAC and AO is when we get our KU storms 9 out of 10 times. Never got the -NAO at the right time 2018-19. This year should have more opportunities to produce. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Was 1989-90 in your analogs?

Yes.

[attml]

Well, the GFS finally has some color on it!!!

 

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman and @40/70 Benchmark, is 89-90 on your analog list for QBO? Or PDO? I don’t believe the ENSO matches at all...

[Eduardo]

19 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

TLDR: way too early to expect or rule out any outcome this winter 

 

...it's Nov 8th and the next 7 weeks or so is the window that most often throws a curveball at seasonal forecasters. Just as lack of blocking has baffled many over the last 5+ years, who's to say that a roaring -AO doesn't lock in during Dec/Jan? Or the Pac jet base state won't setup highway lanes that roll up and over the top of a PNA ridge and dig down to the gulf? These things have proven to be extremely difficult to forecast with any accuracy at 1+ month leads during enso neutral years. 

Dec is notorious for having a persistent longwave pattern upstream. And it's shown us many times that the persistent pattern in Dec likes to repeat throughout at least a portion of met winter...

Sometimes it's more of a timing issue versus a blown seasonal forecast. Like last year when it finally "got right" it was simply too late. Think about how bad d10-15 ensembles and CFA/EPS weeklies did last year? They ALL kept showing the same good thing run after run but the atmosphere didn't oblige until it was too late. The unexpected pac jet pattern in Dec-Jan basically committed felony larceny for 8+ straight weeks. That took every single wx enthusiast, professional, and weather supercomputer by surprise. What if the opposite happens this year and we "luck into" a nice longwave pattern even though the signs and data says we shouldn't? How can you confidently rule that out considering how many "surprises" winter has delivered over the years? 

The most promising thing that's happening in real time is the AO....

 

Agreed here 100%!  IIRC, during December 2017, we waited for a warm-up that never ended up materializing and (at least for us a bit further north), that ended up being a harbinger for the decent winter that followed.

Contrast that with December 2018, where the writing was pretty much on the wall for what became a dud up here (where I finished with a single-digit seasonal snow total, most of which came from the November storm...ugly!).

IMO, if we average a -AO in December, that bodes well for the entire EC generally.  The possibility of a true -NAO emerging toward the beginning of December has me viewing the cliff from a respectable distance right now as well.

Solid thread you all have here BTW.  Hope you all don’t mind me visiting! 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman and @40/70 Benchmark, is 89-90 on your analog list for QBO? Or PDO? I don’t believe the ENSO matches at all...

It wasn’t a QBO match. It caught my attention because if you adjust for the warmer base state of the oceans today the location of the warm and cool anomalies in the pacific and IOD locations is a pretty good match. Enso isn’t perfect, especially now but 1990 evolved to a warm neutral look by January and that seems to match. I will say the differences there are seem to favor this year being slightly better than 1990 on the whole.  The North Atlantic sst is more favorable now although the inferno off the southeast coast could mean we have to fight a SE ridge at times especially early. That constant lately could account for some of the warm December trends. Just a thought. The qbo is more favorable now. I know IAD had a great number in 1990 but it was a local max and more luck than pattern imo. It was a decent year pattern wise imo, and not a perfect match but like I said I found no great matches and had to settle for decent ones picking a few pattern drivers. 

Now

fall 1989

jan 1990

 

here was a main dilemma in finding good analogs. The current look in the PDO and IOD regions is much more common with an El Niño not a neutral enso. But enso being one of the most significant drivers makes it hard to overlook that one major difference. But, for example, the best analog match wrt to everything else except enso is 2002-2003. Close match wrt anomalies in the north Pac, Indian Ocean, Atlantic basin, and QBO. But how useful is it given the obvious difference wrt enso?  

[frd]

Looking good, I have seen worse 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Agreed here 100%!  IIRC, during December 2017, we waited for a warm-up that never ended up materializing and (at least for us a bit further north), that ended up being a harbinger for the decent winter that followed.

Contrast that with December 2018, where the writing was pretty much on the wall for what became a dud up here (where I finished with a single-digit seasonal snow total, most of which came from the November storm...ugly!).

IMO, if we average a -AO in December, that bodes well for the entire EC generally.  The possibility of a true -NAO emerging toward the beginning of December has me viewing the cliff from a respectable distance right now as well.

Solid thread you all have here BTW.  Hope you all don’t mind me visiting! 

Well you didn’t start off by telling us all how stupid we are so that’s a plus!  Honestly outsiders are welcome when they contribute and aren’t being belligerent!  

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking good, I have seen worse 

 

Ventrice mentioned the GEFS is hinting at a SSWE with those big positive h5 height anomalies over Siberia. Maybe we can time this right so NC and S VA can cash in on another early Dec winter storm! 

[Rhino16]

21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Maybe we can time this right so NC and S VA can cash in on another early Dec winter storm! 

That would fun! Was there a SSWE last year around this time too? Did it ever have an effect on anything for us, or was it mostly just other places?

[CAPE]

53 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

That would fun! Was there a SSWE last year around this time too? Did it ever have an effect on anything for us, or was it mostly just other places?

IIRC there was warming/significant disruption of the PV leading up to the early Dec storm, but not a SSWE. It resulted in a severely suppressed storm track due to southward displaced "daughter vortices" and some transient/bootleg ridging in the NAO domain.

[MDstorm]

After reviewing this thread and analyzing people’s prognostications, it appears that some people are leaning towards a crap winter, some towards an average winter, and some towards a good winter ahead.  I really think that someone is going to be right.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman and @40/70 Benchmark, is 89-90 on your analog list for QBO? Or PDO? I don’t believe the ENSO matches at all...

Warm-neutral ENSO....not a top analog...

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, MDstorm said:

After reviewing this thread and analyzing people’s prognostications, it appears that some people are leaning towards a crap winter, some towards an average winter, and some towards a good winter ahead.  I really think that someone is going to be right.

Yeah that's the result of conditions that look so ambiguous right now. Just in a big wait-and-see atm...hopefully we get some more answers by the end of November.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah that's the result of conditions that look so ambiguous right now. Just in a big wait-and-see atm...hopefully we get some more answers by the end of November.

I don’t care if we don’t “know” it’s going to snow until it’s snowing so long as it snows!

[Bob Chill]

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

Agreed here 100%!  IIRC, during December 2017, we waited for a warm-up that never ended up materializing and (at least for us a bit further north), that ended up being a harbinger for the decent winter that followed.

Contrast that with December 2018, where the writing was pretty much on the wall for what became a dud up here (where I finished with a single-digit seasonal snow total, most of which came from the November storm...ugly!).

IMO, if we average a -AO in December, that bodes well for the entire EC generally.  The possibility of a true -NAO emerging toward the beginning of December has me viewing the cliff from a respectable distance right now as well.

Solid thread you all have here BTW.  Hope you all don’t mind me visiting! 

Last year got on my nerves like no other. A combo of a relentless terrible pattern and relentless whining, crying, and complaining made me realize that for the first time in 13 years I was having zero fun participating so I walked away. This hobby is supposed to be... well... a hobby and the entire reason for having hobbies is to escape the notsofun part of life. Once I realized the fun part was completely absent I took a much needed break. And bought an rv and travelled all over the place. Now that S is fun man. Lol

I never mind any outside the area posters dropping in or even hanging out all season with a few important exceptions:

1. Trolls acting in bad faith have no business here or anywhere spreading their disease. Passive aggressive trolls are the worst and should be exterminated from the planet

2. Posting pics and obs from outside areas while we're getting shafted is disrespectful and in very bad taste and it completely escapes me how someone doing it doesn't see how sh!tty it is

3. Rubbing better climo in our faces is about as mature as middle school. Nobody knows our climo better than the regulars and no matter where someone lives there's better snow climo somewhere else. If someone needs an ego boost by putting our area down then I hope their winters are nothing but fireballs, flooding rain, and the biggest accumulation in their yard is steaming dogsh!t

 

[Chris78]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year got on my nerves like no other. A combo of a relentless terrible pattern and relentless whining, crying, and complaining made me realize that for the first time in 13 years I was having zero fun participating so I walked away. This hobby is supposed to be... well... a hobby and the entire reason for having hobbies is to escape the notsofun part of life. Once I realized the fun part was completely absent I took a much needed break. And bought an rv and travelled all over the place. Now that S is fun man. Lol

I never mind any outside the area posters dropping in or even hanging out all season with a few important exceptions:

1. Trolls acting in bad faith have no business here or anywhere spreading their disease. Passive aggressive trolls are the worst and should be exterminated from the planet

2. Posting pics and obs from outside areas while we're getting shafted is disrespectful and in very bad taste and it completely escapes me how someone doing it doesn't see how sh!tty it is

3. Rubbing better climo in our faces is about as mature as middle school. Nobody knows our climo better than the regulars and no matter where someone lives there's better snow climo somewhere else. If someone needs an ego boost by putting our area down then I hope their winters are nothing but fireballs, flooding rain, and the biggest accumulation in their yard is steaming dogsh!t

 

Well I hope you dont find yourself having zero fun again  this year because I really enjoy your insights and overall positivity on this board lol.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Well I hope you dont find yourself having zero fun again  this year because I really enjoy your insights and overall positivity on this board lol.

The only thing I'm doing different from now on is when a shutout pattern shows up I'm embracing it and not chasing the flip. I'll just step away from wx watching and go hiking and mountain biking then jump back in when it looks better at a believable range. 

It's a shame what the board has evolved into. It was a lot more fun with eastern and early amwx. I think the entire social flow of the internet has degraded in general and it's unlikely to change for the better. Keyboard warriors, contrarians, and trolls are having too many kids I guess, 

[midatlanticweather]

Fwiw 

 

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

40 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only thing I'm doing different from now on is when a shutout pattern shows up I'm embracing it and not chasing the flip. I'll just step away from wx watching and go hiking and mountain biking then jump back in when it looks better at a believable range. 

It's a shame what the board has evolved into. It was a lot more fun with eastern and early amwx. I think the entire social flow of the internet has degraded in general and it's unlikely to change for the better. Keyboard warriors, contrarians, and trolls are having too many kids I guess, 

Just stopping by to say that some of us down in the Southeast forum often lurk in the Mid Atlantic thread just to read your thoughts. There will always be some good and bad posters in every area, but don't let a few bad ones ruin it for everybody. Back to lurking....

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Just stopping by to say that some of us down in the Southeast forum often lurk in the Mid Atlantic thread just to read your thoughts. There will always be some good and bad posters in every area, but don't let a few bad ones ruin it for everybody. Back to lurking....

I say this every single year in the SE sub and I'll say it again... I root for you guys every single year and very much enjoy sharing my thoughts when things look good down there.

 I always root for underdogs and not trying to put down the SE by calling you guys underdogs. Just that you need the most things to go right and the struggle is real at times. You guys can get some big hits and that's why everyone is here...  nothing quite like a big dog coastal. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Well I hope you dont find yourself having zero fun again  this year because I really enjoy your insights and overall positivity on this board lol.

Yes, I hope so as well!  I’m from the thread just up the road from you guys in Central Pennsylvania. I love Winter weather & I have learned a lot from the great posters in your thread over the years. The positive & informative posting style, mixed with a good amount of personality, makes the posts of  @Bob ChiII , @psuhoffman , & @showmethesnow , along with many others on here, a great read everyday in the fall & winter. I usually only lurk here, & just post in my own thread, but I just wanted to say thanks to the good posters in here. 

Also, in the spirit of @Jebman , I hope that we all have a great winter season & all get crushed with a cold, snow filled year !

[Treckasec]

4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Last year got on my nerves like no other. A combo of a relentless terrible pattern and relentless whining, crying, and complaining made me realize that for the first time in 13 years I was having zero fun participating so I walked away. This hobby is supposed to be... well... a hobby and the entire reason for having hobbies is to escape the notsofun part of life. Once I realized the fun part was completely absent I took a much needed break. And bought an rv and travelled all over the place. Now that S is fun man. Lol

I think that there's a little too much of an... Obsessive nature when it comes to having fun, wintery patterns... There's far too much emotional investment when it comes to hoping for a snowy winter, and it is difficult to wade through many of the posts when I'd rather everyone just have fun, regardless of the weather outside! There certainly is far too much complaining, and it's a shame how much I love weather forums like these, because I keep lurking (and occasionally posting) despite the toxicity... It's too much. I'm glad that you had fun and had a proper escape from the silliness. Hopefully life can get better, because I think that it says something about the state of things when we're clinging to weather to make us happy.