2019 Temperatures

[bdgwx]

I'll go ahead and get this kicked off since I have something interesting to talk about.

So UAH is usually super quick at publishing monthly numbers. They posted a +0.61 for September 2019 which was an unexpectedly large increase.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

The data file is even flagged with:

*****CAUTION****** SEPTEMBER 2019 DATA APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUSLY WARM.  WE ARE INVESTIGATING.

The warming seems to be the result  of unusually large anomalies in both the stratosphere and troposhere in the southern hemisphere with a whopping +13.65 at the south pole on the TLS product.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt

But...RSS just released their September data and they too show the unusual warming.

http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/TLT_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channel_TLT_Global_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt

http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/TLS_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channel_TLS_Southern Polar_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt

It seems as though there was a sudden stratospheric warming event in the SH. And it was record breaking at least according to UAH and RSS. 

I'm thinking the UAH (and RSS) data may be legit. UAH may be justified in removing the warning message without any changes to the data.

[chubbs]

Here is the RSS TLT maps for Sept and Aug. I don't see any evidence that the SHemi strat warming had much impact. The September warmth occurred in pockets across the globe (including E US). Probably just a fluky satellite month.

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I'll go ahead and get this kicked off since I have something interesting to talk about.

So UAH is usually super quick at publishing monthly numbers. They posted a +0.61 for September 2019 which was an unexpectedly large increase.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0.txt

The data file is even flagged with:

*****CAUTION****** SEPTEMBER 2019 DATA APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUSLY WARM.  WE ARE INVESTIGATING.

The warming seems to be the result  of unusually large anomalies in both the stratosphere and troposhere in the southern hemisphere with a whopping +13.65 at the south pole on the TLS product.

https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0.txt

But...RSS just released their September data and they too show the unusual warming.

http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/TLT_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channel_TLT_Global_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt

http://images.remss.com/data/msu/graphics/TLS_v40/time_series/RSS_TS_channel_TLS_Southern Polar_Land_And_Sea_v04_0.txt

It seems as though there was a sudden stratospheric warming event in the SH. And it was record breaking at least according to UAH and RSS. 

I'm thinking the UAH (and RSS) data may be legit. UAH may be justified in removing the warning message without any changes to the data.

The flag makes no sense. September was exceptionally warm globally. Europe had several big heat waves. East Asia had one. The month ended in the early stages of a historic autumn heat wave in the Southeast.

The EU's Copernicus Program issued its September climate summary that confirmed the warmth. In part, the summary stated:

Globally, September 2019 was 0.57°C warmer than the average from 1981-2010, making it the warmest September in our data record, although virtually on a par with 2016.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletins

[bdgwx]

I think the flag made sense at the time. I have to be honest...my first thought was that something may have been wrong with the data. That was before I had learned of the record breaking SSW event in the SH and the RSS data. Looking back through commentary it appears like a few experts had already expected UAH and RSS to record these unusually large regional anomalies and modestly large global anomalies. Until this event I had no idea a SSW event in the SH could cause such a dramatic change in the global mean temperature. Fascinating stuff.

BTW...Spencer and Christy have confirmed that their data is correct. This statement now appears in the data files.

*****UPDATE 4 Oct 2019***** After further analysis, September 2019 values are credible.  see https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/10/record-antarctic-stratospheric-warming-causes-sept-2019-global-temperature-update-confusion/

[forkyfork]

3 hours ago, bdgwx said:

I think the flag made sense at the time. I have to be honest...my first thought was that something may have been wrong with the data. That was before I had learned of the record breaking SSW event in the SH and the RSS data. Looking back through commentary it appears like a few experts had already expected UAH and RSS to record these unusually large regional anomalies and modestly large global anomalies. Until this event I had no idea a SSW event in the SH could cause such a dramatic change in the global mean temperature. Fascinating stuff.

BTW...Spencer and Christy have confirmed that their data is correct. This statement now appears in the data files.

*****UPDATE 4 Oct 2019***** After further analysis, September 2019 values are credible.  see https://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/10/record-antarctic-stratospheric-warming-causes-sept-2019-global-temperature-update-confusion/

sounds like they're measuring too high. probably to suppress the long term warming trend since the stratosphere is cooling 

[bdgwx]

Yes. UAH's TLT product is too high to be a reliable proxy for the surface temperature. Obviously that raises concerns with contamination from the cooling stratosphere, but its been suggested that there are other methodological problems that may be partly to blame for their significantly lower warming trend estimate.

[donsutherland1]

According to the GISS data set, September 2019 was the second warmest September on record globally with a monthly temperature anomaly of +0.90°C. That was near September 2016's record +0.91°C anomaly.

To date, 2019 has an annual temperature anomaly of +0.95°C. That is the second warmest January-September period on record. 2019 could finish as the second warmest year on record. To conclude as the second warmest year on record, the average temperature anomaly for the October-December period would need to be just above +0.82°C. The last time the three-month average anomaly was +0.82°C or below was July-September 2018 with an average anomaly of +0.80°C.

It is very likely that 2019 will finish as at least the 3rd warmest year on record. To finish below third, 2019 would need an average 3-month temperature anomaly of just under +0.74°C. The last time that happened was June-August 2014 with an average anomaly of +0.69°C.

[LibertyBell]

On 10/19/2019 at 8:01 PM, donsutherland1 said:

According to the GISS data set, September 2019 was the second warmest September on record globally with a monthly temperature anomaly of +0.90°C. That was near September 2016's record +0.91°C anomaly.

To date, 2019 has an annual temperature anomaly of +0.95°C. That is the second warmest January-September period on record. 2019 could finish as the second warmest year on record. To conclude as the second warmest year on record, the average temperature anomaly for the October-December period would need to be just above +0.82°C. The last time the three-month average anomaly was +0.82°C or below was July-September 2018 with an average anomaly of +0.80°C.

It is very likely that 2019 will finish as at least the 3rd warmest year on record. To finish below third, 2019 would need an average 3-month temperature anomaly of just under +0.74°C. The last time that happened was June-August 2014 with an average anomaly of +0.69°C.

This is record warmth for a non el nino year!

 

[Great Snow 1717]

On 10/22/2019 at 10:55 AM, LibertyBell said:

This is record warmth for a non el nino year!

 

I agree. And likely to impact the upcoming winter.

[bdgwx]

Copernicus says 2019 was the warmest (albeit by a narrow margin) on record for the month of October.

They also cite the last 12 months as being 1.2C above the pre-industrial temperature. And with an energy imbalance that is still +0.6 W/m^2 it is reasonable to assume that more warming is likely already baked in. 

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-october-2019 

[Typhoon Tip]

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. 

I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions.  

It's enabling in a way...  We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming.   

I find that fascinating.  It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating..  Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust - 

[bdgwx]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions.

Maybe a bit of WACKy (Warm Actic Cold Continent) or perhaps the hypothesized Quasi-Resonant Amplification of the jet stream starting to show itself?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bdgwx said:

Maybe a bit of WACKy (Warm Actic Cold Continent) or perhaps the hypothesized Quasi-Resonant Amplification of the jet stream starting to show itself?

 

 

and that warm blob over the Pacific and super amplified patterns that stick in place

[rclab]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. 

I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions.  

It's enabling in a way...  We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming.   

I find that fascinating.  It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating..  Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust - 

The Piper May be cheated initially but will let paid, at cost, in the end. Unlike that morality tales children, one might wonder what near and dear will be taken from us. As always .....

[LibertyBell]

On 11/6/2019 at 11:08 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. 

I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions.  

It's enabling in a way...  We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming.   

I find that fascinating.  It's almost like ( being artsy and fun here...) Gaia can't get through to us, so she/he/it is turning up the oven to "Clean" while we are safe here outside the planet incinerating..  Can't sterilize the planet if it's chief asshole constituent toxifiers are in on it, so we get protected while the mass extinction bite species' dust - 

The planet does self-regulate for biodiversity rather than dominance of a single species and I do believe there's much truth in what you're saying.  Our very nature which led to our dominance may well lead to our destruction.  Evolution comes full circle.

 

[chubbs]

HadSST vs CMIP5 RCP6 SST prediction. 2019 is through Sept for HADSST3 and not available for HADSST4.  Overall CMIP5 is performing well. The post-hiatus spike has taken SST from below to above the model prediction.

[Vice-Regent]

I cannot fathom the amount of heat sequestration that occurred in the 2000s and early 2010s. It was a phenomenal amount let's just leave it at that. Enough to power modern civilization for 10,000 years.

This also implies that our climate buffer and safety system is failing us and the time for meaningful action is running away.

[Vice-Regent]

On 11/6/2019 at 11:39 AM, LibertyBell said:

and that warm blob over the Pacific and super amplified patterns that stick in place

It is infact warm ocean's and cold continent's because it forces the PV south due to the quasi resonance. it's the death knell for the PV if given enough time and what we see now is a lite version of what happened in 2013 despite greater resonance in the system.

We should be much colder than we are and the Hadley Cell movement is starting to negate the PV displacement and the PV is much reduced in general.

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeeeup ....  

Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh?  F idiots 

But oh, wait!  When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. 

The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. 

When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs.  It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world.  The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away..  I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact. 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

I cannot fathom the amount of heat sequestration that occurred in the 2000s and early 2010s. It was a phenomenal amount let's just leave it at that. Enough to power modern civilization for 10,000 years.

This also implies that our climate buffer and safety system is failing us and the time for meaningful action is running away.

Do you think there is a way to extract all that extra heat from the oceans and use that for energy, while simultaneously bringing some equilibrium to the planet?!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeeeup ....  

Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh?  F idiots 

But oh, wait!  When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. 

The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. 

When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs.  It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world.  The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away..  I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact. 

on TWC they had the climate debate and I listened with some alacrity while R's were talking about letting the free market handle it and letting them spurt as much CO2 as they want to into the air until it hurts them economically.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, Vice-Regent said:

It is infact warm ocean's and cold continent's because it forces the PV south due to the quasi resonance. it's the death knell for the PV if given enough time and what we see now is a lite version of what happened in 2013 despite greater resonance in the system.

We should be much colder than we are and the Hadley Cell movement is starting to negate the PV displacement and the PV is much reduced in general.

Yes, our first freeze is actually happening right when it's supposed to.  With all that extreme warmth in Alaska, it should be much colder than this.

[lookingnorth]

On 11/6/2019 at 10:08 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

And I want folks to note that cool relative offset region over N/A. 

I've noted some 2/3rd of the months since 2000 have features a relative cool region somewhere over our continent, and more the majority of that ~ 2/3rd have had said region over SE Canada and NE conus regions.  

It's enabling in a way...  We are still in the top 3 contributors to anthropogenic gassing off all industrial peers on the planet, and we are consummately being protected from the "edge" extremes of warming.

I wonder how much longer that will last. I do find it interesting how every month from July 2018 to now except September 2019 has been below normal in OKC, yet the planet as a whole is experiencing near-record to record warmth.

[banshee8]

On 11/8/2019 at 11:21 AM, LibertyBell said:

Yes, our first freeze is actually happening right when it's supposed to.  With all that extreme warmth in Alaska, it should be much colder than this.

You realize that the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 in October happened last month, right?

[bluewave]

9 hours ago, banshee8 said:

You realize that the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 in October happened last month, right?

This matches the pattern pretty well. We can still get record cold as the climate warms. But the ratio of record highs to record lows keeps increasing. Record Arctic outbreaks also occupy a much smaller area now. You can see how the October record cold in the Western US was like a tiny ice cube in a global sea of warmth.

 

[Vice-Regent]

It is a bit extreme to the point where you wonder if the Chem trailers are correct. I will keep an open mind on the subject. I suspect it's tied to the cold stratosphere which is an expected effect of global warming. The only problem is you need perfect conditions to bring those temperatures to the surface. This is not a negative feedback.

[SnoSki14]

11 hours ago, banshee8 said:

You realize that the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 in October happened last month, right?

Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. 

I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.

[Vice-Regent]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. 

I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for a several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.

Even then it's not guaranteed. Remember we have only seen 40% of the warming from a 400ppm climate due to the transient climate response function. That should increase to 70% in 20 years and so on.

If the above was true we wouldn't need to worry about carbon sequestration and geoengineering. I prefer to separate the saving the civilization narrative from the science. I have no interest in seeing a continuation of this paradign and the science is far more interesting. Earth > Humans. We are Earth.

[banshee8]

9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Like Bluewave stated it's like a tiny ice cube in a massive hot ocean. 

I'm pretty sure you'll still get isolated cold periods for several more decades until the warmth overwhelms everything unless of course we do manage to curb our emissions over the next 30-50 years.

Did you see the post I was responding to? He was saying we should be colder given the Alaskan blocking, and then referenced the weather in his backyard.

The western 2/3 of the country was very cold last month, including the all-time record for October.

[LibertyBell]

On 11/9/2019 at 10:59 PM, banshee8 said:

You realize that the coldest temperature ever recorded in the lower 48 happened last month, right?

It did?  As far as I'm aware the coldest temp ever recorded in the lower 48 is still -70 at Wolf Creek Pass.