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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Takes an anomalous pattern for the Piedmont to have an opportunity for snow this time of year, and the models are certainly suggesting just that...

Some of us might see our first flakes at least in the air on Thursday night.

Hopefully this coming Tuesday delivers our first accumulation of snow. The models all show some type of storm in our region. There is plenty of cold air on the way. It will all come down to how much phasing takes place & the timing & the final storm track. 

Either way, it is great to be back doing some early season winter storm tracking in early November yet again!

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6 hours ago, sauss06 said:

Mike is going to have to turn his air off this weekend :arrowhead:

 

3 hours ago, canderson said:

He’ll just set it to FAN ON.

This is great stuff right here! A few years ago when I had our HVAC guy in for our yearly inspection he recommended that I adjust the setting from AUTO to RUN. So it's been running continuously since! 

To be completely honest...truly, I did turn off the air last Friday. At the time it was 67. That is my year-round setting. Disgruntled, I turned the AC back on earlier this week when it reached 74. My house is a hot box with many south and west-facing windows. The one thing that will cool down my home is a combination of cold, clouds AND a NW wind. It can be sub-freezing at night like it's been recently but if it gets to 50 or above with sun during the day, we bake. 

I do expect to shut it off tomorrow...though with sun and mid 50s by Sunday, she'll be humming again...

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57 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

This is great stuff right here! A few years ago when I had our HVAC guy in for our yearly inspection he recommended that I adjust the setting from AUTO to RUN. So it's been running continuously since! 

To be completely honest...truly, I did turn off the air last Friday. At the time it was 67. That is my year-round setting. Disgruntled, I turned the AC back on earlier this week when it reached 74. My house is a hot box with many south and west-facing windows. The one thing that will cool down my home is a combination of cold, clouds AND a NW wind. It can be sub-freezing at night like it's been recently but if it gets to 50 or above with sun during the day, we bake. 

I do expect to shut it off tomorrow...though with sun and mid 50s by Sunday, she'll be humming again...

We won't turn the heat on in the original part of our house until probably Christmas. And when we do turn it on, it only runs when temps get into the 20s 

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23 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

We won't turn the heat on in the original part of our house until probably Christmas. And when we do turn it on, it only runs when temps get into the 20s 

I don't keep exact records of such things, but I'm pretty confident my heat ran about 50 days last winter season. Typically it'll run in January and most of February, and then only in March during exceptionally cold and/or snowy weather. 

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Hm, which idiotic Facebook weather group said Harrisburg was going to get actual snow yesterday? Cause this is an awesome shot across the bow against the S&As out there ...

 

For those of you seeing people putting out information about possible snow next Tuesday...just ask yourself how much snow we got yesterday. Find a source you trust. Otherwise, it could be a long winter for you.
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14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hm, which idiotic Facebook weather group said Harrisburg was going to get actual snow yesterday? Cause this is an awesome shot across the bow against the S&As out there ...

 

For those of you seeing people putting out information about possible snow next Tuesday...just ask yourself how much snow we got yesterday. Find a source you trust. Otherwise, it could be a long winter for you.

My 60-year-old mother texted me some bullshit on FB the other day about yesterday/last night. I just responded with "lol," and told her to stick to Joe Murgo at WTAJ in Altoona. There's no reason for weather services to exist on social media. I would argue that even TV station weather departments, private forecasters such as AccuWeather, or the NWS come off as alarmist on social media. Stick to print, air, and text. 

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Hello all.  Welcome to another upcoming winter season...albeit a bit early again.  I actually like autumn a bit more than winter, so I'd personally like to have my November 50's high temps back for a few more weeks.

Like many here today was my first official sighting of snowflakes.  We had numerous brief periods of flurries mid to late morning with an occasional heavier snow shower that lasted a few minutes.  I was outside during one of the heavier snowbursts, and with the wind blowing it suddenly felt like real winter.

Looking forward to having convos with all of you throughout the upcoming season.  Looks like tonight will be the coldest night of "fall" thus far with low to mid 20's for me by morning.  

Enjoy your weekend!

---Stephen

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26 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hello all.  Welcome to another upcoming winter season...albeit a bit early again.  I actually like autumn a bit more than winter, so I'd personally like to have my November 50's high temps back for a few more weeks.

Like many here today was my first official sighting of snowflakes.  We had numerous brief periods of flurries mid to late morning with an occasional heavier snow shower that lasted a few minutes.  I was outside during one of the heavier snowbursts, and with the wind blowing it suddenly felt like real winter.

Looking forward to having convos with all of you throughout the upcoming season.  Looks like tonight will be the coldest night of "fall" thus far with low to mid 20's for me by morning.  

Enjoy your weekend!

---Stephen

Great to see you back on here !

I saw my first flakes as well this morning!

Hopefully next week we can score our first measurement of snow!

The best part is that this is all preseason tracking. Any snow that we get during the next few weeks is a bonus.

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If any of my Harrisburg area friends are around tomorrow, my wife and I will be at Pet Valu in Lemoyne noon-2pm signing calendars that feature our cat Pixel. She won a national vote to be featured and they go on sabe tomorrow. $5 ea h and go toward fighting animal cruelty. 

Come introduce yourself and let’s meet.

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20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Congrats to your family, Chris, for that unique honor.

(I'll be in touch soon to explain why I never got back to you about the HVAC)

My new furnace is keeping a toasty 70 here tonight. The new AC kept the house cold at even 75. Great system $10,500 can buy lol. 

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19.6 for me at 4:36am.  I just set up my weather station at noon yesterday at my new residence (apartment) that I moved to 1 week ago.  I'm still in Carlisle but in South Middleton Twp now, moved from North Middleton Twp after living there for 8 years.  I'm in a brand new apartment complex called Summerbridge.  298 units with solar (9 panels per unit).  I've got the best exposure (location of the equipment) for any place I've every lived.  Only minor issue is the wind is connected to the temperature so the sensor unit is mounted at 6 feet to get accurate temps, but wind no longer at 10M.  Temp accuracy much more important, though.

Needless to say there's heavy frost everywhere this morning and there's solid ice in the drainage culverts from the standing puddles of Thursday's rainfall.

The manager of the apartment complex let me set up the station, so it will be the "offical" weather station for Summerbridge.  For anyone interested here's my Weather Underground link to the station:

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KPACARLI73

Finally, I received some emails from my weather friends back in NJ this morning.  The state climatologist (based at Rutgers in New Brunswick) reported a low of 19 degrees which broke the record of 21 set back in 1992.  The 19 degrees was also the coldest temp recorded so early in the season.  He went on to mention that just once month ago, on October 2nd the station hit a record of 95 degrees which broke the record for hottest reading so late in the season!  Wow!

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The 18z NAM has upped the ante for our possible Tuesday snow event. It slowed the progression of the front & allowed the colder temps to infiltrate more quickly. Let’s hope this trend continues. This looks more like what the models were showing a few days ago for this time period.

Hey @MAG5035 , what are your thoughts on this possible event ?

E00D9BE9-5211-4D19-BCFB-8D35CA473B5B.png

FEDBB217-DE6A-47CA-869E-952C2F61BD53.png

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7 hours ago, Voyager said:

But look at that Schuylkill County snow hole...lol

The 6z NAM puts most of Schuylkill County in a good spot !

I’m just hoping to see if snow for a couple of hours & maybe get on the scoreboard with a couple of tenths of an inch at MDT. Maybe it will turn into a car topper & cover the grassy surfaces as well.

5217340C-EA4D-43F5-B9F4-8AC4A97AB94D.png

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1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 6z NAM puts most of Schuylkill County in a good spot !

I’m just hoping to see if snow for a couple of hours & maybe get on the scoreboard with a couple of tenths of an inch at MDT. Maybe it will turn into a car topper & cover the grassy surfaces as well.

5217340C-EA4D-43F5-B9F4-8AC4A97AB94D.png

 

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

Nam is sure bouncing around but the other run was the 18z. 

Be nice to see some flurries today.

I know it's all "noise" as to the correct placement of where any "heavier" accumulations set up, but I couldn't resist posting...lol

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I did see my first snow Thursday at the cabin.  bout 1.5" on top.  Made for an extremely cold few days of hunting but was great to see.

Regarding tomorrows anafrontal snows.....meh.  We've seen this many times with any changeover being brief at best down here.  I'd say north of RT 6 corridor is best chance of any whitening.  Like Blizz...I'll take any mood flakes i can get though.  Just not sure we see them.  Hoping I'm wrong.  Chilly Tues night no matter what flakes fly. 

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