Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[Itstrainingtime]

31 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

forgot about that one, until you brought it up.  Yeah I remember them upping the totals every couple hours.  I remember walking up the street w/ my bro around 5-6pm and looking at the street light in awe of how hard it was snowing.  Probably the heaviest rates i had seen to that point in my life.  

Lancaster and Allentown both reported 5" of new snow at their 5pm hourly measurements. 

31 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

After thinking about it I am going to change my memories first reaction and say mid 90's.  It was not a snow that affected a large area of the Northeast.  Most people south of the LSV, and maybe even Lancaster county, got rain but back in the Western LSV we had a surprise 4-6" but nothing like the 1982 storm you mentioned as temps were very marginal in the one I am thinking of.

That might explain my lack of memory.  

[Bubbler86]

@Wmsptwx's question rallied us to being one of the hottest boards on here despite no snow.  Thanks!

 

Interesting that we are already higher (35) than our forecast high temp today (34) and it just feels not cold out so I am thinking some may break into the 40's today.  

[Bubbler86]

Strike

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

37 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Strike

 

 

That's exactly the scenario you were looking for yesterday...

[Santa Clause]

2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

@Wmsptwx's question rallied us to being one of the hottest boards on here despite no snow.  Thanks!

 

Interesting that we are already higher (35) than our forecast high temp today (34) and it just feels not cold out so I am thinking some may break into the 40's today.  

I've enjoyed reading them thoroughly...has me longing for the days the entire screen would go orange for winter storm warnings on the weather channel haha.

[Bubbler86]

44 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That's exactly the scenario you were looking for yesterday...

And the "gang" in the MA LR thread continue to be too concerned with pattern change.  I know it is what they do best and what they want to talk about but they have been wrong so often the last two seasons that I wonder when its going to click that many are here to track snow storms.  We need two things for snow...moisture and temps that stay near or below freezing through most of the column.  That's it.  We can get snow with the MJO in phase 1000 or the TPV on the moon as long as we have a function to get moisture and the temps.    We need the source region of disturbances to be one that is further S/W than most in recent years or a more zonal flow with a slight but mostly relaxed area of heights to our South East.  There are other possibilities such as clippers and such but I believe the storms that really seem to give us decent, not KU but decent, snows are of these two sources.  The term is Gorilla in the Gulf for a reason.  LOL.

 

Rant Off

 

 

[pawatch]

Interesting read on major snow storms in the northeast

https://www.weather.gov/aly/MajorWinterStorms

 

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/climateRecordsWilliamsport

[Bubbler86]

I have to jump on a long call but will look forward to Daxx giving us details about the Dec 29th Euro Snowstorm!

 

[daxx]

It gives us snow.  I’m not sure I like how it does it. Low goes into Michigan. Still long range looking better. All the panic a couple days ago! Lol

[Flatheadsickness]

looks like there is  something out there around  Jan 3rd-4th also

[canderson]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

It gives us snow.  I’m not sure I like how it does it. Low goes into Michigan. Still long range looking better. All the panic a couple days ago! Lol

That'd be an interesting evolution to bring anyone east of, say, Blair County, snow. 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

That'd be an interesting evolution to bring anyone east of, say, Blair County, snow. 

I am sure there are posts somewhere saying the Atlantic is helping us make that snow. 

[daxx]

My last comment was not for anyone specific in our sub.  It just seems when people start hearing the big dogs talk about the long range going up in flames,  some people fall apart. I’m not going to lie I felt a little on edge with yesterday’s runs at 12z.  So a little guilty here. When you start hearing discussions of a bad pattern until late January, that to me is nonsense.  Too far out to say something like that in my opinion. 

[daxx]

EPS and gefs  are moving in the right direction today.  Let’s see if we can hold or improve those looks over the next couple days. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, daxx said:

My last comment was not for anyone specific in our sub.  It just seems when people start hearing the big dogs talk about the long range going up in flames,  some people fall apart. I’m not going to lie I felt a little on edge with yesterday’s runs at 12z.  So a little guilty here. When you start hearing discussions of a bad pattern until late January, that to me is nonsense.  Too far out to say something like that in my opinion. 

And to add to your thought I think there are two lines of discussion.  Apparent weather and patterns.  My "not taken nicely" comment about the models punting the last two weeks of December was an apparent weather discussion and strictly based on specific model output while the people commenting we are done until Mid Jan, in the MA thread, were talking patterns.  That is where I think people get lost too much...too many think bad pattern means we are screwed when in reality it snows in bad patterns just usually not a KU snow.  However when you see all MR models showing almost no cold anywhere in the CONUS over a one to two week period you can usually extrapolate the apparent weather a bit. 

[Santa Clause]

Lol I hope the mid Atlantic gets a solid hit just to help cheer them up a little....some of them seem pretty down and depressed.

[daxx]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

And to add to your thought I think there are two lines of discussion.  Apparent weather and patterns.  My "not taken nicely" comment about the models punting the last two weeks of December was an apparent weather discussion and strictly based on specific model output while the people commenting we are done until Mid Jan, in the MA thread, were talking patterns.  That is where I think people get lost too much...too many think bad pattern means we are screwed when in reality it snows in bad patterns just usually not a KU snow.  However when you see all MR models showing almost no cold anywhere in the CONUS over a one to two week period you can usually extrapolate the apparent weather a bit. 

Good post Bubbler, could not agree more!  

[Bubbler86]

3 hours ago, daxx said:

It gives us snow.  I’m not sure I like how it does it. Low goes into Michigan. Still long range looking better. All the panic a couple days ago! Lol

18Z GFS has the storm but is missing the CAD/High off the New England Coast. 

[MAG5035]

55 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol I hope the mid Atlantic gets a solid hit just to help cheer them up a little....some of them seem pretty down and depressed.

Typically at about the lowest point of hopelessness down there and when everything's canceled til next year by mid-Jan is when they get wacked with some once in 30 years type snowstorm. 

[Blizzard of 93]

On 12/19/2019 at 12:18 PM, daxx said:

In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before.  Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning.  Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. 

Yes, I remember opening presents with my parents maybe around 8 or 9am & the rain changed to thumping heavy snow! I was in my mid-20’s at the time, but it was absolutely magical, like something right out of the Christmas songs. I had rented a truck the day before so that I could take us from Harrisburg to Mechanicsburg to my grandparents house for Christmas dinner. That was one heck of a ride in the driving snow, even with a 4x4 truck! 

[Blizzard of 93]

On 12/19/2019 at 12:20 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm in that sub more than I am here, mostly due to activity and the fact that they have some absolutely dynamite posters. (Hoffman, Chill, plus several red taggers are super informative. Plus, our weather often starts down there, so there's that. 

For whatever reason they are very protective of "their house" and don't welcome outsiders well. Ask @pasnownut about that. 

Yes, I also lurk there every day. The main posters there like @psuhoffman , @Bob Chill & several others have a ton of knowledge & good posting style that make it informative, easy to read, & they are entertaining. I don’t post there often, but I look forward to reading their posts everyday.

[Blizzard of 93]

On 12/19/2019 at 12:25 PM, pasnownut said:

For me....a necessary evil of sorts lol.  If one truly loves weather, there is serious talent/knowledge in that forum...let alone a handful of active Mets.  Some of "our" crew have left here and now post primarily because of the level of convo/info to be had down there. You get a diverse blend of information and knowledge sharing.

Believe me when i say that I'd love to just stay here, because while we may not have quite the depth of knowledge....we are the coolest. 

Dont tell them i said that....its hard enough for me to "keep my place" down there.  Good Lord they are a territorial bunch. 

Yes, they have many good posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum. I have learned a ton from the main posters down there over the years.

I think that we have several knowledgeable posters here in our forum. I think that whenever one of us provides a quality post, it promotes good discussion.

I would absolutely love to see more quality posts here, but if no one gets things started, it stays kind of quiet.

@pasnownut , I see some of your posts down in the Mid Atlantic forum & I wonder to myself, “ why doesn’t he post that kind of good stuff in the Central PA forum?”

My point is, even if it seems quiet in here, if you or any of us, provide a good quality post, usually it will get a good conversation started.

The last few days have been awesome in here. I didn’t have time to post due to work & holiday festivities, but it was a great read whenever I had the chance to check in here.

[Blizzard of 93]

On 12/19/2019 at 2:58 PM, Bubbler86 said:

The way I look at it, being near the boundary in January and maybe the first half of February means we are near the moisture.  December and later Feb into March we need better patterns but just a standard SW/NE flow will do just fine mid winter as long as there is no SE Ridge.

 

 

 

 

I also like being near the boundary in the middle of winter. We would have some hits & misses, but at least would be in the game every storm. It would sure beat a cold & dry pattern where we would chase clippers & deal with suppressing storms to the south.

[Blizzard of 93]

On 12/19/2019 at 8:22 PM, Itstrainingtime said:

1. March 1993 1(18" of snow, 65mph wind, 4" of sleet. I had a solid snow cover for 15 days in mid-March. Likely never again)

2. January 1996 (30.5", ended up with 44" for the week)

3. February 1983 (5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm, heaviest snow I've ever seen. Ended up with 24.5") 

 

Brian, I have a hard time ranking that week in January 1996 with February 2010. I had the same amount of snow both weeks. 

 

 

1. ) March 1993 - 24 inches of snow, crazy sustained wind with gusts & heavy drifting. The impacts up & down the east coast were historic. This storm is what made me fall in love with the weather. I can’t imagine what this forum would be like if we ever had a storm approach that magnitude.

2.) January 2016 - 30 inches of snow that shattered the all time record at MDT by 6 inches. I know that records are made to be broken, but I don’t know if we will beat that in my lifetime.

3.) February 2003 - The President’s Day storm was spectacular because of its duration & frigid temperatures during the first half of that storm. That Sunday morning light to moderate snow began with temps near 10 degrees if I recall correctly. The low was still back in the southern Plains, but precip stretched the whole way to the east coast. It snowed all day Sunday, & then the coastal portion of the storm took over. We had heavy snow until almost noon on Monday & ended up with 24 inches.

[Blizzard of 93]

22 hours ago, daxx said:

My favorite spring snowstorm was March 21, 2018. Two part storm. Ended up with 18.7 inches. 

I liked that storm as well. It was a fun storm to track on this forum. I know that we can occasionally get snow into early April, but the March of 18 storm helped me to set a new boundary for when heavy snow is still possible. Before this storm, my “cut off” for heavy snow in my mind was closer to March 15th. Hopefully we get a big storm around March 28th one year so I can push my boundary out more!

[Blizzard of 93]

15 hours ago, daxx said:

EPS and gefs  are moving in the right direction today.  Let’s see if we can hold or improve those looks over the next couple days. 

The 0z EPS & 0z GEFS continue to develop a good look during the first few days of January.

[pasnownut]

22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, they have many good posters in the Mid-Atlantic forum. I have learned a ton from the main posters down there over the years.

I think that we have several knowledgeable posters here in our forum. I think that whenever one of us provides a quality post, it promotes good discussion.

I would absolutely love to see more quality posts here, but if no one gets things started, it stays kind of quiet.

@pasnownut , I see some of your posts down in the Mid Atlantic forum & I wonder to myself, “ why doesn’t he post that kind of good stuff in the Central PA forum?”

My point is, even if it seems quiet in here, if you or any of us, provide a good quality post, usually it will get a good conversation started.

Thanks for the kind words.  In truth, up here it just seems meh'd over sometimes...and when I post down there, it sometimes leads to discussion.  I will say that this year, it REALLY seems territorial/clicky down there.  Bob, FRD, Showme and several others used to have good convos.   This year down there I can say/suggest something, with no response....but if so and so says the very same thing, it gets all kinds of likes and commentary.  I just chuckle and carry on...I don't do this for elite status, but I know a LITTLE bit about weather and pattern recognition .  

As most can tell, I'm not here for the like button on my posts, I'm a diehard weenie here to discuss weather (and of course make friends along the way-heck, I've "known" some here for over a decade...that's really cool stuff IMO). 

I'd love it nothing more than to stay here and have commentary from ANY/ALL of our posters, as that leads to well rounded discussions (and I truely mean that).  No storms need named after me.....just give us the damn storm .  

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thanks for the kind words.  In truth, up here it just seems meh'd over sometimes...and when I post down there, it sometimes leads to discussion.  I will say that this year, it REALLY seems territorial/clicky down there.  Bob, FRD, Showme and several others used to have good convos.   This year down there I can say/suggest something, with no response....but if so and so says the very same thing, it gets all kinds of likes and commentary.  I just chuckle and carry on...I don't do this for elite status, but I know a LITTLE bit about weather and pattern recognition .  

As most can tell, I'm not here for the like button on my posts, I'm a diehard weenie here to discuss weather (and of course make friends along the way-heck, I've "known" some here for over a decade...that's really cool stuff IMO). 

I'd love it nothing more than to stay here and have commentary from ANY/ALL of our posters, as that leads to well rounded discussions (and I truely mean that).  No storms need named after me.....just give us the damn storm .  

I think that some of us did a good job over the last week calling out some of the “meh” posters. Hopefully they keep it to a minimum this year unless they can post things to back up their negative or “we’re doomed” comments.

I’m not ever going to let them stop me from posting quality information or having a good discussion with you or some of the better posters in here. 

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I also like being near the boundary in the middle of winter. We would have some hits & misses, but at least would be in the game every storm. It would sure beat a cold & dry pattern where we would chase clippers & deal with suppressing storms to the south.

If one looks at the middle/longer range on this AM's ensembles, you and Bubbles may have your wish. Once beyond Christmas, we go zonal, and IMO it is what I was alluding to when I stirred up the pot a bit several days ago.  I guess some didnt see the tellies and what they were pointing to when the Op runs were screaming dumpster fire. 

IMO the adjustments we are seeing are a response to the tellies due to MJO signal not being strong enough to overtake the pattern.  NAO/PNA and where they are heading are directly reflected in the last 2 days of LR adjustments on the ENS runs. NAO response it beating down the ridging in the east.  PNA is forcing ridging in the west, and that split flow that keeps popping up is definately workable as long as it doesnt close off and carve a deep trough in the SW.

BTW Bubbles....I still like you and hope your not mad at me forever.  While I have my work cut out with converting you from warm to cold, you seem to know your shit.  I respect that...

Its just weather buddy.  

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think that some of us did a good job over the last week calling out some of the “meh” posters. Hopefully they keep it to a minimum this year unless they can post things to back up their negative or “we’re doomed” comments.

I’m not ever going to let them stop me from posting quality information or having a good discussion with you or some of the better posters in here. 

Hey Blizz,

Just so you take into consideration that some of the meh posts are right.  This week you contradicted a comment I made about posters in the MA that were saying things like Mid-Late January (Red Tagger Millville openly threw out the first half of winter whether you consider that Mid January or late January).  If you are just looking for posts that are positive then you will never like me as I am trying to post and discuss the weather good or bad :-).  In their defense I will say that people throwing out time periods a month past the time of the post are obviously going to be wrong most of the time but they are entitled to post as much as anyone else.