Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1996 was modeled to miss south until about 48 hours or so before the event. It was one of those great storms where during the final hours before the event the amounts getting increased. Dramatically.

Elliott Abrams was off his rocker raising totals every hour or two.

 

 

[Santa Clause]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That storm blew out the windows in the old Spectrum in Philadelphia. Flyers were home and playing at the time. Game was suspended after the 1st period. Winds in Philly gusted to hurricane force. That storm was modeled incredibly, especially at that time. It seemed certain that the entire east coast was going to be crushed 5-7 days out.

You would have appreciated the severe aspect of it...squall line raced through Florida with tornadoes and wide spread damage. 

That's amazing to read...truly a monster...did you guys lose power at all during it? You probably were in heaven with that snow pack and sleet on top. 

Lol and I actually am a nerd enough I watched a documentary on that Florida impact called the 'No name storm' had huge storm surge, came in while people were sleeping.

[canderson]

I’m very drunk (damn habit for humanity fundraiser at Ever Grain brewery) but all these posts are great.

@Voyager don’t dare leave - we all value your input and intelligence! We all I think understand as a professional driver winter is by far the worst season but don’t think our joy of snow is anything negative for you!

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

That's amazing to read...truly a monster...did you guys lose power at all during it? You probably were in heaven with that snow pack and sleet on top. 

Lol and I actually am a nerd enough I watched a documentary on that Florida impact called the 'No name storm' had huge storm surge, came in while people were sleeping.

I did not lose power.

Go on YouTube and pull up some of the Weather Channel video...classic stuff!

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

I know I beat on the "I hate snow because I have to drive in it" drum, and I'm sure it gets old for some. I'll just have to reign in those kinds of posts I suppose.

Thanks for the kind words all!

No one wants you to leave... Including me. if you got that message then I’m not sure how. Thanks for understanding that it’s a weather board. That’s the only point I’ve ever tried to make both past and present.

By and large we largely are here to discuss weather. 
Like stated, you have a unique geography that puts you in a spot that many can’t understand or appreciate. You also have knowledge and it shows when you want it to.

I hope you continue to share it. 

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

No one wants you to leave... Including me. if you got that message then I’m not sure how. Thanks for understanding that it’s a weather board. That’s the only point I’ve ever tried to make both past and present.

By and large we largely are here to discuss weather. 
Like stated, you have a unique geography that puts you in a spot that many can’t understand or appreciate. You also have knowledge and it shows when you want it to.

I hope you continue to share it. 

Favorite storms? Know you're a Miller A man haha.

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, pasnownut said:

No one wants you to leave... Including me. if you got that message then I’m not sure how. Thanks for understanding that it’s a weather board. That’s the only point I’ve ever tried to make both past and present.

By and large we largely are here to discuss weather. 
Like stated, you have a unique geography that puts you in a spot that many can’t understand or appreciate. You also have knowledge and it shows when you want it to.

I hope you continue to share it. 

Thanks. It was one sentence that got me, and I kind of felt bad about it. In my defense, however, I'm one who prefers hitting climo with 4 to 6 crippling storms, not the one to two inch salt messes.

8 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Favorite storms? Know you're a Miller A man haha.

Oh, for sure I am. I can get screwed pretty good on the MIller B's.

[pasnownut]

8 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Favorite storms? Know you're a Miller A man haha.

any with the letter B to start...shocked arent you?

93 and 96 were both great but the one a couple years back(Jan 2016 maybe - sorry I'm not a great date keeper of storms) probably takes my mantle space, as we got hammered in the front, and while we tainted briefly, we quickly transitioned back to S+ and the deformation band threw 10" on top.  Typically we dont do well with Dband snow around here.  Watching that storm evolve was one of the "cleaner" events I've followed from a forecasting perspective.  The deformation band litterally pivoted over SC/SE Pa and rotted away over us.  

Yeah 2016....thats #1 for me.  Just thinking about it makes me giddy.  It was my perfect storm, even though the totals may have been bigger in other events.

Thanks....you just started my Friday off with a smile.

 

 

[pawatch]

There was a big snow back in 64, I barely remember. But I remember my Dad putting snow chains on his car.

93-94 there was a couple big storms. And the one in 2017. 

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Thanks. It was one sentence that got me, and I kind of felt bad about it. In my defense, however, I'm one who prefers hitting climo with 4 to 6 crippling storms, not the one to two inch salt messes.

Oh, for sure I am. I can get screwed pretty good on the MIller B's.

No need to defend what you like....I get it and it makes sense.  For a true weenie like me....you take what you can get.  I'm sure you understand.

Miller B's are more typical and we can do well, but I they require nerve pills when following and typically you and I live in th skip/jip zone, so I'm right w/ ya on B's.

The letter A is in front of B for a reason....they were thinking about storms when they created the alphabet :).

[Bubbler86]

10 day Euro has temps above freezing north of Edmonton, Canada.  That would usually be a good look for us but....

[Itstrainingtime]

31 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

any with the letter B to start...shocked arent you?

93 and 96 were both great but the one a couple years back(Jan 2016 maybe - sorry I'm not a great date keeper of storms) probably takes my mantle space, as we got hammered in the front, and while we tainted briefly, we quickly transitioned back to S+ and the deformation band threw 10" on top.  Typically we dont do well with Dband snow around here.  Watching that storm evolve was one of the "cleaner" events I've followed from a forecasting perspective.  The deformation band litterally pivoted over SC/SE Pa and rotted away over us.  

Yeah 2016....thats #1 for me.  Just thinking about it makes me giddy.  It was my perfect storm, even though the totals may have been bigger in other events.

Thanks....you just started my Friday off with a smile.

 

 

I had a hard time leaving 1/22/2016 off my top #3. It was a great storm - one thing that scared the crap out of me was how close the dry slot got to us. I remember waking up early Saturday morning and being horrified by this huge dry slot that was moving N-NW out of the Chesapeake bay region. It made it to about the Mason/Dixon line JUST to our southeast as the pivot began. Areas affected by that dry slot lost 10-12" compared to surrounding areas that never dry slotted.

I don't recall any mixing with that storm...I might (probably) am wrong. There was a separate storm in 2017? that we tainted for several hours between maybe 5am - 9am? 

Edit: March 13, 2017 we had a storm where those of us S&E of Harrisburg  tainted for 4-5 hours during the morning. (See above) It was not modeled well, but Eric Horst was all over it screaming on Twitter that Lancaster was going to taint even though no model was showing it. Again, it was that onshore SE wind that did us in that morning...

[Itstrainingtime]

Another great storm us older guys remember is 1978. (PD1) We were forecast to get light snow/flurries and I ended up with 16" of wind-driven snow that left a 9' drift in our driveway. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Another great storm us older guys remember is 1978. (PD1) We were forecast to get light snow/flurries and I ended up with 16" of wind-driven snow that left a 9' drift in our driveway. 

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches.  It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore. 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that day for 4 or more inches.  it was a slop fest of storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore. 

 

 

Those are the best...

My memory of '78 is somewhat hazy now, nearly 42 years later. I know it was a Miller B that only affected extreme northern/northeast MD up into New England. Many in the far northeast US benchmark this storm as the granddaddy of them all. Amounts of 30"-40" were common and winds gusted to 100 mph (?) out on the cape. Lancaster county was fortunate to get into an intense deformation band and we ripped snow overnight...I went to bed with green grass and woke up around 5am with over 1' of snow and true blizzard conditions. As a 12 year old that was pretty cool stuff. 

[pasnownut]

54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I had a hard time leaving 1/22/2016 off my top #3. It was a great storm - one thing that scared the crap out of me was how close the dry slot got to us. I remember waking up early Saturday morning and being horrified by this huge dry slot that was moving N-NW out of the Chesapeake bay region. It made it to about the Mason/Dixon line JUST to our southeast as the pivot began. Areas affected by that dry slot lost 10-12" compared to surrounding areas that never dry slotted.

I don't recall any mixing with that storm...I might (probably) am wrong. There was a separate storm in 2017? that we tainted for several hours between maybe 5am - 9am? 

Edit: March 13, 2017 we had a storm where those of us S&E of Harrisburg  tainted for 4-5 hours during the morning. (See above) It was not modeled well, but Eric Horst was all over it screaming on Twitter that Lancaster was going to taint even though no model was showing it. Again, it was that onshore SE wind that did us in that morning...

We tainted in Lanco for maybe 2 hr. Huge pingers (pack retention so fine by me) and then quick transition back over. Middletown to hbg never tainted. 

[sauss06]

Hands down January 1996 is my all time favorite. #2 would be March 1993 and then February 2010 with back to back storms totaling 40" which i'll probably never see that happen again. 1978 falls in there too. 

EDIT- how can i forget PD2????? Feb '03 32" then 4" more the next day.......................Even the Valentines storm with snow, sleet, frzn etc

[Cashtown_Coop]

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Hands down January 1996 is my all time favorite. #2 would be March 1993 and then February 2010 with back to back storms totaling 40" which i'll probably never see that happen again. 1978 falls in there too. 

This is pretty much my list.   Except for the 78 storm ( wasn’t born yet) but the 93 and 96 storms will always rank 1 and 2 for me and what ultimately got me so interested in the weather.  Then 2010, back to back 24”+ storms within days will likely never happen again in my lifetime.  

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

We tainted in Lanco for maybe 2 hr. Huge pingers (pack retention so fine by me) and then quick transition back over. Middletown to hbg never tainted. 

I believe 'ya...I must have been too busy posting on here to notice. 

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Hands down January 1996 is my all time favorite. #2 would be March 1993 and then February 2010 with back to back storms totaling 40" which i'll probably never see that happen again. 1978 falls in there too. 

EDIT- how can i forget PD2????? Feb '03 32" then 4" more the next day.......................Even the Valentines storm with snow, sleet, frzn etc

Valentine's day storm was sleet...I mean sweet.  

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is pretty much my list.   Except for the 78 storm ( wasn’t burn yet) but the 93 and 96 storms will always rank 1 and 2 for me and what  ultimately got me so interested the weather.  Then 2010, back to back 24”+ storms within days will likely never happen again in lifetime.  

How much did you get in '93? I recall Chambersburg topped 30"...

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

This is pretty much my list.   Except for the 78 storm ( wasn’t born yet) but the 93 and 96 storms will always rank 1 and 2 for me and what ultimately got me so interested the weather.  Then 2010, back to back 24”+ storms within days will likely never happen again in my lifetime.  

Did not realize you were so young...you may be one of the younger posters here.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Did not realize you were so young...you may be one of the younger posters here.  

Prob am.   I started my coop site when I was 26 years old.  I’m 36 now 

I was a spotter for state college going back to when I was 16.   

[Itstrainingtime]

50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches.  It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore. 

 

 

Feb '83 which made my list was forecast to be a 4-8" kind of deal right up until the morning it started. It quickly escalated from that to 8-16", 12-24", and finally 18-28". 

From 2-5pm I received 12" in that storm. 

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Feb '83 which made my list was forecast to be a 4-8" kind of deal right up until the morning it started. It quickly escalated from that to 8-16", 12-24", and finally 18-28". 

From 2-5pm I received 12" in that storm. 

Those kind are always the best.  The one I am remember from March late 80's/early 90's was forecast to be partly cloudy and maybe a chance of rain showers and the next morning I happened to flip on TWC (a  big deal back then) and there was flashing and beeping for a WSW starting that morning.  It may have even been late March approaching April. It was like winning a baseball game after being down 9-1 going into the 9th.  Super Bonus snow.

Though to me the biggest surprise snow storm of all time, and probably the biggest victory for this board's (Usenet, EUS, whatever) penchant to never say never, is January 2000.  Watching that baby climb the East Coast and listening Live to NWS, Accuweather, etc...scramble to explain how we went from from no snow to 12-18" was like a sweet victory.  I would argue that storm is the basis for this board today.   If it had not happened we may not be here typing this. 

[daxx]

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There was s surprise snow storm in March, very late 80's or early 90', where the forecast the night before was partly cloudy and I woke up to a Winter Storm Warning that next day for 4 or more inches.  It was a slop fest of a storm but surprise WSW's are unheard of anymore. 

 

 

For me January 25, 2000 is the biggest surprise storm. Watching that radar I just knew the forecast was going to fail. In a good way! Models totally blew it.  

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those kind are always the best.  The one I am remember from March late 80's/early 90's was forecast to be partly cloudy and maybe a chance of rain showers and the next morning I happened to flip on TWC (a  big deal back then) and there was flashing and beeping for a WSW starting that morning.  It may have even been late March approaching April. It was like winning a baseball game after being down 9-1 going into the 9th.  Super Bonus snow.

Though to me the biggest surprise snow storm of all time, and probably the biggest victory for this board's (Usenet, EUS, whatever) penchant to never say never, is January 2000.  Watching that baby climb the East Coast and listening Live the NWS, Accuweather, etc...scramble to explain how we went from from no snow to 12-18" was like a sweet victory.  I would argue that storm is the basis for this board today.   If it had not happened we may not be here typing this. 

I actually drove to Rehoboth Beach, DE on 1/24/2000 to watch it snow the next day because it was supposed to miss us wide right here. Ended up spending a couple of extra nights since it snowed more here than it did there. As a beach nut I was so excited to go and watch a huge storm at the ocean...oh how I wish I would have stayed home...

I don't remember the storm you're talking about...though i remember 4/6/1982 very well.   9" of cold powder WITH drifting...on April 6th. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I actually drove to Rehoboth Beach, DE on 1/24/2000 to watch it snow the next day because it was supposed to miss us wide right here. Ended up spending a couple of extra nights since it snowed more here than it did there. As a beach nut I was so excited to go and watch a huge storm at the ocean...oh how I wish I would have stayed home...

I don't remember the storm you're talking about...though i remember 4/6/1982 very well.  

You must not have been on the Usenet board at that point (2000) or you would have known better :-)

[daxx]

My favorite spring snowstorm was March 21, 2018. Two part storm. Ended up with 18.7 inches. 

[sauss06]

9 minutes ago, daxx said:

My favorite spring snowstorm was March 21, 2018. Two part storm. Ended up with 18.7 inches. 

when i started coaching high school ball i started disliking spring snow storms!

[pasnownut]

32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Feb '83 which made my list was forecast to be a 4-8" kind of deal right up until the morning it started. It quickly escalated from that to 8-16", 12-24", and finally 18-28". 

From 2-5pm I received 12" in that storm. 

forgot about that one, until you brought it up.  Yeah I remember them upping the totals every couple hours.  I remember walking up the street w/ my bro around 5-6pm and looking at the street light in awe of how hard it was snowing.  Probably the heaviest rates i had seen to that point in my life.  

[Bubbler86]

16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

I don't remember the storm you're talking about...though i remember 4/6/1982 very well.   9" of cold powder WITH drifting...on April 6th. 

After thinking about it I am going to change my memories first reaction and say mid 90's.  It was not a snow that affected a large area of the Northeast.  Most people south of the LSV, and maybe even Lancaster county, got rain but back in the Western LSV we had a surprise 4-6" but nothing like the 1982 storm you mentioned as temps were very marginal in the one I am thinking of.