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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not gonna lie.  I feel much better seeing the eps run after that terrible gefs run. Sigh of relief, for now. Lol

The way I look at it, being near the boundary in January and maybe the first half of February means we are near the moisture.  December and later Feb into March we need better patterns but just a standard SW/NE flow will do just fine mid winter as long as there is no SE Ridge.

 

 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Ended up being about 60 cars involved in the crash, 46 people hospitalized...several seriously injured and 2 deaths one from PA one from MI.

That's terrible...Glad I avoided 80 yesterday, I was going to go home that way. You got tractor trailers and cars driving on snow covered roads going 70mph. What's really scary is a tractor trailer pulling doubles. Makes one wonder how many have actually drove in snow.

Hopefully between Christmas and New Years we will be able to pick up a storm.

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59 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Voyager out. I guess I'll stick to lurking and just post obs and keep my opinions to myself.

 You provide insight and post information no one else can give and a perspective that no one else can as well. I am a fan of you posting and a fan in general of hearing from someone who does what you do for a living so I hope you stay and speak your mind fully. Your opinion on these things in general is the one that truly matters here, so I hope you stay and post whatever you feel!

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1 hour ago, pawatch said:

That's terrible...Glad I avoided 80 yesterday, I was going to go home that way. You got tractor trailers and cars driving on snow covered roads going 70mph. What's really scary is a tractor trailer pulling doubles. Makes one wonder how many have actually drove in snow.

Hopefully between Christmas and New Years we will be able to pick up a storm.

Glad you made it safe my friend! Those squalls are something that make me cringe each time they develop....nothing you can do in a whiteout.

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Kinda dead weather wise so thought it'd be fun to ask forum which snow storms are your favorites or dearest to your memory? For me I have three. One was in March of 2011 I believe...it was a rain to snow transition storm that we actually had ongoing flooding during the transition to snow. It thumped the rest of the night snow and ended with close to 11 inches total. My second favorite was Presidents Day 2003...nice powdery snow and had close to 15 inches. My favorite as of now was the March 2017 heavy snow event...best rates I've ever witnessed and measured 18.9 inches even after settling some.

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3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Kinda dead weather wise so thought it'd be fun to ask forum which snow storms are your favorites or dearest to your memory? For me I have three. One was in March of 2011 I believe...it was a rain to snow transition storm that we actually had ongoing flooding during the transition to snow. It thumped the rest of the night snow and ended with close to 11 inches total. My second favorite was Presidents Day 2003...nice powdery snow and had close to 15 inches. My favorite as of now was the March 2017 heavy snow event...best rates I've ever witnessed and measured 18.9 inches even after settling some.

Jan 1996 for me.  I lived in a row home in Philly, with a one way street and cars parked on both sides, and the whole neighborhood had to pitch in and dig out the 30"  from the road/block as there was never going to be a plow getting down that street.  We had chairs in our parking spaces for a week or two afterwards.

 

 

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1. March 1993 1(18" of snow, 65mph wind, 4" of sleet. I had a solid snow cover for 15 days in mid-March. Likely never again)

2. January 1996 (30.5", ended up with 44" for the week)

3. February 1983 (5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm, heaviest snow I've ever seen. Ended up with 24.5") 

 

Brian, I have a hard time ranking that week in January 1996 with February 2010. I had the same amount of snow both weeks. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1. March 1993 1(18" of snow, 65mph wind, 4" of sleet. I had a solid snow cover for 15 days in mid-March. Likely never again)

2. January 1996 (30.5", ended up with 44" for the week)

3. February 1983 (5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm, heaviest snow I've ever seen. Ended up with 24.5") 

 

 

Wow 65 mph gusts in snow is incredible....d*mn I wish I remember that storm.

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Jan 1996 for me.  I lived in a row home in Philly, with a one way street and cars parked on both sides, and the whole neighborhood had to pitch in and dig out the 30"  from the road/block as there was never going to be a plow getting down that street.  We had chairs in our parking spaces for a week or two afterwards.

 

 

1996 was a monster down there in Sounds like...cool story almost seems surreal thinking of that much snow.

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2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

Glad you made it safe my friend! Those squalls are something that make me cringe each time they develop....nothing you can do in a whiteout.

No there isn't, but what I do is keep an eye to the sky and look well ahead and watch for "haze" on the mountains. When I see that, I anticipate that a squall can pop at any moment and am prepared to slow or find a ramp to pull off onto until it passes.

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1. March 1993 1(18" of snow, 65mph wind, 4" of sleet. I had a solid snow cover for 15 days in mid-March. Likely never again)

2. January 1996 (30.5", ended up with 44" for the week)

3. February 1983 (5" of snow between 4pm and 5pm, heaviest snow I've ever seen. Ended up with 24.5") 

 

Brian, I have a hard time ranking that week in January 1996 with February 2010. I had the same amount of snow both weeks. 

 

 

2009-2010 definitely had the most snow for a season total. It beat 96 by 1.5 inches. At least at my house.

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10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

1996 was a monster down there in Sounds like...cool story almost seems surreal thinking of that much snow.

1996 was modeled to miss south until about 48 hours or so before the event. It was one of those great storms where during the final hours before the event the amounts getting increased. Dramatically.

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14 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Wow 65 mph gusts in snow is incredible....d*mn I wish I remember that storm.

That storm blew out the windows in the old Spectrum in Philadelphia. Flyers were home and playing at the time. Game was suspended after the 1st period. Winds in Philly gusted to hurricane force. That storm was modeled incredibly, especially at that time. It seemed certain that the entire east coast was going to be crushed 5-7 days out.

You would have appreciated the severe aspect of it...squall line raced through Florida with tornadoes and wide spread damage. 

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