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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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1 minute ago, daxx said:

It’s all about location with this one. For my area complete bust so far. One county west they are well with in range.

I'v always found it intriguing, how micro climates still exist within general regions (ie peidmont).  While in general Trainers mindset of being burnt more than not is true for most everyone in the forum, like you stated someone still cashes in while others largely sit on sidelines...thats my point.  In fairness to Trainer, it was always a light qpf event for part 1, but if you look in the MA forum, many are on the snow board this morning (best forcing was slated a little south of, so its understandable. 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I'v always found it intriguing, how micro climates still exist within general regions (ie peidmont).  While in general Trainers mindset of being burnt more than not is true for most everyone in the forum, like you stated someone still cashes in while others largely sit on sidelines...thats my point.  In fairness to Trainer, it was always a light qpf event for part 1, but if you look in the MA forum, many are on the snow board this morning (best forcing was slated a little south of, so its understandable. 

Yea...closer to the actual warm front really helped. You could see the precip riding along it. As you stated best forcing. 

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Well, @ItstrainingtimeSorry to say you busted for me.  I've ended up with a dusting.  Nothing on sidewalks, maybe at best 0.2" on cartops and the grass.

Congrats bubbler and cashtown.  I thought last night we were headed for 2" for real this time.  Any white before January is a bonus for these parts.  Like you I just keep my expectations low.  We'll see what round 2 decides to do.  Temp now 31.1 degrees with 28 degree dew point.

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19 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

boy i wish i was north of 80 tonight.  Looks like a nice little event for them.  

I was just looking at that full length 12z HRRR too. Looks like I'll be riding the mix line for awhile as per usual. I'm hoping to at least maintain sleet for awhile over freezing rain as well as seeing maybe a couple more hours of snow on the front end of the main precip. That main batch of precip looks like it will be moderate to heavy, so that may hold down the column enough where it's marginal to perhaps score some more snowfall in the counties between the turnpike and I-80. 6z NAM kind of hinted at that too.  

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11 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I was just looking at that full length 12z HRRR too. Looks like I'll be riding the mix line for awhile as per usual. I'm hoping to at least maintain sleet for awhile over freezing rain as well as seeing maybe a couple more hours of snow on the front end of the main precip. That main batch of precip looks like it will be moderate to heavy, so that may hold down the column enough where it's marginal to perhaps score some more snowfall in the counties between the turnpike and I-80. 6z NAM kind of hinted at that too.  

unfortunaely dp's are up so not much help there.  Yeah, we need good rates to score frozen down here.  Heh...just looked at the nooner NAM's and tippy top of Lanco flirts w/ frozen for round 2 through the whole next round.  If you look at snow panels (and understand the flaws within) - one can see the wet/frozen lines - and thats what i use them for in situ's like this.  

namconus_asnow_neus_18.png

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32 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, @ItstrainingtimeSorry to say you busted for me.  I've ended up with a dusting.  Nothing on sidewalks, maybe at best 0.2" on cartops and the grass.

Congrats bubbler and cashtown.  I thought last night we were headed for 2" for real this time.  Any white before January is a bonus for these parts.  Like you I just keep my expectations low.  We'll see what round 2 decides to do.  Temp now 31.1 degrees with 28 degree dew point.

I busted for a whole lot of us. On to the next one! (I don't expect any more snow down here from round #2) 

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5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

unfortunaely dp's are up so not much help there.  Yeah, we need good rates to score frozen down here.  Heh...just looked at the nooner NAM's and tippy top of Lanco flirts w/ frozen for round 2 through the whole next round.  If you look at snow panels (and understand the flaws within) - one can see the wet/white lines - and thats what i use them for in situ's like this.  

 

Yea obviously the TT snowmaps are quite flawed with mix scenarios, but the 12z NAM does continue to show the first few hours of the heavy precip temporarily cooling the column just a bit at the 850 and 925mb levels, and for places like State College and Harrisburg north and west that may be just enough for several hours of frozen before WAA aloft eventually does win out overnight. 

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17 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea obviously the TT snowmaps are quite flawed with mix scenarios, but the 12z NAM does continue to show the first few hours of the heavy precip temporarily cooling the column just a bit at the 850 and 925mb levels, and for places like State College and Harrisburg north and west that may be just enough for several hours of frozen before WAA aloft eventually does win out overnight. 

I edited my bolded part after you got to it, as i changed snow to frozen, as that is the delineation that i was meaning to highlight

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