Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[CarlislePaWx]

Just before 10:00am it's 29.3 degrees here.  Radar looks like steady light freezing rain should be starting over me shortly.  I was going to mention this yesterday morning like I do once each winter.  The pressure reached 30.71" here yesterday morning.  Whenever the barometer reaches or exceeds 30.70" there is usually a freezing rain event that follows that within 24 to 48 hours.  Looks like it's going to get "messy" around here for the next few hours.  I'm not expecting me to reach 32 until at least noon.

[MAG5035]

Pretty healthy dose of pingers currently with a glaze of ice. Sure hope road crews were at least somewhat ready to deal with this stuff this morning because it could turn into a lot of problems real quick. 

[daxx]

6 hours later and there is no maps with pretty colors on the 12z gfs for the 21st and 22nd storm. I hope some are keeping a tally of the snow these maps have given us so far this season. It's kind of crazy!

[Santa Clause]

Gfs shows little bit of light wintry precip before rain for Monday storm, NAM looks similar. 

[daxx]

I'm not saying the storm is a fail yet. It's a long way out.  The problem with the snow maps, it sucks in the weenies.  If we have an all snow situation and we are close to the event then I'm down with snow maps.  Done with rant. Lol

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm not saying the storm is a fail yet. It's a long way out.  The problem with the snow maps, it sucks in the weenies.  If we have an all snow situation and we are close to the event then I'm down with snow maps.  Done with rant. Lol

I'm with you buddy...I think we average somewhere north of 300"/winter just based off snow maps...and that includes the almighty ECMWF...

[Superstorm]

6 hours later and there is no maps with pretty colors on the 12z gfs for the 21st and 22nd storm. I hope some are keeping a tally of the snow these maps have given us so far this season. It's kind of crazy!

Snowfall maps outside 3 days is a joke.


.

[pawatch]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Pretty healthy dose of pingers currently with a glaze of ice. Sure hope road crews were at least somewhat ready to deal with this stuff this morning because it could turn into a lot of problems real quick. 

Up here the road crews were out treating bridges this morning just before the onset.

Depending on the location 29-31 degrees.

Mag looks like you could be in a good spot for some snow this weekend.

[CarlislePaWx]

Just before 1:30pm it continues to freezing rain here.  Temp is 31.1 degrees, dew point 29.  I have recorded 0.17" of rainfall of which some has frozen on different surfaces.  Haven't made any attempts to go out and try walking on sidewalks.  Prefer to just stay in until temp is safely above 32.  I'm a little surprised that CTP has absolutely nothing issued advisory-wise for the ice.

[daxx]

12z Euro a little better for Monday.  Waa precip looks better.  Surface temps hover in the low 30s Monday night with liquid falling.  Maybe we can score an inch or two and some crust, before it goes to  all rain.  Maytown your two inch theory may work out here.  

[Santa Clause]

We had ice covered roads over Sulphur Springs In Montgomery where I'm at

21 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Up here the road crews was out treating bridges this morning just before the onset.

Depending on the location 29-31 degrees.

Mag looks like you could be in a good spot for some snow.

Pawatch I've wondered what event is that snow map from in your picture?

[pawatch]

4 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

We had ice covered roads over Sulphur Springs In Montgomery where I'm at

Pawatch I've wondered what event is that snow map from in your picture?

 

[Itstrainingtime]

12 minutes ago, daxx said:

12z Euro a little better for Monday.  Waa precip looks better.  Surface temps hover in the low 30s Monday night with liquid falling.  Maybe we can score an inch or two and some crust, before it goes to  all rain.  Maytown your two inch theory may work out here.  

It's worked well for many, many years. Sometimes you have to know your climate in relation to the players on the field. And all costs, ignore snow maps. They'll let you down ALMOST every time. 

[Santa Clause]

13 minutes ago, pawatch said:

 

Ahhh...I remember this well. The rare Williamsport mauler.

[sauss06]

23 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Just before 1:30pm it continues to freezing rain here.  Temp is 31.1 degrees, dew point 29.  I have recorded 0.17" of rainfall of which some has frozen on different surfaces.  Haven't made any attempts to go out and try walking on sidewalks.  Prefer to just stay in until temp is safely above 32.  I'm a little surprised that CTP has absolutely nothing issued advisory-wise for the ice.

Looks like the temps start rising 4-5pm. I'd be happy if the rain slows down a little for this evening. Daughter graduates at Shipp, i'll be soaked walking to the building. 

[Santa Clause]

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

Looks like the temps start rising 4-5pm. I'd be happy if the rain slows down a little for this evening. Daughter graduates at Shipp, i'll be soaked walking to the building. 

Congrats to her Sauss, proud moment for sure!

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

Congrats to her Sauss, proud moment for sure!

Thanks bro. she worked hard to graduate early with her masters. 

@CarlislePaWx i'm surprised too that CTP didn't say much. It was pretty hairy all around. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Well, it took 3 hours longer than I originally guessed, but I'm not at all surprised the cold held on this long.  Partly that's because the rain stopped over an hour ago (with 0.20" measured) and it's just been freezing drizzle up until right now.  At 3:07pm I officially cracked freezing with a temp of 32.2 degrees.  Our sidewalks were treated before the event (so someone was paying attention to the likelihood of some freezing rain), so they remained just wet.  However all the shrubs and trees have a light glaze of ice with small icicles hanging.

>>Congrats, Sauss on your daughter's accomplishment!  Seems like serious job opportunities require post-graduate degrees now like a masters or doctorate.

[daxx]

Fog is starting to thicken up here. Steady temp at 33.

[canderson]

Haven’t seen this dense of fog in a few years. Fog is beautiful but scary when driving on dark backroads. 
 

Reminds me of a time in Texas we were crossing a lake and the fog on the bridge was so thick you couldn’t see the pavement. We had to stop and let someone out to walk in front of the car to avoid hitting the concrete barrier (curbing bridge). If anyone had come up behind us we’d have died I’m sure.  That was probably the 2nd scariest experience I’ve ever had in a vehicle. (First was caught in a tornado off I-20 outside Dallas at 8:30 pm one April. I’ll never forget that noise, shaking, fear)

[daxx]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Haven’t seen this dense of fog in a few years. Fog is beautiful but scary when driving on dark backroads. 
 

Reminds me of a time in Texas we were crossing a lake and the fog on the bridge was so thick you couldn’t see the pavement. We had to stop and let someone out to walk in front of the car to avoid hitting the concrete barrier (curbing bridge). If anyone had come up behind us we’d have died I’m sure.  That was probably the 2nd scariest experience I’ve ever had in a vehicle. (First was caught in a tornado off I-20 outside Dallas at 8:30 pm one April. I’ll never forget that noise, shaking, fear)

Yea it is nasty outside.  Very thick fog.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 hours ago, daxx said:

12z Euro a little better for Monday.  Waa precip looks better.  Surface temps hover in the low 30s Monday night with liquid falling.  Maybe we can score an inch or two and some crust, before it goes to  all rain.  Maytown your two inch theory may work out here.  

The 18z Euro keeps the @Itstrainingtime theory alive as well. Monday looks like we have a few hours of snow & most of us get 2-3 inches. Then we change to a prolonged period of mixed sleet & freezing rain. Then by later Monday evening we might go over to plain rain.

[Anduril]

Can we just not with this fog? I thought people couldnt drive when it rained but damn

[Blizzard of 93]

12 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

What an awful cutoff across Lanco...

I had to say it.  

That there is gonna be the "Marysville Mauler" 

I claim naming rights. 

Ha! Yes, “Marysville Mauler” would be a great snowstorm name!  Of course I would love for all of CTP, even including all Lancaster to cash in as well.

The 18z GEFS still supports the idea of a coastal storm next Sunday into Monday. It would be nice to get some other model support beyond the Op GFS showing a good coastal every other run.

We have a long way to go, but it sure would be a great way to kick off Christmas week with a coastal snowstorm. One can dream a little bit, especially this time of year...

Here is the 18z GEFS. There are several good hits among the ensemble members. The mean storm position is in a great spot for us. Let’s see what what the 0z runs bring tonight.

 

[Santa Clause]

Nam looks like snow to rain Monday...we just need initial precip to be heavier.

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

Haven’t seen this dense of fog in a few years. Fog is beautiful but scary when driving on dark backroads. 
 

Reminds me of a time in Texas we were crossing a lake and the fog on the bridge was so thick you couldn’t see the pavement. We had to stop and let someone out to walk in front of the car to avoid hitting the concrete barrier (curbing bridge). If anyone had come up behind us we’d have died I’m sure.  That was probably the 2nd scariest experience I’ve ever had in a vehicle. (First was caught in a tornado off I-20 outside Dallas at 8:30 pm one April. I’ll never forget that noise, shaking, fear)

 

4 hours ago, daxx said:

Yea it is nasty outside.  Very thick fog.

So I was reading these posts before my wife and I went out this evening...we were driving up 743 towards Elizabethtown and it got to the point where I couldn't see. Got to a spot where the road makes a sharp left turn...well, we didn't. Slid right on off the road. All is well, but we were shaken for a few minutes.

Yeah - it was bad out. 

[daxx]

25 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

So I was reading these posts before my wife and I went out this evening...we were driving up 743 towards Elizabethtown and it got to the point where I couldn't see. Got to a spot where the road makes a sharp left turn...well, we didn't. Slid right on off the road. All is well, but we were shaken for a few minutes.

Yeah - it was bad out. 

Mike...I'm glad you and your wife are all good!  I'm familiar with the area you are speaking of.  There are a couple of  sharp turns on that road. One at west ridge road and the other after that before you go down the steep hill.

[canderson]

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

So I was reading these posts before my wife and I went out this evening...we were driving up 743 towards Elizabethtown and it got to the point where I couldn't see. Got to a spot where the road makes a sharp left turn...well, we didn't. Slid right on off the road. All is well, but we were shaken for a few minutes.

Yeah - it was bad out. 

Yikes glad you’re okay.

Fog here has lifted greatly in the past hour. 

[Itstrainingtime]

32 minutes ago, daxx said:

Mike...I'm glad you and your wife are all good!  I'm familiar with the area you are speaking of.  There are a couple of  sharp turns on that road. One at west ridge road and the other after that before you go down the steep hill.

 

31 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yikes glad you’re okay.

Fog here has lifted greatly in the past hour. 

Thanks guys, all is well. And Brian, it was at Ridge Road. I knew it was coming but never saw it. Fog has diminished around here somewhat as well. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro improved our chances of getting a few inches of snow on Monday  followed by a prolonged period of ice. It still shows surface temperatures at 32 or below for even the LSV through midnight late Monday night.

I’m really not a fan of ice, but I don’t mind it as much when it tops a few inches of snow.