Flatheadsickness Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 Early pattern looks good for winter to me. Its fukn only Dec 12 . Any snow before Dec 10 in theses parts is a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: I hope you're right! I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. On the plus side, and has been commented a lot I believe, this year is already better than last as far as not having to deal with a frying pan December. I know we in or near the LSV were already at 5-10" by this point but a warm December and Christmas is the worst. Still could be warm by the time we get there but so far so good with only occasional spikes in temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 56 minutes ago, canderson said: I hope you're right! I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. I’m not saying your wrong. You could be 100% right. I just see it differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, canderson said: I've had a gut feeling all fall this winter will be a very poor one for us LSV folks so I'm not getting any hopes up at all. We had such a good year last year (no big, big storm after that first one but we were above climo) that we have to pay the piper. I agree and have punted already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, daxx said: I’m not saying your wrong. You could be 100% right. I just see it differently. I'm telling people 30" - 45" this winter. We'll see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I agree and have punted already Thanks Eskimo Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: On the plus side, and has been commented a lot I believe, this year is already better than last as far as not having to deal with a frying pan December. I know we in or near the LSV were already at 5-10" by this point but a warm December and Christmas is the worst. Still could be warm by the time we get there but so far so good with only occasional spikes in temps. We did end November slightly above normal didn't we, even with the early cold? Today feels like a real winter day, for sure! Next two weeks look unsettled for sure, here's hoping we get some temp cooperation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 For this weekend's rainer, I'm kind of liking the NAM's dryslot idea. In my world, the idea of an all day, moderate soaker, while I drive into, out of, and sit for 8 hours in NYC, is not a particularly pleasant way to spend a Saturday afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 12, 2019 Share Posted December 12, 2019 8 hours ago, sauss06 said: This month is crazy for me. Saturday is only day to cut down a tree, so yeah, a lil less rain would be awesome. Tuesday morning may be a plowable event It's kind of crazy we just haven't had much cold air in place. Usually in this time period in December we have had a decent snow. Good Luck cutting your tree down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 2 hours ago, canderson said: I hope you're right! I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. Based on what?? Please let us know what your seeing? Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity. NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases. Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud. I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 12, 2019 Author Share Posted December 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm telling people 30" - 45" this winter. We'll see... Really dont think you are off your rocker (weather wise anyway ). Especially if the LR looks that seem to be morphing into an active early winter pattern shaping up. Not saying blockbuster, but run of the mill offerings isnt as far fetched as some may think. Really liking seeing the NAO popping and the PNA heading pos. Split flow as some models are hinting at, can be fun times round here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 3 hours ago, canderson said: We did end November slightly above normal didn't we, even with the early cold? Today feels like a real winter day, for sure! Next two weeks look unsettled for sure, here's hoping we get some temp cooperation. November ended up just over 2 degrees BELOW normal at MDT... Here you go courtesy of CTP. THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2019... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 AVG. MAXIMUM 50.9 53.1 -2.2 48.0 AVG. MINIMUM 32.5 35.1 -2.6 35.3 MEAN 41.7 44.1 -2.4 41.7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Based on what?? Please let us know what your seeing? Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity. NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases. Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud. I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future. Yes, many late nights on the way. This pattern is loaded with potential for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Maybe I'm reading it wrong but gfs seems to not have very much waa precip before 850s warm above freezing on Mon Night event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said: Maybe I'm reading it wrong but gfs seems to not have very much waa precip before 850s warm above freezing on Mon Night event. No you got it right. GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not). has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east. Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm. At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes. From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind. Welll thats how i do it anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 13, 2019 Author Share Posted December 13, 2019 and as I said the other day, the closer/quicker we get precip in here on the heels of the weekend rainer, the better, as any WAA will be coming into a cooler column, and thats how we can get frontended a bit. Based on GFS pattern, any appreciable frozen is not likely IMO. Taint too quickly. Gotta hope the Euro wins the day and we have a chance for some fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: No you got it right. GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not). has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east. Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm. At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes. From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind. Welll thats how i do it anyway. Thanks for the info man, seems we just need the precip to come in fast and heavy instead of light and late like the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Man this is a ton of rain coming Friday and Saturday. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Yeah, and unfortunately could be adding more Tuesday from looks of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 "G" is dreaming of a White Christmas. @daxx turn your eyes away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 I’m dreaming of a blizzard a few days before Christmas & the 6z GFS delivered for CTP ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 sign me up fella's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Are temps going to be an issue Monday/Tuesday? Looks a little warmer to me they what i originally thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: "G" is dreaming of a White Christmas. @daxx turn your eyes away. What an awful cutoff across Lanco... I had to say it. That there is gonna be the "Marysville Mauler" I claim naming rights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Perry county has issues. roads are sheets of ice, wrecks all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 8 minutes ago, sauss06 said: Perry county has issues. roads are sheets of ice, wrecks all over. It's 35 and just cloudy here. That sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Looks like a lot of areas are near the critical point right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's 35 and just cloudy here. That sucks. i was at 32 when i posted that, i'm now at 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 Just now, sauss06 said: i was at 32 when i posted that, i'm now at 31 Dews are low enough for temps to drop slightly at the onset of precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 13, 2019 Share Posted December 13, 2019 29/25 here with freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now