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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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8 minutes ago, daxx said:

The 12 Euro is still a nice hit.  We mix in parts of the lsv but still a nice thump down here.  North and west looks to be mostly snow. Surface temps stay below 32. We are walking a fine line with this system.  We are going to go through a lot of ups and downs with this. Hopefully its mostly ups!

I'll take less snow with a layer of ice. It's called preserving the 'pack!   :) 

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I like the look of the 18z GFS for tonight for the LSV. There is a massive temperature contrast between only a few hundred miles. Temps in western PA are in the low 30’s while temperatures are still holding near 60 along the NJ to VA coast. The front is taking its time & there is a ton of precip back well to our south & west that will move northeast towards our region as temps drop tonight. 

 

 

E30A6758-1D00-4DD3-9DEE-1D5C23F98E40.png

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27 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Down to 35 with first flakes mixing in 

see my post from earlier.  I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2".  41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain.  meh

I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry.  Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop.  We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me.  Enjoy your snow gang.  I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.  

 

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15 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

see my post from earlier.  I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2".  41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain.  meh

I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry.  Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop.  We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me.  Enjoy your snow gang.  I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.  

 

I think it's a pretty safe bet something white falls here later...just not sure about ground truth. 

Edit: rain/snow mix here now and 36. 

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21 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

see my post from earlier.  I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2".  41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain.  meh

I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry.  Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop.  We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me.  Enjoy your snow gang.  I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.  

 

The 12z Euro was very interesting again for next Tuesday into Wednesday. 

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Yeah i was traveling today and really didnt get to see but bits and pieces in the MA forum.  If thats not enough, look at the Christmas miracle that a few op runs are throwing up....

Like I said, definately not a boring pattern and one that given enough opps...can produce.  Biggest takeaway of late is that the warm signal that was showing up seems to be getting beat down pretty well, and NAO looks to trend to the negative as the month progresses.  Just need the PNA to not go neg and we might be in for some fun. 

Last years cutterville express was hard on the stomach, and it would be nice to be looking to the south....and not the west for a change.

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54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think it's a pretty safe bet something white falls here later...just not sure about ground truth. 

Edit: rain/snow mix here now and 36. 

yeah, I agree and figured we may get a few hours of snow, but rates have been my biggest concern as the ground truth is its just too warm for much to accum, cept for the the grassy surfaces.  Trust, me I'm fine w/ eatin crow while looking at a snow covered landscape....cause I still win in the end....  i've got a new smoker, so I'll try anything once :).  gnight gang.

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28 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah i was traveling today and really didnt get to see but bits and pieces in the MA forum.  If thats not enough, look at the Christmas miracle that a few op runs are throwing up....

Like I said, definately not a boring pattern and one that given enough opps...can produce.  Biggest takeaway of late is that the warm signal that was showing up seems to be getting beat down pretty well, and NAO looks to trend to the negative as the month progresses.  Just need the PNA to not go neg and we might be in for some fun. 

Last years cutterville express was hard on the stomach, and it would be nice to be looking to the south....and not the west for a change.

I just took a look at the rest of the 18z GFS. You are right about no shortage of opportunities for winter storms. This storm a few days before Christmas, if it verified, would certainly get everyone feeling very Merry!

 

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8196268B-8BB6-4B84-A06D-5ECBFBF2E968.png

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7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Did it even snow at MDT? No signs of anything if so. 

Im sitting in Etown and they got a nice dusting over here. Not clinging to everything like it was at my house though. 

At home we got about 1-1.5" and it looked rather pretty with everything frosted.  Pretty morning.

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10 hours ago, pasnownut said:

see my post from earlier.  I have you as the winner of this current deal w/ 2".  41 here w/ rain....plain ol rain.  meh

I'm still happy that are are close to the snow, as it beats the heck outta warm n dry.  Looks like next week will be fun to watch as there are no overwhelming signals, but enough going on that something may pop.  We're trackin and thats part of the fun for me.  Enjoy your snow gang.  I'm betting on some mashed taters down here, and if i'm wrong....I'll be glad to admit it.  

 

Believe I was the biggest loser.   Just a Trace here.    Hope everyone did better than me 

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5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Believe I was the biggest loser.   Just a Trace here.    Hope everyone did better than me 

Thankfully i was joking when i said it, as i was concerned you were too far west, based on last 2 days of trends.  Waiting to hear how the chester/philly /md line crew faired as this appeared to be "their" storm...if you want to call it that.  

onto the big rainer.....then we wait for next week, as there seems to be a couple of decent events in the offing.  SER seems to once again be a fly in the snow ointment and I hope it doesnt spoil too many parties this year.  The flow pattern isnt a clean one IMO.

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Im sitting in Etown and they got a nice dusting over here. Not clinging to everything like it was at my house though. 

At home we got about 1-1.5" and it looked rather pretty with everything frosted.  Pretty morning.

I didn't measure this morning but it seemed like close to 1" here in Maytown...probably a little less than that. Looks nice out though!

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29 minutes ago, daxx said:

With today’s snowfall I sit at 3.4 inches so far this season. 

I'm going to go with 1". Sounds like it might have been a bit more given what @anotherman and a few others around me measured. With 1", I'm now at 3.3" for the season. 

Which makes sense as you are the local snow magnet! 

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Had about a quarter inch in Tamaqua, a dusting in Hazleton, and about the same until I got past Hamburg on 61, then about a quarter to half inch the rest of the way to Lancaster. Sitting at Sight & Sound Theater right now, and the sun is eliminating whatever had accumulated here.

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