Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[canderson]

20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I like weather extremes good or bad but it feels great honestly  About to turn the A/C on as it is up into the 70's in the house.  LOL

Wow I just checked my thermostat (our new HVAC has a wifi thermostat I can control on my iPhone and it is one of the best things ever) and it shows the indoor temp is 70. Crazy. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wow I just checked my thermostat (our new HVAC has a wifi thermostat I can control on my iPhone and it is one of the best things ever) and it shows the indoor temp is 70. Crazy. 

Yea, those things are great being hooked to the internet and all.  I just checked your thermostat also and it is on 71 now!  :-).

 

 

[canderson]

39 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, those things are great being hooked to the internet and all.  I just checked your thermostat also and it is on 71 now!  :-).

 

 

Hey thanks. Did you also set the Roomba to clean up and check our Nest cams for our sleeping cat? 

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Hey thanks. Did you also set the Roomba to clean up and check our Nest cams for our sleeping cat? 

When I checked the Roomba was sleeping and the cat was cleaning up so you are running a tight ship there.

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

So no one is going to post the 18z Happy hour GFS ?

@pasnownut must have passed out when he took a look at it !

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

So no one is going to post the 18z Happy hour GFS ?

@pasnownut must have passed out when he took a look at it !

Ok, so I couldn’t resist posting the 18z GFS

This is for  @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime 

This should be a fun few days of tracking!

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, so I couldn’t resist posting the 18z GFS

This is for  @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime 

This should be a fun few days of tracking!

 

 

Ha! It's nice to look at and nothing more at this point. So much volatility and moving pieces that it will be 2-3 days before anyone has any idea about what might happen. Probably the safest thing to say right now is it's highly unlikely the final outcome will match those maps.

[Bubbler86]

49 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, so I couldn’t resist posting the 18z GFS

This is for  @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime 

This should be a fun few days of tracking!

 

 

 

 

 

You will make @Voyager wreck the bus with maps like this. 

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP had a very well written & very exciting Forecast Discussion this evening. Here is what they said about this weekend’s event:

The bigger impact weather visits our region for an approx 48 hour period from Sat afternoon through Monday afternoon. Operational Models and Ensemble Forecast Systems (EFS) then begin to differ (to a relatively minor degree) with the onset of the precip Sat afternoon/evening (as mainly snow/sleet). Then, the spread with precip type widens for Sat night through Sunday night as the GFS/GEFS are about 6-10 hour faster than the EC model suite for the location of the closed, 528-533 dam upper low over the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Delmarva Coast. Worth noting though is the favorable track of the well-defined mid/upper level feature for a classic one-two, winter storm punch comprised of significant frozen/freezing precipitation within the warm conveyor belt, then a changeover to cold conveyor belt moderate snow with the potential for embedded, mesoscale bands of heavy snow with the low to mid-level deformation area. We have taken the middle ground of the GEFS/EC and Nat`l Blend of Models for precip timing and type for now, and expect that models/EFS will be steadily converging over the next day or two, to give us a much better idea of the target areas and timing of significant icing potential from freezing rain/snow, then heavy snow during the second half of the storm Sunday into Monday. Although high temps Saturday will be above freezing (initially) in the mid 30s (north) to upper 30s and low 40s (south), very dry air and sub- freezing Wet Bulb temps throughout all layers of the atmos will support a 4-8 hour period of light to moderate snow later Sat afternoon and night before warm advection aloft nudges max wet bulb temps aloft to about 1-4C late Sat night/Sunday to bring a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Heights/thickness crash later Sunday into early Monday as the potent 700-500 mb low slides by near the Mason/Dixon Line.

 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Ok, so I couldn’t resist posting the 18z GFS

This is for  @pasnownut & @Itstrainingtime 

This should be a fun few days of tracking!

 

 

Was out getting food for hunting camp.  Thanks for the desert....boy now how do we make this verify?  I'll be up north, but would be glad to see my southern crew get some love from above while I watch from afar.  Sounds perverted does'nt it?  Lol's

fwiw i just peeked and CMC is showing some fun as well.  If this holds until Friday, ya'll may need to dust off the shovels.  Heck I even get into the action in Tioga.  Should would be nice.

 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

CTP had a very well written & very exciting Forecast Discussion this evening. Here is what they said about this weekend’s event:

The bigger impact weather visits our region for an approx 48 hour period from Sat afternoon through Monday afternoon. Operational Models and Ensemble Forecast Systems (EFS) then begin to differ (to a relatively minor degree) with the onset of the precip Sat afternoon/evening (as mainly snow/sleet). Then, the spread with precip type widens for Sat night through Sunday night as the GFS/GEFS are about 6-10 hour faster than the EC model suite for the location of the closed, 528-533 dam upper low over the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians and Delmarva Coast. Worth noting though is the favorable track of the well-defined mid/upper level feature for a classic one-two, winter storm punch comprised of significant frozen/freezing precipitation within the warm conveyor belt, then a changeover to cold conveyor belt moderate snow with the potential for embedded, mesoscale bands of heavy snow with the low to mid-level deformation area. We have taken the middle ground of the GEFS/EC and Nat`l Blend of Models for precip timing and type for now, and expect that models/EFS will be steadily converging over the next day or two, to give us a much better idea of the target areas and timing of significant icing potential from freezing rain/snow, then heavy snow during the second half of the storm Sunday into Monday. Although high temps Saturday will be above freezing (initially) in the mid 30s (north) to upper 30s and low 40s (south), very dry air and sub- freezing Wet Bulb temps throughout all layers of the atmos will support a 4-8 hour period of light to moderate snow later Sat afternoon and night before warm advection aloft nudges max wet bulb temps aloft to about 1-4C late Sat night/Sunday to bring a wintry mix of snow/sleet/freezing rain. Heights/thickness crash later Sunday into early Monday as the potent 700-500 mb low slides by near the Mason/Dixon Line.

 

wow....quite bullish for CTP to be tootin the snow horn this soon.  Sure is good to hear.

 

[PaulyFromPlattsburgh]

Congrats  

[Itstrainingtime]

@Blizzard of 93 I just saw the CTP discussion you posted from last evening. Have to say that's one of the most bullish ones I've ever seen from them. Having said that, I believe it was one of the red taggers in the sub to our south say yesterday that this is a storm that no one should either dismiss or count on...way too much can go wrong. (or right) 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 hours ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Congrats  

For a whole lot of us, that map as depicted would be a big-time kick in the groin...

[Bubbler86]

54 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For a whole lot of us, that map as depicted would be a big-time kick in the groin...

All that digital snow is gone 6 hours later.  The models continue to drive the ULL too far north ...central VA is not good enough for at least the southern 2/3 of PA with these much above normal temps in place plus it places the developing coastal too far north.  We need a Carolina Cruiser of a low to cause a real vacuum to suck in cold air fast after the WAA or most here will just see rain Sunday.  Not much rain at that.  

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

All that digital snow is gone 6 hours later.  The models continue to drive the ULL too far north ...central VA is not good enough for at least the southern 2/3 of PA with these much above normal temps in place plus it places the developing coastal too far north.  We need a Carolina Cruiser of a low to cause a real vacuum to suck in cold air fast after the WAA or most here will just see rain Sunday.  Not much rain at that.  

I'm actually rooting against this one. Wife and kids are traveling Sunday to the mountains of North Carolina...last year, they were racing a storm that dropped between 18" and 30" across the High Country, and now it's looking like they might have some travel concerns this year as well.

I'm rooting for the 12/5 storm.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 0z Euro & CMC Ensembles both show a few inches of snow from the weekend system, primarily with the front end.

The question then becomes how much impact do we see from the interaction between the upper low & coastal low.

 

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 0z Euro & CMC Ensembles both show a few inches of snow from the weekend system, primarily with the front end.

The question then becomes how much impact do we see from the interaction between the upper low & coastal low.

 

 

 

Another year, more model qpf differences.  LOL.  Here is the Pivotal EC Accumulated Snow map.

 

EDIT-Just noticed you were posting ensembles, my mistake. 

 

[pasnownut]

11 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Ha! It's nice to look at and nothing more at this point. So much volatility and moving pieces that it will be 2-3 days before anyone has any idea about what might happen. Probably the safest thing to say right now is it's highly unlikely the final outcome will match those maps.

if one looks at the 6z gfs, that proves your point perfectly.  Setup has always been somewhat skeptical to me with no troughing here in the east to let this thing fester.  Progressive look says move along....not boom to my eye. 

I do think we potentially see some front side and backside (typical NW locals), but think thats about it.  I wanna be wrong here so don't shoot me.  Regardless it will feel like the season and for that I'm thankful.

Happy pre Turk Day all.  Lots to be thankful for.

Nut

edit - and when I say front side and back side, I mean just mood kinda stuff, but not much more than that (Typical LES might grab a couple inches).  

 

[pawatch]

@NWSStateCollege
10h
A very complex storm system looks like it will affect #PAwx this weekend. Mixed precipitation is likely with multiple changes of precipitation type possible between later Saturday into Monday. Too far out in time for any specifics. Stay tuned! This storm will affect travel. pic.twitter.com/b3RkaWKxqK

 

[canderson]

This system looks to be a nightmare to forecast. I'd guess down in the LSV we see very minimal frozen but it could get slick quickly.

Also my alma mater upset Duke last night sooooo congratulate me lol. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

This system looks to be a nightmare to forecast. I'd guess down in the LSV we see very minimal frozen but it could get slick quickly.

Also my alma mater upset Duke last night sooooo congratulate me lol. 

WOW! What a win, and congrats....on Duke's home court. That is insane. AWESOME.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

This system looks to be a nightmare to forecast. I'd guess down in the LSV we see very minimal frozen but it could get slick quickly.

Also my alma mater upset Duke last night sooooo congratulate me lol. 

The Bain Train pulls into the station. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

This system looks to be a nightmare to forecast. I'd guess down in the LSV we see very minimal frozen but it could get slick quickly.

Also my alma mater upset Duke last night sooooo congratulate me lol. 

I've heard you talk about the 'Horns on here but I've never once heard a mention of Stepen F. Austin. They were like 28 point dogs last night! 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've heard you talk about the 'Horns on here but I've never once heard a mention of Stepen F. Austin. They were like 28 point dogs last night! 

Two degrees, it's just natural for me to talk about the Horns so much more since people actually know who they are haha. 

[pasnownut]

24 minutes ago, canderson said:

Two degrees, it's just natural for me to talk about the Horns so much more since people actually know who they are haha. 

what horns???

sorry, no idea here.....Bash away.  I'm a big boy and can take the beatin.

[Voyager]

Im really not liking this one as I just picked up Sunday work now as well. Taking a group to MetLife Stadium for the Packers/Giants game. No snow/ice please...

[Itstrainingtime]

24 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

what horns???

sorry, no idea here.....Bash away.  I'm a big boy and can take the beatin.

Texas Longhorns.  

[Bubbler86]

Nam is suggesting Saturday daytime will just be dry now.  This whole thing is slowing down.

[WmsptWx]

59 minutes ago, canderson said:

Two degrees, it's just natural for me to talk about the Horns so much more since people actually know who they are haha. 

They pounded West Virginia in the tournament a few years back. I'm not too surprised that they beat Duke. In Cameron Indoor? Yeah, but not in general.