Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[Bubbler86]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

BTW Bubbles....I still like you and hope your not mad at me forever.  While I have my work cut out with converting you from warm to cold, you seem to know your shit.  I respect that...

Its just weather buddy.  

 

I am not mad at you. I am still struggling to figure out how I am considered "warm" though.  :-).  I rarely will post a negative no snow for you in immediate response to someone who thinks otherwise but I sometimes post original content stating my opinion and I find blown warm forecasts or grossly warm by average periods interesting re: yesterday  we got to 41 here which was a big bust on the high side.  I love snow storms and I love sniffing out or discussing events where models are wrong...warm or cold.   I am on the west side of the South Mountain Range so we will warm here faster than people just over the hill from me like @Cashtown_Coop.  I actually keep his weather station link handy to compare.   There are still ice covered tree limbs 2 miles to my east Blue Ridge Summit. 

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hey Blizz,

Just so you take into consideration that some of the meh posts are right.  This week you contradicted a comment I made about posters in the MA that were saying things like Mid-Late January (Red Tagger Millville openly threw out the first half of winter whether you consider that Mid January or late January).  If you are just looking for posts that are positive then you will never like me as I am trying to post and discuss the weather good or bad :-).  In their defense I will say that people throwing out time periods a month past the time of the post are obviously going to be wrong most of the time but they are entitled to post as much as anyone else.

 

 

I like most of your posts. I’m not just looking for positive posts. I think that you always bring good information & I think you are entertaining. For example, I liked the bowling ball post. 

As long as posters back up their information with something, then sure, they should go ahead & post  all their negative “we’re doomed” thoughts.

I just don’t like when one of our good posters puts up a quality post, & then someone comes on here & says “meh” or “probably not” or “I have a bad feeling” while adding Nothing of any value whatsoever to the conversation.

Again @Bubbler86, this is not you, but just just in general. We have a guy on here that despite a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches, will come on here & say “I bet MDT is lucky to get an inch”, based on nothing but trying to stir people up. That kind of stuff gets tiring & can push good posters away.

 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

I am not mad at you. I am still struggling to figure out how I am considered "warm" though.  :-).  I rarely will post a negative no snow for you in immediate response to someone who thinks otherwise but I sometimes post original content stating my opinion and I find blown warm forecasts or grossly warm by average periods interesting re: yesterday  we got to 41 here which was a big bust on the high side.  I love snow storms and I love sniffing out or discussing events where models are wrong...warm or cold.   I am on the west side of the South Mountain Range so we will warm here faster than people just over the hill from me like @Cashtown_Coop.  I actually keep his weather station link handy to compare.   There are still ice covered tree limbs 2 miles to my east Blue Ridge Summit. 

Warmish....??

Just kidding.  

You punting this week really threw me when you stated 1/3 of winter gone. Maybe you just had a bad day.  I think the last 1/3 or your 1/3 is salvageable.  That's all.

No doubt this period is tough as we seemed to miss a window.  Absolutely nothing wrong w/ calling it as you see it.  Its all good dude. 

Lets move beyond and not crud up the disco thread w/ too much "banter" . I dont want to be called out for doing what Im not a fan of...but democracy rules in this sub forum.

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

For the record I don’t think we need a pattern change so much as we need to wait for climo to become more favorable to the current pattern along with some minor adjustments (tpv relocation)  A -NAO -PNA works much better the later in winter we get.  It’s harder to offset the pacific airmass early when there is less depth of cold across NAM.  As that changes and wavelengths shorten later in winter the same pattern becomes more favorable  additionally there are some minor tweaks that can happen earlier to make this dominant look workable.  Get the TPV out of NW Canada.  Either press it over the top or get it to drop into Quebec.  But with it at that latitude it’s an issue.  When it slides west it’s feeding into the EPO trough and flooding NAM with pac puke airmass.  When it slides east it’s displacing the NAO ridge too Far East.  It’s a no win scenario there.  If we can displace the tpv (and I doubt such a compact tpv sits there all winter, it’s not like it’s a big blue ball everywhere up top) we can work with a -NAO -pna pattern even sooner (Xmas on) if we can get some ridging into the epo domain.  Doesn’t need to be perfect but enough to stop the raging pac jet onslaught and get split flow.  I’ve been saying that for a while and now guidance is hinting at exactly that progression.  I can’t take credit for that, just blind luck, but I like what I’m seeing.

@Blizzard of 93 

thank you 

@Itstrainingtime

There are a few posters who are overly provincial in the mid atl sub (they even proposed breaking that sub into sub subs once) but most are fine with guests who contribute something of substance and are respectful.  Just don’t throw up deck picks when you know it’s raining there.  

@Bubbler86

I live about 2 miles from the PA line. And I have lived in Hazleton, State College, and Pine Grove PA. I am very familiar with PA climo. I will defend the mid atl posters on this point...it is a LOT harder for them to luck into a good snowfall in a bad pattern. My climo here, being on top of parr’s ridge helps also, is the same as much of PA. We can luck into a decent snow in most patterns. It’s very rare down near DC without certain specific pattern markers that know to look for. Keep in mind DC averages about 15” but their “median” yearly snowfall (a better indicator of normal imo) is about 10”.  A 4”+ event there is pretty rare and almost never happens in a bad pattern, unlike up here. 

@pasnownut

those mjo plots can conceal a lot. COD can mean a low amp wave or stronger waves in conflicting phases. Right now there are multiple waves giving conflicting signals.  Going forward it looks like a mess of convection with no dominant wave. Not sure how anyone can make a declarative forecast based off that. 

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like most of your posts. I’m not just looking for positive posts. I think that you always bring good information & I think you are entertaining. For example, I liked the bowling ball post. 

As long as posters back up their information with something, then sure, they should go ahead & post  all their negative “we’re doomed” thoughts.

I just don’t like when one of our good posters puts up a quality post, & then someone comes on here & says “meh” or “probably not” or “I have a bad feeling” while adding Nothing of any value whatsoever to the conversation.

Again @Bubbler86, this is not you, but just just in general. We have a guy on here that despite a winter storm warning for 6-12 inches, will come on here & say “I bet MDT is lucky to get an inch”, based on nothing but trying to stir people up. That kind of stuff gets tiring & can push good posters away.

 

I think some people use these boards as a bit of an emotional crutch.   I am guilty of it on occasion when it shows snow and I know I have to travel.  I will try to keep those posts to a minimum :-).  I do like posts from @Voyager though as he is here looking for info to help him do his job and I do not see him being negative as opposed to wanting more info to help be safe. 

 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Warmish....??

Just kidding.  

You punting this week really threw me when you stated 1/3 of winter gone. Maybe you just had a bad day.  I think the last 1/3 or your 1/3 is salvageable.  That's all.

No doubt this period is tough as we seemed to miss a window.  Absolutely nothing wrong w/ calling it as you see it.  Its all good dude. 

Lets move beyond and not crud up the disco thread w/ too much "banter" . I dont want to be called out for doing what Im not a fan of...but democracy rules in this sub forum.

 

 

 

And just to finalize my thought I said that if the MR models are right the first third of  meteorological winter is gone.  I guess I did not need to post it but after listening to tons of "HM has his shovel" posts over the last two weeks I felt like a reality check was needed and to point out how wrong the twitter heads ended up being.  I guess in the end that post was an anti long range forecasting post.  Have a good Saturday.  

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For the record I don’t think we need a pattern change so much as we need to wait for climo to become more favorable to the current pattern along with some minor adjustments (tpv relocation)  A -NAO -PNA works much better the later in winter we get.  It’s harder to offset the pacific airmass early when there is less depth of cold across NAM.  As that changes and wavelengths shorten later in winter the same pattern becomes more favorable  additionally there are some minor tweaks that can happen earlier to make this dominant look workable.  Get the TPV out of NW Canada.  Either press it over the top or get it to drop into Quebec.  But with it at that latitude it’s an issue.  When it slides west it’s feeding into the EPO trough and flooding NAM with pac puke airmass.  When it slides east it’s displacing the NAO ridge too Far East.  It’s a no win scenario there.  If we can displace the tpv (and I doubt such a compact tpv sits there all winter, it’s not like it’s a big blue ball everywhere up top) we can work with a -NAO -pna pattern even sooner (Xmas on) if we can get some ridging into the epo domain.  Doesn’t need to be perfect but enough to stop the raging pac jet onslaught and get split flow.  I’ve been saying that for a while and now guidance is hinting at exactly that progression.  I can’t take credit for that, just blind luck, but I like what I’m seeing.

@Blizzard of 93 

thank you 

@Itstrainingtime

There are a few posters who are overly provincial in the mid atl sub (they even proposed breaking that sub into sub subs once) but most are fine with guests who contribute something of substance and are respectful.  Just don’t throw up deck picks when you know it’s raining there.  

@Bubbler86

I live about 2 miles from the PA line. And I have lived in Hazleton, State College, and Pine Grove PA. I am very familiar with PA climo. I will defend the mid atl posters on this point...it is a LOT harder for them to luck into a good snowfall in a bad pattern. My climo here, being on top of parr’s ridge helps also, is the same as much of PA. We can luck into a decent snow in most patterns. It’s very rare down near DC without certain specific pattern markers that know to look for. Keep in mind DC averages about 15” but their “median” yearly snowfall (a better indicator of normal imo) is about 10”.  A 4”+ event there is pretty rare and almost never happens in a bad pattern, unlike up here. 

@pasnownut

those mjo plots can conceal a lot. COD can mean a low amp wave or stronger waves in conflicting phases. Right now there are multiple waves giving conflicting signals.  Going forward it looks like a mess of convection with no dominant wave. Not sure how anyone can make a declarative forecast based off that. 

thanks for "stopping in".  

To be clear, i'm not making a forecast, i'm making a correlation based on lack of dominant forcing and remembering how the MJO seemingly stuck a fork in much of our winter last year (to my eyes anyway

reading your post above, you bring up stong points.  In my eyes, I see the NAO forcing the TPV or parts of it underneath into the conus, hence my suspicion of ridging getting suppressed as we get beyond Christmas.  IF that NAO signal diminishes (as we know it can), then I'm eating a lot of crow.  Thats how I see one way out.  PNA looks to go slightly + so that coupled w/ NAO heading favorable is only now being picked up on ENS guidance.  

 

[psuhoffman]

@pasnownut 

I didn’t think you were, but some others are. One of my pet peeves are people (some of them brilliant Mets) that focus on one pet project of theirs.  They might be experts at the Strat or mjo, or snow/ice correlations, whatever...but they will focus on that even when the pattern is being driven largely by other influences. No one factor controls all this. If it did this game would be a lot easier. 

[pasnownut]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

And just to finalize my thought I said that if the MR models are right the first third of  meteorological winter is gone.  I guess I did not need to post it but after listening to tons of "HM has his shovel" posts over the last two weeks I felt like a reality check was needed and to point out how wrong the twitter heads ended up being.  I guess in the end that post was an anti long range forecasting post.  Have a good Saturday.  

Yeah, one thing for sure, is that even the best can be wrong....and to your point, that is the takeaway for all of us.  NOONE has the answers....we all just enjoy looking for them.

btw, Voyager can look all he wants for travel update here.  Noone can blame him for that.  I think he now understands that saying he hopes it doesnt happen because of his job is a kick in the kahunas to snow hounds.  Of course we wish him safe travels.

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@pasnownut 

I didn’t think you were, but some others are. One of my pet peeves are people (some of them brilliant Mets) that focus on one pet project of theirs.  They might be experts at the Strat or mjo, or snow/ice correlations, whatever...but they will focus on that even when the pattern is being driven largely by other influences. No one factor controls all this. If it did this game would be a lot easier. 

That is a most excellent point.  If I have a strength in this, its that I like to look at the WHOLE picture, to see how one affects the other (like i stated above).  Unfortunately my meteo knowledge has boundaries, but part of me thinks that can work to my advantage, as like you suggest, focusing on 1 part of the picture can diminish the ability to see the whole picture.  

MJO scares me but as you know, base state is diff this year, so thats why I'm putting a little more weight on tellies for now.

[pasnownut]

Guys, i'm out for the day.  Time to start Christmas shopping (24 stops to clients in last 1 1/2 weeks has set me back a bit).

Someone find us a snowstorm today!  Ok??

Check back tonight, hopefully for a happy hour w/ cocktail or beer in hand.

 

[Bubbler86]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

I live about 2 miles from the PA line. And I have lived in Hazleton, State College, and Pine Grove PA. I am very familiar with PA climo. I will defend the mid atl posters on this point...it is a LOT harder for them to luck into a good snowfall in a bad pattern. My climo here, being on top of parr’s ridge helps also, is the same as much of PA. We can luck into a decent snow in most patterns. It’s very rare down near DC without certain specific pattern markers that know to look for. Keep in mind DC averages about 15” but their “median” yearly snowfall (a better indicator of normal imo) is about 10”.  A 4”+ event there is pretty rare and almost never happens in a bad pattern, unlike up here. 

 

I live quite close to your climo being just over the state line, into PA,  about two miles N/E of Ringold  but about 200 feet down from you at 805 feet for my elevation. I can get to over 2000+ feet in just minutes though if I need to feel better.  High Rock and Mount Quirauk are visible out my front door. Ha.    You have a great point as it pertains to their ability to win in what I would call a more zonal regime because the southern 2/3 of that forum will very frequently end up on the wrong side of the boundary so my insistence that wringing hands over pattern is less worrisome up here.  But I still believe the end result of said wringing is so often wrong, and quite frequently very wrong, that  it is counter productive.  If I were a teen and just getting interested in weather that MR/LR thread would push me away from it.  And many people mix up the discussion between apparent and pattern weather talk.  Outside the zonal/boundary chances people south of DC need a pressing then slightly retreating high to have a decent chance of a snow storm.  That could happen in almost any pattern and is indeed more likely to have a positive effect in prime climo.  If you want a KU then we need a block but otherwise I feel it all comes down to timing of the moisture interacting with said HP and luck is the final determiner.  Pattern talk is anyone's right but I think it is weighed WAY too much as to what it is worth.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

1. ) March 1993 - 24 inches of snow, crazy sustained wind with gusts & heavy drifting. The impacts up & down the east coast were historic. This storm is what made me fall in love with the weather. I can’t imagine what this forum would be like if we ever had a storm approach that magnitude.

2.) January 2016 - 30 inches of snow that shattered the all time record at MDT by 6 inches. I know that records are made to be broken, but I don’t know if we will beat that in my lifetime.

3.) February 2003 - The President’s Day storm was spectacular because of its duration & frigid temperatures during the first half of that storm. That Sunday morning light to moderate snow began with temps near 10 degrees if I recall correctly. The low was still back in the southern Plains, but precip stretched the whole way to the east coast. It snowed all day Sunday, & then the coastal portion of the storm took over. We had heavy snow until almost noon on Monday & ended up with 24 inches.

One thing about the Superstorm of 1993...it was labeled a "once in 500 year storm" for a reason. We'll see our share of big snowstorms going forward but it's HIGHLY unlikely we'll ever experience a storm of that magnitude in our lifetime or for generations to follow. It is the storm that all storms will be measured against.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing about the Superstorm of 1993...it was labeled a "once in 500 year storm" for a reason. We'll see our share of big snowstorms going forward but it's HIGHLY unlikely we'll ever experience a storm of that magnitude in our lifetime or for generations to follow. It is the storm that all storms will be measured against.

It was what I believe to be the biggest statewide  snow producer in modern Florida history.   1977 may be up there as well.  Regardless of my Florida connections I still find snow/frozen down there an interesting thought process especially accumulating like in 1993.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Hey Blizz,

Just so you take into consideration that some of the meh posts are right.  This week you contradicted a comment I made about posters in the MA that were saying things like Mid-Late January (Red Tagger Millville openly threw out the first half of winter whether you consider that Mid January or late January).  If you are just looking for posts that are positive then you will never like me as I am trying to post and discuss the weather good or bad :-).  In their defense I will say that people throwing out time periods a month past the time of the post are obviously going to be wrong most of the time but they are entitled to post as much as anyone else.

 

 

I totally understand why people don't want to read "meh" or negative posts. It drains energy. It's depressing. It's not fun snd and it's not what we want to read.

Truth is...being meh about something usually is correct 90% of the time. I've seen snow maps posted in this thread this season already that have added up to many feet. So far my ground truth is just over 3".

As nut said I'm ready to move on now as well. Let's work on getting something that will make all of us happy.

[Santa Clause]

Lol this is some high level weather talk going down in here....just let me know when we have a big'n coming so I can have my beer stocked up!

[Bubbler86]

22 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol this is some high level weather talk going down in here....just let me know when we have a big'n coming so I can have my beer stocked up!

Your beer should be stocked up regardless, right :-).

I am going to make a prognostication that I have seen enough in the MR runs trying to make it snow here,  Jan 1st-5th, that I think we all get accumulating snow then though if you look at the EC right now it is cutter, cutter, cutter.  Other guidance has vacillated back and forth on trying to set up a more zonal flow or even east coast trough in that period and if that were to happen we are in line for something. 

 

[anotherman]

Just my opinion.....why would anyone want sugarcoating? Yeah it sucks when we have weeks on end of 40s and 50s in midwinter. But wishcasting should be reserved for accuweather forums or twitter.

[canderson]

33 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Lol this is some high level weather talk going down in here....just let me know when we have a big'n coming so I can have my beer stocked up!

Dude the next two weeks are holidays and probably full of family. You’ve failed if you don’t have a beer stockpile.

[canderson]

16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Your beer should be stocked up regardless, right :-).

I am going to make a prognostication that I have seen enough in the MR runs trying to make it snow here,  Jan 1st-5th, that I think we all get accumulating snow then though if you look at the EC right now it is cutter, cutter, cutter.  Other guidance has vacillated back and forth on trying to set up a more zonal flow or even east coast trough in that period and if that were to happen we are in line for something. 

 

It’s been a good while we’ve had a snowstorm kick off the Farm Show iirc. 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s been a good while we’ve had a snowstorm kick off the Farm Show iirc. 

Yea, I hardly hear anyone say "farm show weather" anymore.  It would be good to get that train back on track.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I live quite close to your climo being just over the state line, into PA,  about two miles N/E of Ringold  but about 200 feet down from you at 805 feet for my elevation. I can get to over 2000+ feet in just minutes though if I need to feel better.  High Rock and Mount Quirauk are visible out my front door. Ha.    You have a great point as it pertains to their ability to win in what I would call a more zonal regime because the southern 2/3 of that forum will very frequently end up on the wrong side of the boundary so my insistence that wringing hands over pattern is less worrisome up here.  But I still believe the end result of said wringing is so often wrong, and quite frequently very wrong, that  it is counter productive.  If I were a teen and just getting interested in weather that MR/LR thread would push me away from it.  And many people mix up the discussion between apparent and pattern weather talk.  Outside the zonal/boundary chances people south of DC need a pressing then slightly retreating high to have a decent chance of a snow storm.  That could happen in almost any pattern and is indeed more likely to have a positive effect in prime climo.  If you want a KU then we need a block but otherwise I feel it all comes down to timing of the moisture interacting with said HP and luck is the final determiner.  Pattern talk is anyone's right but I think it is weighed WAY too much as to what it is worth.

I don’t enjoy pattern talk. I think most of us prefer breaking down a specific synoptic threat but when there is nothing of any realistic probability to discuss in the next 10 days down there because we’re locked in a no hope shut the lights pattern (for DC) obviously the discussion turns to “when will the pattern change”. 

Now that specific scenarios are showing you will see that discussed. Keep in mind they spend a greater portion of winter without legit threats to talk about compared to us.  Even if a fluke run or two might show some snow down there without any of the pattern markers (epo, pna, NAO) they know better than to believe them or take it seriously. 

[daxx]

4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing about the Superstorm of 1993...it was labeled a "once in 500 year storm" for a reason. We'll see our share of big snowstorms going forward but it's HIGHLY unlikely we'll ever experience a storm of that magnitude in our lifetime or for generations to follow. It is the storm that all storms will be measured against.

1993 was the  biggest, most disruptive storm for a large area. For me 1996 and 2016 is the only time I topped 30 inches in one storm.  It almost doubled what I received in 1993.  Not trying to downplay the power of that storm, it just doesn’t live up to the others in the snow department in my local area. That’s why it didn’t even make my list.  

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

 

btw, Voyager can look all he wants for travel update here.  Noone can blame him for that.  I think he now understands that saying he hopes it doesnt happen because of his job is a kick in the kahunas to snow hounds.  Of course we wish him safe travels.

Thanks for the kind words, and yes, I do realize it's a kick in the kahunas to wish the snow away. I think more than wishing it away, though, is trying that I'm trying to emphasize why I don't always like it.

Now if we could just train mother nature and old man winter to only let it snow on my days off... 

[Santa Clause]

28 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Thanks for the kind words, and yes, I do realize it's a kick in the kahunas to wish the snow away. I think more than wishing it away, though, is trying that I'm trying to emphasize why I don't always like it.

Now if we could just train mother nature and old man winter to only let it snow on my days off... 

Or at least get a huge one that shuts stuff down...those two inch clippers that everything is open yet it's icy and a mess are the worst.

[Cashtown_Coop]

5 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

I am not mad at you. I am still struggling to figure out how I am considered "warm" though.  :-).  I rarely will post a negative no snow for you in immediate response to someone who thinks otherwise but I sometimes post original content stating my opinion and I find blown warm forecasts or grossly warm by average periods interesting re: yesterday  we got to 41 here which was a big bust on the high side.  I love snow storms and I love sniffing out or discussing events where models are wrong...warm or cold.   I am on the west side of the South Mountain Range so we will warm here faster than people just over the hill from me like @Cashtown_Coop.  I actually keep his weather station link handy to compare.   There are still ice covered tree limbs 2 miles to my east Blue Ridge Summit. 

Same on this side of the ridge.   I took these pictures today just west of the house 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Guys, i'm out for the day.  Time to start Christmas shopping (24 stops to clients in last 1 1/2 weeks has set me back a bit).

Someone find us a snowstorm today!  Ok??

Check back tonight, hopefully for a happy hour w/ cocktail or beer in hand.

 

The best that I could do in terms of finding snow at 12z is the Canadian on New Year’s Eve & the GFS on January 5th.

 

[Voyager]

What's with CTP snow hole this year so far? 

[Flatheadsickness]

93 had it all, even the weather before and after is part of whole memory for me .  I believe it was march 12 of 93 my friends and I made are first seasons trip to the local farm pond to catch a few lunkers in are shorts and tea shirts, then we spent most that unseasonably warm evening gathering  firewood, cigarettes and herbs for the neighborhood  party fort in preparations for the storm Chuck Roads and Mark Mancuso was getting me and my friends all fired up for. After the storm I remember one of the coldest most crisp high pressures systems In my memory . I have never seen the sky as blue as it was for three days after the storm since that storm . The bob sled trails and igloos we built after the storm still ring in infamy today around these parts . I remember plenty of deep snow form that great snow decade bit I only remember One Blizzard. I only got 19" form the blizzard but its still the storms of storms in my mind.

[Flatheadsickness]

6 hours ago, anotherman said:

Just my opinion.....why would anyone want sugarcoating? Yeah it sucks when we have weeks on end of 40s and 50s in midwinter. But wishcasting should be reserved for accuweather forums or twitter.

 My thinking would be because Its the first day of winter and long range is almost always dead wrong for are area.