Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[canderson]

Definitely a cold one this a.m. That wind overnight was much stronger than forecast, I had multiple gusts over 36. 

[pawatch]

Canderson  I also was surprised by the strong winds last night.

Low here was 17 this morning. Definitely invigorating.

We all have seen storms suddenly come together that we weren't expecting...keeping fingers crossed.

[sauss06]

31 minutes ago, canderson said:

Definitely a cold one this a.m. That wind overnight was much stronger than forecast, I had multiple gusts over 36. 

I was curious as to the gusts. Thanks

[pasnownut]

10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Lots of punting on first down in the MA thread.   Have to smirk that my comment of not seeing much through Jan 1 caused such disdain yesterday and now the theme is mid to late Jan over there. 

And now they do it in the banter thread, and its modded by mappy/uswaf/h2o/chill.  Post it in the discussion thread...go ahead.  It'll be deleted, or moved to banter as soon as someone posts it.  They too have asked to keep it weather related out of respect for those that really put time into their profession/hobby.   

Lets be crystal clear, I'm all about fun banter.  It does make our forum a bit more lighthearted and fun, and for that, I'm as guilty as the next poster.  

For those of us that really enjoy the search of snow/cold, and try to discuss only to be followed up w/ "aint happening"...."its over"....."i hate driving in it" kinda posts without adding any substance/validation just makes some folks wanna leave.  We've heard them 100's and 100's of times, and we know....we get it.  I left late last year for that very reason.  LIke i suggested, go back a bunch of years and you'll see I'm not alone in my thinking.

By and large, I leave in the warm months out of respect for those that enjoy heat and humidity and storms (even tho ya'll are a sick bunch ). Winter lovers have 3-4 months to play, and then warmies get the rest. 

I'm done w/ this....this isn't MY board, its all of ours, and I wasn't looking for an argument...I was merely asking for a little forum decorum. 

I'll continue to sift through the rubble or leave when it looks bad. 

Nut.  

 

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Canderson  I also was surprised by the strong winds last night.

Low here was 17 this morning. Definitely invigorating.

We all have seen storms suddenly come together that we weren't expecting...keeping fingers crossed.

I had 18. W just a wee bit of snow remnants from last nights squall action.

 

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Dude...it was cold. I love cold. But after about 2.5 hours I cried uncle and quickly moved the fam towards the parking lot. 

My "older" bones, cant take it like they used to.  I've got some kinda arthritic deal starting.  Time for thicker wardrobe 

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I had 18. W just a wee bit of snow remnants from last nights squall action.

 

yeah, just about everything blew away from the wind, including my garbage cans 

Stringing together some sunny days,  Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. Over night lows those days aren't hateful.

[sauss06]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

My "older" bones, cant take it like they used to.  I've got some kinda arthritic deal starting.  Time for thicker wardrobe 

me either. I recommend CBD Sauve  

[daxx]

We just had a 6-7 week period of earlier winter weather.  I don't think anyone on here can look back and say the last several weeks were crap.  We are about to go through a semi break.  Is it a week or two? Is it longer? We don't really know.  We also have to remember that a shutout in the midatlantic/DC area does not mean we are shutout around here.  I really think some people expect snow around the holidays. I think I can count on one hand maybe two that we have seen snow around the holiday period.  Our meat and potatoes are from mid January onward.   It would be great to get winter from December 1 through March 31, but we don't live on the Tug hill. Once we get our first decent event, all will be forgotten. 

[Itstrainingtime]

42 minutes ago, daxx said:

We just had a 6-7 week period of earlier winter weather.  I don't think anyone on here can look back and say the last several weeks were crap.  We are about to go through a semi break.  Is it a week or two? Is it longer? We don't really know.  We also have to remember that a shutout in the midatlantic/DC area does not mean we are shutout around here.  I really think some people expect snow around the holidays. I think I can count on one hand maybe two that we have seen snow around the holiday period.  Our meat and potatoes are from mid January onward.   It would be great to get winter from December 1 through March 31, but we don't live on the Tug hill. Once we get our first decent event, all will be forgotten. 

Terrific post. All true words. Other than 1/6/1996 and 12/18/2009, the cupboard is pretty bare on significant snows before the middle of January. Those are our facts...

Now, as  the COPP of this bunch, that doesn't mean I don't want it sooner during our peak low sun angle season. 

(COPP - Chief Of Pack Preservation) 

[daxx]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Terrific post. All true words. Other than 1/6/1996 and 12/18/2009, the cupboard is pretty bare on significant snows before the middle of January. Those are our facts...

Now, as  the COPP of this bunch, that doesn't mean I don't want it sooner during our peak low sun angle season. 

(COPP - Chief Of Pack Preservation) 

You cant forget Christmas 2002!!  Probably the best Christmas storm of all time. 

[Santa Clause]

Love the snow but hate the dry and cold especially windy dry and cold. If it's not going to snow and we have no snow pack I'll gladly take 40s and rain.

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, daxx said:

You cant forget Christmas 2002!!  Probably the best Christmas storm of all time. 

10" of wet paste...I lost power that day for hours. Can't believe I forgot, thanks...

[daxx]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

10" of wet paste...I lost power that day for hours. Can't believe I forgot, thanks...

Yea...I had no power for two days.  All our fish died in our aquarium from the upstairs of our house being so cold.  I believe at the beginning of the event ratios were like 5 to 1.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, sauss06 said:

me either. I recommend CBD Sauve  

thx  wife tried it w/ her hips (pre surgery).  I may see if she still has any "stash" 

[Bubbler86]

27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Love the snow but hate the dry and cold especially windy dry and cold. If it's not going to snow and we have no snow pack I'll gladly take 40s and rain.

How does dry and moderate/seasonal fit you with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's and 30's?  That looks like our fare for the holiday period.  Probably at least one day of 50's and 60's for highs if I had to guess. 

But the zonal flow shown on the GFS, heading into the New Year, is one that could produce for our latitude.  It lessens the chances of a cutting system. 

[Santa Clause]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

How does dry and moderate/seasonal fit you with highs in the 40's and lows in the 20's and 30's?  That looks like our fare for the holiday period.  Probably at least one day of 50's and 60's for highs if I had to guess. 

But the zonal flow shown on the GFS, heading into the New Year, is one that could produce for our latitude.  It lessens the chances of a cutting system. 

That's all good by me, I just hate the single digits and windy stuff. It's winter if I can't deal with 20s at night that's just whining lol. I'd take 12 degree highs if it meant it was snowing heavy...but 12 by itself...mehh.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

We just had a 6-7 week period of earlier winter weather.  I don't think anyone on here can look back and say the last several weeks were crap.  We are about to go through a semi break.  Is it a week or two? Is it longer? We don't really know.  We also have to remember that a shutout in the midatlantic/DC area does not mean we are shutout around here.  I really think some people expect snow around the holidays. I think I can count on one hand maybe two that we have seen snow around the holiday period.  Our meat and potatoes are from mid January onward.   It would be great to get winter from December 1 through March 31, but we don't live on the Tug hill. Once we get our first decent event, all will be forgotten. 

well stated Daxx

Something  to think about when we talk December snow/cold, and why many of us true weather weenies don't get jacked up about "missing" December:. 

The Arctic (TPV) is really still in formative stages, let alone establishing residency in various regions.  Thats why its still a bit early to be looking for good longwave/stable cold/snow in this timeframe.   To Daxx's point, once into Jan, the cold is established and becomes more stable and readily available.  We hope for disruptions/SSW events to send lobes, or the whole mother load of cold our way to get into fun n games snowwise.  We then rely on the base state (ENSO/AO/EPO/PNA and the ever illusive NAO regions to help w/ getting/keeping it close/here for when storms are looming. 

When March comes around, while lower latitudes start thinking spring, there is still plenty of stale cold avail for fun n games.  THAT is why mid jan thru mid march is the best period for snow.  Theres no dispute.  To that point, there is also no emotion involved.  Is just plain climo.  

I just as much as any, want a white Christmas, but know that its really a 15% chance at best.  Records support it and are not disputable.  Separating emotions from facts can be difficult...but setting realistic expectations keeps you out of heartbreak hotel.  

No matter, I still look forward to the holidays like no other time of year.....snow or no.   

[pasnownut]

39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

10" of wet paste...I lost power that day for hours. Can't believe I forgot, thanks...

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came.   It WAS a true Christmas miracle. 

Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle.

I'd give body parts for a redux.

[Santa Clause]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

And now they do it in the banter thread, and its modded by mappy/uswaf/h2o/chill.  Post it in the discussion thread...go ahead.  It'll be deleted, or moved to banter as soon as someone posts it.  They too have asked to keep it weather related out of respect for those that really put time into their profession/hobby.   

Lets be crystal clear, I'm all about fun banter.  It does make our forum a bit more lighthearted and fun, and for that, I'm as guilty as the next poster.  

For those of us that really enjoy the search of snow/cold, and try to discuss only to be followed up w/ "aint happening"...."its over"....."i hate driving in it" kinda posts without adding any substance/validation just makes some folks wanna leave.  We've heard them 100's and 100's of times, and we know....we get it.  I left late last year for that very reason.  LIke i suggested, go back a bunch of years and you'll see I'm not alone in my thinking.

By and large, I leave in the warm months out of respect for those that enjoy heat and humidity and storms (even tho ya'll are a sick bunch ). Winter lovers have 3-4 months to play, and then warmies get the rest. 

I'm done w/ this....this isn't MY board, its all of ours, and I wasn't looking for an argument...I was merely asking for a little forum decorum. 

I'll continue to sift through the rubble or leave when it looks bad. 

Nut.  

 

Idk how you guys stand that MA crew, a lot of them are Moody and at points downright condescending to each other but especially to anyone new/outsiders.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came.   It WAS a true Christmas miracle. 

Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle.

I'd give body parts for a redux.

This is why I so wish I didn't stop with my meticulous record keeping in 1997. My memory is not what it once was - when I think back on this event I thought it was a rain to snow scenario...I thought the night before I went to a Christmas eve service in rain, and early the next morning it changed to snow. I honestly didn't remember that it was supposed to be a snow to rain deal. So glad the rain part never came. 

The other thing I remember is getting up at an obscene time on Christmas morning. My kids were very young and woke up my wife and I sometime around 4am. That probably more than anything else has my memory of all of this messed up. 

[daxx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Waited for the dreaded changeover that never came.   It WAS a true Christmas miracle. 

Getting stuck w/ snowmobiles in tow while en route to parents.....not a miracle.

I'd give body parts for a redux.

In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before.  Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning.  Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Idk how you guys stand that MA crew, a lot of them are Moody and at points downright condescending to each other but especially to anyone new/outsiders.

I'm in that sub more than I am here, mostly due to activity and the fact that they have some absolutely dynamite posters. (Hoffman, Chill, plus several red taggers are super informative. Plus, our weather often starts down there, so there's that. 

For whatever reason they are very protective of "their house" and don't welcome outsiders well. Ask @pasnownut about that. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, daxx said:

In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before.  Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning.  Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. 

Ah hah! That is what i remember...sort of lol (I didn't remember the snow/sleet on the 24th, but I do remember the rain to snow deal) 

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, daxx said:

In my area over here we had an inch of snow and sleet the day before.  Then we had a driving poring rain early Christmas morning.  Then it switched over that morning, ended up with 10.7 inches of cement. 

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power.  That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember.  Got down into the low 40's in the house.  Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power.  That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember.  Got down into the low 40's in the house.  Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

My AC was humming as recently as Wednesday. Confession - I did turn it off first thing yesterday morning...

[daxx]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Ah hah! That is what i remember...sort of lol (I didn't remember the snow/sleet on the 24th, but I do remember the rain to snow deal) 

Yea...video taped a lot of that storm. I had standing water in parts of the yard that morning.  The best rain to snow event ever here.

[pasnownut]

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Idk how you guys stand that MA crew, a lot of them are Moody and at points downright condescending to each other but especially to anyone new/outsiders.

For me....a necessary evil of sorts lol.  If one truly loves weather, there is serious talent/knowledge in that forum...let alone a handful of active Mets.  Some of "our" crew have left here and now post primarily because of the level of convo/info to be had down there. You get a diverse blend of information and knowledge sharing.

Believe me when i say that I'd love to just stay here, because while we may not have quite the depth of knowledge....we are the coolest. 

Dont tell them i said that....its hard enough for me to "keep my place" down there.  Good Lord they are a territorial bunch. 

[daxx]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was in Carlisle that Winter and the snow was a bit more powdery from my memory but we also lost power.  That was one of the chillier nights of sleep I can remember.  Got down into the low 40's in the house.  Probably forced @Itstrainingtime to give the A/C a break as well.

It was so wet and dense, Christmas night temps dropped and you could walk on top of ten inches of snow. 

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, daxx said:

It was so wet and dense, Christmas night temps dropped and you could walk on top of ten inches of snow. 

And later that season came 27.6" in mid-February.