Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

 

Please start a banter thread.  EVERY other forum/subforum has them.  

Thanks

Non Management Weather Weenie

 

 

I do not think this group needs a banter thread.  The "banter" here keeps this group alive.   

[Itstrainingtime]

43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Just like JB says, “enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got “.

I love tracking everything from heavy coatings to historic blizzards, and everything in between.  

You stated this so well. I too am into winter storm tracking for the “shared passion of the chase & the euphoria that comes with the storm itself”.

I love the challenge of attempting to exceed our climo average snow for the season. Some years we get there easily  & other years we need a last second Hail Mary storm to get us over the top. It’s always interesting to see how our winter unfolds each season. 

We all would love to score snow consistently from mid November to early April, but it is extremely rare to get one of those top 10 type of seasons. In reality, during most years, even in good snow seasons, we experience snow droughts that last a few weeks. In the good years, we don’t remember the non-wintry periods, we just celebrate the glory of the good snow. 

Our time will come, we just need a little patience...

I first heard JB say those words many, many years ago when he was a hot shot meteorologist on Weather World. For a long time he was a favorite until he got caught up in the hype game.

[Blizzard of 93]

The MJO looks like it will emerge next week from the COD & head into phase 6 but then quickly go into phase 7 at a low amplitude. Phases 7,8,1 & 2 are the good phases for cold & snow in the heart of winter in the northeast. 

In the meantime, with the MJO in the COD & operating at low amplitude, this should let other pattern drivers take over if they have any strength.

 

[pasnownut]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The MJO looks like it will emerge next week from the COD & head into phase 6 but then quickly go into phase 7 at a low amplitude. Phases 7,8,1 & 2 are the good phases for cold & snow in the heart of winter in the northeast. 

In the meantime, with the MJO in the COD & operating at low amplitude, this should let other pattern drivers take over if they have any strength.

 

 

 

and even if they don't have much strength, that still doesn't mean we are screwed.  Timing just becomes even more critical until something takes the wheel and starts driving the snow mobile.  Surely thats not optimal, and lowers the chance at scoring, but it surely doesnt mean shutout either.  As you know NAO typically has a short lead indicator, so as we head back to neutral we can easily go back negative, and I know a couple WAY long rangers think a reemergence of Nov is a possibility.  IF we can time that with PNA or EPO, we could be liking the direction we are headed.  A big IF i know.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, pasnownut said:

and even if they don't have much strength, that still doesn't mean we are screwed.  Timing just becomes even more critical until something takes the wheel and starts driving the snow mobile.  Surely thats not optimal, and lowers the chance at scoring, but it surely doesnt mean shutout either.  As you know NAO typically has a short lead indicator, so as we head back to neutral we can easily go back negative, and I know a couple WAY long rangers think a reemergence of Nov is a possibility.  IF we can time that with PNA or EPO, we could be liking the direction we are headed.  A big IF i know.  

Yes & I just saw your posts tonight in the Mid Atlantic thread.... there are a few of us that are nowhere close to the ledge. The winter game is just getting started !

[daxx]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes & I just saw your posts tonight in the Mid Atlantic thread.... there are a few of us that are nowhere close to the ledge. The winter game is just getting started !

If there is someone on here close to the ledge on December 17 then they need to take a break for god sakes.   If you ask me we are on track for a decent Winter.   I agree with you the game has just started.

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes & I just saw your posts tonight in the Mid Atlantic thread.... there are a few of us that are nowhere close to the ledge. The winter game is just getting started !

 

Just now, daxx said:

If there is someone on here close to the ledge on December 17 then they need to take a break for god sakes.   If you ask me we are on track for a decent Winter.   I agree with you the game has just started.

Exactly. It's not a sprint, it's a marathon...

[Santa Clause]

One warning event with a few advisory types and think we'd all be happy.

[daxx]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

One thing I want to say: 

Most if not all of us are here because we love snow. It's a shared passion of the chase, the euphoria that comes with the storm itself, and the exhaustion that follows thereafter. Most of us can relate to that in some way...

At the same time, we're all very different. Some want early snow followed by early spring. Some want wall to wall winter. Some want many light to moderate snowfalls while others would exchange it all for a big crushing. Some love to watch it fall and some want to see it on the ground for weeks and weeks.

No one is more right or more wrong than the next person. We all things that WE want...and that's okay. We can all respect what others want.

Me? I want snow cover. I want it to stick around for a good long time. That means if I could choose between a 30" snowstorm or a 20" storm with a few hours of sleet on top...give me the latter please. Because...it will last. But that's me, your mileage will vary.

Enjoy the ride guys...it's the only ride we have. 

This is good stuff Mike! I want it all.  Not asking for much! Lol

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, daxx said:

If there is someone on here close to the ledge on December 17 then they need to take a break for god sakes.   If you ask me we are on track for a decent Winter.   I agree with you the game has just started.

Believe it or not, I'm one of the most fun guys i know .  I really am....

I'm not kidding...........

 

Lol's

For most here, its all about having fun and learning....especially w/ something that is a hobby/passion, but when the debbies pile on, drop pooh pooh bombs, and blow the joint up with little else to offer because they read it somewhere else or just dont feel it....Thats the grind.  Not being a jerk, but its easy to see.  Several red taggers/good posters have left because of it.  For those that have been around for a while, think about it.  For the casual crew, its all good, as they still add something when they can or feel comfy trying..at least they add to the discussion part.  

Real truth is we dont live in a big snow area, and we often scratch n scrape to get climo.  We also have anomalously good and bad years.  It happens.  Get over it, and if you dont like whats going on, take a break.  Take up poetry...basketweaving....whatevs....(no intent to offend any that partake in said hobbies).  Some of us are gonna keep sniffin out the next opp in hopes of snow.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

One Seven warning events with a few many advisory types and think we'd all be happy.

FYP  

[Santa Clause]

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

FYP  

Hahaha....I'm hoping for a Miller A blockbuster like always.

[Blizzard of 93]

25 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Believe it or not, I'm one of the most fun guys i know .  I really am....

I'm not kidding...........

 

Lol's

For most here, its all about having fun and learning....especially w/ something that is a hobby/passion, but when the debbies pile on, drop pooh pooh bombs, and blow the joint up with little else to offer because they read it somewhere else or just dont feel it....Thats the grind.  Not being a jerk, but its easy to see.  Several red taggers/good posters have left because of it.  For those that have been around for a while, think about it.  For the casual crew, its all good, as they still add something when they can or feel comfy trying..at least they add to the discussion part.  

Real truth is we dont live in a big snow area, and we often scratch n scrape to get climo.  We also have anomalously good and bad years.  It happens.  Get over it, and if you dont like whats going on, take a break.  Take up poetry...basketweaving....whatevs....(no intent to offend any that partake in said hobbies).  Some of us are gonna keep sniffin out the next opp in hopes of snow.

Yes, I couldn’t agree more with this. We have lost several good posters over the years. There used to be some red tag guys, especially from around the State College & Altoona areas, that no longer post here. I know that the NYC & Philly threads have had the same problem. Many of their good posters have created their own weather forums or left for other boards. Last year Bob Chill stopped posting for a long time because he was frustrated with all of the whining in the Mid Atlantic forum.

So yes, we must persevere through the bad times, while we look forward to better winter weather days that lie ahead.

[pasnownut]

27 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Hahaha....I'm hoping for a Miller A blockbuster like always.

been a LONNGGGG time pal.  It IS my fav. 

Classic A that takes a big drink outta da gulf and rides/drinks the whole way up the coast and bombs away off Hatteras.... only to drink so much that it stalls at the OCMD and throws up white stuff all over us.  There you have my wish list for this year (weather wise anyway).  Can you hook me up?

 

[Blizzard of 93]

17 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

been a LONNGGGG time pal.  It IS my fav. 

Classic A that takes a big drink outta da gulf and rides/drinks the whole way up the coast and bombs away off Hatteras.... only to drink so much that it stalls at the OCMD and throws up white stuff all over us.  There you have my wish list for this year (weather wise anyway).  Can you hook me up?

 

I’m going to go to sleep tonight dreaming of this classic Miller A that you described !

[MAG5035]

I'll be the first to admit that I'm bummed out that we haven't capitalized the way we could have on a very active opening 17 days of December, but we have already had a better December overall than last December as we were pretty much shut out with a less workable pattern. At least this December has taken some swings, that major storm to open up the month was very close to being a big one, just missing the region with big snows and most of us still saw something from it. And then of course, yesterdays system. I'm sure some folks are getting antsy and whatnot but expectations seem higher than usual this year given the fact that I know it seemed like every winter forecast I've come across shared on social media during the fall or even the Farmers Almanac of all things were promising big things from the winter pattern. Buying in to all that of course is always a recipe for disappointment for at least somebody. Long range forecasting for general tendencies over a coming season can be difficult enough to predict much less anything specific, especially coming into a winter with no real dominant signal (the neutral ENSO for example). We're not even a full month into meteorological winter yet (which doesn't include March) either, and we worked into a winter-like pattern quite early all the way back in early-mid November. I don't always like the super early winter pattern like that because it's hard to capitalize in the snow department in November and it usually sets up for some kind of a change/breakdown sometime in December.

I'm not worried right now going forward. It's important to remember that even our big time winters we hold near and dear normally have some rough patches in them. We're going to get a break in things in the 4-7 days that includes Christmas in the middle and no, it's probably not going to be 75ºF Xmas Eve. The pattern may not look great at the moment but I also view it as continuing to be quite changeable and not necessarily locked into anything good or bad. This moderating trend we're looking at for the holiday appears to be a split flow regime with emphasis on the split, with a progressive northern branch way too far north and no amplification to interact with the southern stream. The most dominant teleconnection I've seen appears to be the AO, which has been running positive. +AO's keep arctic air tighter to the pole which can be a reasonable explanation for perhaps why we've generally been seasonally cold at best and have had only brief colder shots this month. That is currently progged to trend negative as we get to the end of the month.

[Flatheadsickness]

4 hours ago, pasnownut said:

yep, typically low solar and period beyond can be good for lovers of winter.  I read that we were at the min, but last week FRD or someone, suggested we are still trending lower.  Hoping we can add it to our weather bag of tricks.  Just like SSW

I was trying to find a longer deration map. The only one I found could not be copied and pasted . It has not always been the case after the minimum platoughs but happens enough I defiantly think its note worthy . There is much argument among science community right now about the suns status there not even 100% sure if we are still in cycle 24 or if we have transitioned to 25. I think the historic lack of activity has the community a little confused at the moment . Either way my 20+years in aquaculture and agriculture combined with my love and observation's for weather and nature has me convinced we will have are way this year. I dont think it will be the biggest blockbuster winter but with the way some of these storms have set up there moisture  we could easily be on are way had we had the damming regimen setup we had in late September and October . Based on the fact its been years since I have seen so many blocking highs to the north (September /October) and patterns rottenly repeat a few times throughout the year before they plateau off  I am betting to see those highs again just about the time we need them . As many already know I have many unorthodox views that are coming together this year to add over time but I will keep them unattached to the Snownut name lol . 

[Flatheadsickness]

Triple phase please

[Flatheadsickness]

I know some guys are bummed about the weather coming up but sometimes that warm air makes wishes come true in huge ways . It would be one thing if it where happening on a weekly basis but seeing winter warmth  is not rearing its ugly face every few days I think its a good  thing to see a little chaos in temps when things look flat and bland. Kinda like pulling the slot machine.

[sauss06]

i always look for the positives in almost any situation. Having said that, Monday starts a 14 day vacation. looks to be a good time to work on my tan and day drink. 

 

 

 

 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Believe it or not, I'm one of the most fun guys i know .  I really am....

I'm not kidding...........

 

Lol's

For most here, its all about having fun and learning....especially w/ something that is a hobby/passion, but when the debbies pile on, drop pooh pooh bombs, and blow the joint up with little else to offer because they read it somewhere else or just dont feel it....Thats the grind.  Not being a jerk, but its easy to see.  Several red taggers/good posters have left because of it.  For those that have been around for a while, think about it.  For the casual crew, its all good, as they still add something when they can or feel comfy trying..at least they add to the discussion part.  

Real truth is we dont live in a big snow area, and we often scratch n scrape to get climo.  We also have anomalously good and bad years.  It happens.  Get over it, and if you dont like whats going on, take a break.  Take up poetry...basketweaving....whatevs....(no intent to offend any that partake in said hobbies).  Some of us are gonna keep sniffin out the next opp in hopes of snow.

This really is a great post. I say that with some conviction because I've been guilty of some of the things you're talking about. I sincerely hope that I've improved since last January, I came to understand how I was affecting others with some of my rants and I made a commitment to myself and to each of you to never go there again.

I marked a few of your words in bold. This is where I struggle as what I would describe myself as an extreme weather "nut."  My fascination with weather began in June 1972. Tropical storm Agnes was what started the journey. I was still 6 years old at the time. That year for Christmas as a 7 year old kid, my parents fostered my passion by getting me a Meteorology textbook as a gift. I still remember pushing my toys aside and sitting on our sofa and reading about all things weather for hours. By the time I was 12 I was keeping full, 365 days worth of weather notes in yearly journals. Full weather notes...daily high, low, humidity, wind direction, speed, pressure, cloud cover by percentage, and cloud types. Included with all of that was personal observations...in winter, where did the center of low pressure exit the Atlantic coast? How far offshore was it when it passed our latitude? Was it inside, over, or outside the benchmark? What was the pressure at various points? What direction was the wind? I made notes on all of that. I continued doing that until the mid to late 1990s when career/marriage/kids became a bigger priority and most of the weather data collection stopped. 

I studied meteo in school and did exceptionally well. I did not stay and get a degree. I have regrets to this day, that's another story for another time. Having said that, I've been an avid weather follower/observer for 48 years, all of which in Lancaster county. I've watched and observed too many times to count when virtually every model that I saw was wrong. Wrong when they said it was going to snow and it didn't, wrong when they said it would miss and it didn't. I will argue until I'm blue in the face that there are times when...okay, maybe a better word than feel is... past experience? Understanding of local climate? Call it what you want, but what I saw coming for my area this past Monday was little to no snow. And I felt that way even when most if not all models supported accumulating snow in our area. To me, the trajectory of the low (I mentioned this before the storm) was off for us to be under the best rates (lift, forcing) and my sense was given that, what was heading our way was going to dry out. 

I need to do a better job going forward at vetting that out so it doesn't come across as nothing more than being a deb or making wild guesses with absolutely nothing behind it. There is so much, so much that I don't know and don't understand. Obviously, there are times when things are obvious...and many times they aren't. My "feel" or experience, or local knowledge has served me well for a very long time. Our organization has a snow "cancellation" process and the executive team taps me (they really should tap Brian @daxx but I regress) to get my thoughts and opinion on what is going to happen. And sometimes conversations get awkward in the office because they're seeing snow maps on Facebook and other social media and then I have to explain to them why I think they're all wrong.

So, @pasnownut I agree with you and I take to heart what you post. You have my respect and admiration to be perfectly clear. I'm just saying that for me..."feel" matters a whole lot. I guess it's how I get to the point of why I feel the way I do that I need to share better. 

 

 

[Voyager]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 I will argue until I'm blue in the face that there are times when...okay, maybe a better word than feel is... past experience? Understanding of local climate? Call it what you want, but what I saw coming for my area this past Monday was little to no snow. And I felt that way even when most if not all models supported accumulating snow in our area. To me, the trajectory of the low (I mentioned this before the storm) was off for us to be under the best rates (lift, forcing) and my sense was given that, what was heading our way was going to dry out. 

I need to do a better job going forward at vetting that out so it doesn't come across as nothing more than being a deb or making wild guesses with absolutely nothing behind it.@daxx

Ok, I can't delete the @daxx, so it's going to show here, but I selected this part of your post to make a point.

I do believe that the best forecasters go not only by the science of meteorology, but from local experience with microclimates, terrain, and most everything else you mentioned. I don't think you can have one without the other. Case in point, my Debbie Downing summer severe events in my backyard. I know my climo and my terrain, and I know that 90% of the time, the last ridge (that I-81 rides) will eat up a line of storms. Many times, after dropping off said ridge, they reform and nail the Pocs and the Lehigh Valley. I can post with relative certainty, that storms won't be as severe here as in other locations.

Even Sandy can be taken as a case in point for what is the Tamaqua terrain and microclimate. In that storm, we were one of the few areas that DID NOT lose power or have significant wind damage. It was "relatively" calm and benign compared to places just a few miles away. Most of that night, we had some moderate gusts, but all the while, the mountains that surround the town proper were roaring like a lion. I could hear the extreme wind, but not really feel it.

Don't be afraid to post what YOU feel when it comes to YOUR location. Some will take offense, but to me, I think it makes for good discussion. Not everything has to be cut and dry technical.

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Ok, I can't delete the @daxx, so it's going to show here, but I selected this part of your post to make a point.

I do believe that the best forecasters go not only by the science of meteorology, but from local experience with microclimates, terrain, and most everything else you mentioned. I don't think you can have one without the other. Case in point, my Debbie Downing summer severe events in my backyard. I know my climo and my terrain, and I know that 90% of the time, the last ridge (that I-81 rides) will eat up a line of storms. Many times, after dropping off said ridge, they reform and nail the Pocs and the Lehigh Valley. I can post with relative certainty, that storms won't be as severe here as in other locations.

Even Sandy can be taken as a case in point for what is the Tamaqua terrain and microclimate. In that storm, we were one of the few areas that DID NOT lose power or have significant wind damage. It was "relatively" calm and benign compared to places just a few miles away. Most of that night, we had some moderate gusts, but all the while, the mountains that surround the town proper were roaring like a lion. I could hear the extreme wind, but not really feel it.

Don't be afraid to post what YOU feel when it comes to YOUR location. Some will take offense, but to me, I think it makes for good discussion. Not everything has to be cut and dry technical.

I appreciate your encouragement and your own personal anecdotes. I am a firm believer in microclimates and totally believe and understand what you're describing for your area. And...this is a discussion board, so there's that as well. Still, I need to be careful to balance things so that our thread doesn't disintegrate into a whine fest. 

Speaking of which - there are people who complain that rub me the wrong way. I'm sure I rub a lot of people wrong and that bothers me enough to want to post better. One poster who doesn't bother me is Ji. Personally, I love the dude. He has an incredible knack for whining in a way that find hilarious instead of grating. I know he PO's a lot of people but I can't tell you how many times I will literally laugh out loud at my computer reading his comments. I would miss the heck out of him if he ever stopped posting. He knows his stuff, too. 

Continue...

[Superstorm]

Experience in local weather plays a huge role.

I know that living in Lancaster, and it’s a snow to ice to rain event, 8 out of 10 times, it will change from snow to ice to rain quicker than forecasted. We don’t live close enough to those big hills that sit just west of Harrisburg and Carlisle. Our cold gets eroded fairly quickly.

Where Lancaster can overperform in the snow department comes from storms that we are fringed.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Experience in local weather plays a huge role.

I know that living in Lancaster, and it’s a snow to ice to rain event, 8 out of 10 times, it will change from snow to ice to rain quicker than forecasted. We don’t live close enough to those big hills that sit just west of Harrisburg and Carlisle. Our cold gets eroded fairly quickly.

Where Lancaster can overperform in the snow department comes from storms that we are fringed.


.

Yes! Although I'd argue that we flip quicker more like 9 out of 10 times, but your point is spot on. 

With that...ANY time we get a SE component to the wind direction, we're toast. There is nothing between us and the big pond to our east to impede warm air aloft from flipping us over. A lot of times NO models pick up on that. Doesn't matter. We're going to flip. 

[sauss06]

53 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Ok, I can't delete the @daxx, so it's going to show here, but I selected this part of your post to make a point.

I do believe that the best forecasters go not only by the science of meteorology, but from local experience with microclimates, terrain, and most everything else you mentioned. I don't think you can have one without the other. Case in point, my Debbie Downing summer severe events in my backyard. I know my climo and my terrain, and I know that 90% of the time, the last ridge (that I-81 rides) will eat up a line of storms. Many times, after dropping off said ridge, they reform and nail the Pocs and the Lehigh Valley. I can post with relative certainty, that storms won't be as severe here as in other locations.

Even Sandy can be taken as a case in point for what is the Tamaqua terrain and microclimate. In that storm, we were one of the few areas that DID NOT lose power or have significant wind damage. It was "relatively" calm and benign compared to places just a few miles away. Most of that night, we had some moderate gusts, but all the while, the mountains that surround the town proper were roaring like a lion. I could hear the extreme wind, but not really feel it.

Don't be afraid to post what YOU feel when it comes to YOUR location. Some will take offense, but to me, I think it makes for good discussion. Not everything has to be cut and dry technical.

I agree. I enjoy seeing what is happening in everyone's backyard. 

 

[canderson]

18 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Experience in local weather plays a huge role.

I know that living in Lancaster, and it’s a snow to ice to rain event, 8 out of 10 times, it will change from snow to ice to rain quicker than forecasted. We don’t live close enough to those big hills that sit just west of Harrisburg and Carlisle. Our cold gets eroded fairly quickly.

Where Lancaster can overperform in the snow department comes from storms that we are fringed.


.

Right on. And in clippers that need some CAD work Harrisburg proper more times than not will overperform. I can't tell you how many clippers have dropped 3" snow in two hours when no one really expected much of anything. I love those little things. 

Despite having somewhat of a heat island bias the city does CAD well. I assume the mountain cut immediately to the west and downsloping plays a big role there. 

[Superstorm]

Yes! Although I'd argue that we flip quicker more like 9 out of 10 times, but your point is spot on. 
With that...ANY time we get a SE component to the wind direction, we're toast. There is nothing between us and the big pond to our east to impede warm air aloft from flipping us over. A lot of times NO models pick up on that. Doesn't matter. We're going to flip. 

Even with PD2, we flipped to sleet for 3 or 4 hours because of the ESE onshore flow, while Harrisburg was bathing in white fatties.


.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Even with PD2, we flipped to sleet for 3 or 4 hours because of the ESE onshore flow, while Harrisburg was bathing in white fatties.


.

I remember it well. First big one to hit after I bought my house in Maytown. I had less sleet than Lancaster city did, but it was enough to shave a few inches off the board. 

[Superstorm]

Right on. And in clippers that need some CAD work Harrisburg proper more times than not will overperform. I can't tell you how many clippers have dropped 3" snow in two hours when no one really expected much of anything. I love those little things. 
Despite having somewhat of a heat island bias the city does CAD well. I assume the mountain cut immediately to the west and downsloping plays a big role there. 

Living in Harrisburg from 1988 to 1996, I know the benefits of those mountains....cold air hangs really tough.


.