Voyager Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Waiting for the snow/sleet mess to start. I'm off tomorrow, so I don't care what it does. I'll just sit in my living room and watch it out the window. Side note, I really hope my group has a ticket for me for Sunday, as I scored a charter to the Eagles/Cowboys game and the weather in Philly will be nice! Quote Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flatheadsickness Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Looks like we just missed a dozy today. Great looking December storm given its trajectory and lack of dig . Vigorous thunderstorm development and lightning in the south. If the storm gets much deeper I think the waa makes it farther north than expected along with the thunder:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I am sure glad this December is shaping up to be a great one per all the Twitter feeds people keep posting on the MD LR Thread! What's that? That was last week? Shorts on Christmas? Tweeting long scientific looking posts does not actually equate to snow? We will be rockin' in Mid-January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 how does the radar look for here later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 Couple raindrops w part 2. 35 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Residing right around 31ºF and the inch of snow pretty much stuck around today. Just got the driveway salted down for whatever mess is coming tonight. Browsing the weather statement and came across this. How is this not an ice storm/winter storm warning designation for Somerset, Bedford and Fulton? Quote PAZ033>035-171200- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0031.000000T0000Z-191217T1600Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, and McConnellsburg 138 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation. Additional snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around four tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Somerset, Fulton and Bedford Counties. * WHEN...Light snow will fall over the area early this morning. Precipitation will likely taper off during late morning and the afternoon, then expect sleet or freezing rain to overspread the area this evening. * IMPACTS...Untreated roads could be slippery. Isolated power outages are possible over the high terrain tonight. Up to 0.4" of ice is a significant ice event, and their ice map illustrates a pretty widespread area of 0.25"+ in those three counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 29.8 and overcast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Residing right around 31ºF and the inch of snow pretty much stuck around today. Just got the driveway salted down for whatever mess is coming tonight. Browsing the weather statement and came across this. How is this not an ice storm/winter storm warning designation for Somerset, Bedford and Fulton? Up to 0.4" of ice is a significant ice event, and their ice map illustrates a pretty widespread area of 0.25"+ in those three counties. Yeah evening runs look quite icy for some. My guess they dont want egg on their face for not calling out early on. Special weather statement is the easiest best way out for ultra short term forecast statement. This was part of my point the other day. While situs like current Dont have to mean big snows, they often can over perform with cold holding vs model outputs. For me winter weather is any sort is a win in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Additionally, it appears that CTP is angling toward the several hour period of frozen in the central counties that some of the meso models were hinting at earlier today and discussed in here, and the newer advisory products reflect as such. I'd be plenty happy if I ended up with 2-4 inches out of this whole event. Most of the Sus Valley I think will see frozen as well for at least the first few hours once the heavier precip gets back into the region. Quote Main change in thinking this afternoon is for a brief thump of heavy snow to accompany the second round of this winter storm across the West Central and Central Mountains late tonight, with most model guidance in agreement on late evening through wee morning hours (04z to 08z) being the timing of heaviest and steadiest snowfall and accumulation. Given impressive BUFKIT omega/dendritic SGZ cross- hair signature during this timeframe and nearly 10k ft deep isothermal layer down to the sfc just below freezing, think a quick 2 to locally 4" of snow is likely in the WC and C mountains late this evening and early Tuesday morning. AFter the max omega passes to the east, precip will transition to lighter mixed snow/sleet/freezing rain or perhaps just plain freezing drizzle as rates drop off come daybreak. Thinking remains similar to previous across the south with mixed precipitation redeveloping across the south mid to late afternoon and changing to sleet/freezing rain with significant icing likely over the Laurel Highlands. Change to plain rain is likely over the Lower Susq. by late evening. Perhaps the greatest concern may be the potential of isolated power outages over the Laurel Highlands, where the Freezing Rain Accumulation Model projects ice accretions of around a quarter inch. Elsewhere, expect any ice accretion to be minimal. Transition zone doesn`t make it much farther north than 5-10 miles north of I-80. Mostly snow and lighter amounts expected north of there with generally 1 to 3 inches expected over the N and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 We have decent returns over us right now with elevated surfaces freezing rain...no snow yet from the second round. 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 Going to the winter weather pages of the various office is a lesson in futility. It appears that none of the offices discussed, nor coordinated, with each other before putting out their probabilistic maps. For me (being 5 miles from both the BGM and PHL zones): CTP: 1-2 PHL: 3-4 extrapolated west BGM: 4-6 extrapolated south If I were a betting man, I'd go with CTP's numbers, but the ice potential is all over the place as well with less than a tenth (CTP), but .10 to .25 (PHL) extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 16, 2019 Share Posted December 16, 2019 I might have underestimated this round...already down to 31.6 as the rain increases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Additionally, it appears that CTP is angling toward the several hour period of frozen in the central counties that some of the meso models were hinting at earlier today and discussed in here, and the newer advisory products reflect as such. I'd be plenty happy if I ended up with 2-4 inches out of this whole event. Most of the Sus Valley I think will see frozen as well for at least the first few hours once the heavier precip gets back into the region. Bolded part matches mesos nicely and like I said this am. 80 north is jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 16, 2019 Author Share Posted December 16, 2019 32-33 with better returns n some mashed flakes mixed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 For me I'm thinking about 2.5" overnight. About the same amount that we had the other week. CTP I think has got burnt in the past and tries to stay conservative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Just now, pawatch said: For me I'm thinking about 2.5" overnight. About the same amount that we had the other week. CTP I think has got burnt in the past and tries to stay conservative We're in colder air but get less precip so it kinda is a trade one for other. Radar looking like it'll stay south for some time yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 CTP put this Special Weather Statement out for many of us this evening. I’m interested to see what that the heavy band of precip will bring that is pushing up from the southern tier towards the turnpike. Special Weather Statement National Weather Service State College PA 504 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 PAZ024>028-033>036-056>059-063>066-170115- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- 504 PM EST Mon Dec 16 2019 Bands of sleet, rain, freezing rain, and snow will continue to develop and lift northward into south central Pennsylvania this evening. While temperatures across the lower elevations were at or just above freezing, the precipitation may come down hard enough at times to result in icy spots. As the bands of precipitation lift further north this evening, the precipitation will be more in the form of snow. This will be especially the case north of Route 22. Persons traveling this evening should be alert for a wide range of conditions and allow extra travel time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Was holding out a little hope for something non-liquid with round 2 but alas it began as rain and has transitioned (barely) now to freezing rain with a temp of 31.5 degrees, dew point 29. So far 0.06" liquid from entire event. I suppose if rates really pick up some sleet could mix in but that's all I'm anticipating for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Was holding out a little hope for something non-liquid with round 2 but alas it began as rain and has transitioned (barely) now to freezing rain with a temp of 31.5 degrees, dew point 29. So far 0.06" liquid from entire event. I suppose if rates really pick up some sleet could mix in but that's all I'm anticipating for around here. All liquid here and plenty of it. Already over .25" with moderate rain currently. After falling below freezing earlier I'm back up to 32.8 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: All liquid here and plenty of it. Already over .25" with moderate rain currently. After falling below freezing earlier I'm back up to 32.8 now. I think us LSV counties are out in this one. Mesos say just north of us were where the action would/could be. I’m at 33 here which is below what I thought it would be by now but still not enough for any fun here. Enjoy northern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Precip has returned in the last hour and is arriving as straight freezing rain. Temp is 31ºF so untreated stuff is already glazed. The precip is also fairly light at the moment, so we'll see if the heavier stuff starts working on the column and frozen p-types mix back in. I would imagine with the long lull in precip today that the temps aloft were able to creep up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 17, 2019 Author Share Posted December 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Precip has returned in the last hour and is arriving as straight freezing rain. Temp is 31ºF so untreated stuff is already glazed. The precip is also fairly light at the moment, so we'll see if the heavier stuff starts working on the column and frozen p-types mix back in. I would imagine with the long lull in precip today that the temps aloft were able to creep up some. Radar just west of you appears to have snow on your doorstep. Hope you cool enough to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 CAD is holding strong on this side of the ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Light mix of precip in Marysville with a few mangled flakes every now & then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 It started as snow here in Tamaqua and lasted about 15 minutes before it flipped to freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 35 and rain in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Trying to mix some ice pellets in here. Notable feature on CCX radar (CC product) is a pretty established snow/mix line already pretty much running on I-80 and given that and mPing obs I've not really seen anything on that product that indicates to me any collapse of that southward with the column cooling enough. The knee jerk reaction to that would be that pretty much shuts down the prospect of seeing a 2 to perhaps 4 inch thump in the central counties below I-80..or in fact any additional snow at all, which would be a pretty sizable near term bust. I'll give it a couple hours but I don't like how things set up when the established precip came in, plus the new meso models haven't had it either. Williamsport still looks ok at the moment, I'd be curious to hear any obs from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Sleet here after about .5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Snowing up here. My truck has a good coating on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 17, 2019 Share Posted December 17, 2019 Impressive rain event. Between .7 and .8" and rates are borderline heavy. Just picked up my daughter from work in Elizabethtown and didn't encounter any ice on any surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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