Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[Flatheadsickness]

looks to be already on my door step already.  Eco's look deep enough shouldn't take to long to get to the ground.

[Flatheadsickness]

fist flakes 2: 32 am. . Loving life here Another great day and night for FHS.  Good luck Snomo sapiens .

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

M 1.0”

[Itstrainingtime]

18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

M 1.0”

Trace, first flakes at 4:40am.

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Trace, first flakes at 4:40am.

Good luck.   I’m going to make a run at 2” it seems.    

[daxx]

That was by far the best virga storm in awhile here. Lol...Just a very light dusting. 

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, daxx said:

That was by far the best virga storm in awhile here. Lol...Just a very light dusting. 

I left for work with "light snow", got to work...trace on the ground, nothing falling. 

[Itstrainingtime]

22 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Good luck.   I’m going to make a run at 2” it seems.    

Looks like some pretty good returns over you out there. Maybe you'll make my call for you of 2.5"?  

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like some pretty good returns over you out there. Maybe you'll make my 2.5"?  

I’m in good band now.   Flake size really increased.   
 

Fox 43 has a crew around 4 miles to my east. Shows the roads have caved lol 

[Itstrainingtime]

No surprise here. I never, ever count on much of anything from these type of events. 

E. Horst, MUWIC@MUweather

I'm not too impressed by "part 1" of this event, as light snow has struggled to move east of the SusQ River. Already an inch in some areas to the west, but little in Lanco yet. A period of light snow will develop in the next few hours, but only a coating to 1" on grass

[pawatch]

Everyone good luck with your snow totals and careful with the ice.

[Bubbler86]

I am going with about 1.5" here.  Side roads are covered. 2 hour delay in local Waynesboro schools at this point. 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am going with about 1.5" here.  Side roads are covered. 2 hour delay in local Waynesboro schools at this point. 

I'm sorry.  I forgot to include you in my guessing game last night. I had @Cashtown_Coop at 2.5" and would have had you with a similar amount. 

[sauss06]

33 with very light snow and had a dusting on the hood of my Silverado at 530 when i left for work. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm sorry.  I forgot to include you in my guessing game last night. I had @Cashtown_Coop at 2.5" and would have had you with a similar amount. 

LOL, I did not even see it...I have been so busy I have only stopped in here a few min here and there.  But thanks.

[sauss06]

Not to go backwards, but on Friday when when went to Shippensburg for graduation, i was really surprised how the cold held on there. We pulled in around 6 and it was 30 degrees. Anything metal had ice build up/icicles. Even some of the smaller vegetation was leaning over from the ice build up. It stayed below freezing until i got around the Newville exit on 81  

[pasnownut]

Nothing here in the Lanco snowhole....

My 1-2" is in trouble. 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

M 1.7”

28

light snow continues 

[Itstrainingtime]

On 12/14/2019 at 9:26 AM, Blizzard of 93 said:

I agree, this looks like a typical 2-4 inch snow to ice event, maybe ending as a little rain.

This type of event is nice because the precip shield is already well established to our west & we already have cold enough air in place. We don’t need to rely on a wave on a front or an upper low to try to produce with this storm on Monday

 

On 12/14/2019 at 9:57 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

I don't think anyone close to us gets close to 4". I don't believe this setup will produce 2" down this way. Where you live...maybe. A big maybe.

I do believe ice will be a significant problem for a whole lot of us.

@Blizzard of 93 I put in bold one word from a post of yours on Saturday morning. That one word was why I went significantly lower than any model at the time.

Trajectory was not good for us. Downsloping kills us when precip has too much of a west > east orientation. Doesn't happen 100% of the time, but it's happened way too many times in my life to ever feel good about it, that's for sure. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

M 1.7”

28

light snow continues 

C'mon...less than 1" to go! 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

@Blizzard of 93 I put in bold one word from a post of yours on Saturday morning. That one word was why I went significantly lower than any model at the time.

Trajectory was not good for us. Downsloping kills us when precip has too much of a west > east orientation. Doesn't happen 100% of the time, but it's happened way too many times in my life to ever feel good about it, that's for sure. 

I woke up briefly a few hours ago & saw a few light snow flakes in Marysville. Currently there are cloudy skies & nothing on the ground.

I thought this event would perform better when it looked like the storm was coming out in one solid push with a good precip shield meeting up with fresh cold air. Then,  the models locked on to the the 2 part storm idea & really weakened the first round as it got to PA. That’s when our chance at a widespread 1-3 or 2-4 event dissipated.

Congrats to those that are getting some snow this morning!

For the rest of us, our time will eventually arrive as we progress this winter.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I woke up briefly a few hours ago & saw a few light snow flakes in Marysville. Currently there are cloudy skies & nothing on the ground.

I thought this event would perform better when it looked like the storm was coming out in one solid push with a good precip shield meeting up with fresh cold air. Then,  the models locked on to the the 2 part storm idea & really weakened the first round as it got to PA. That’s when our chance at a widespread 1-3 or 2-4 event dissipated.

Congrats to those that are getting some snow this morning!

For the rest of us, our time will eventually arrive as we progress this winter.

Sooner or later...I got this feeling that we're going to be dancing in the wonderland...

[sauss06]

i may mow my grass on Monday.

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

i may mow my grass on Monday.

I'll be running the AC.  

[pasnownut]

34 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I woke up briefly a few hours ago & saw a few light snow flakes in Marysville. Currently there are cloudy skies & nothing on the ground.

I thought this event would perform better when it looked like the storm was coming out in one solid push with a good precip shield meeting up with fresh cold air. Then,  the models locked on to the the 2 part storm idea & really weakened the first round as it got to PA. That’s when our chance at a widespread 1-3 or 2-4 event dissipated.

Congrats to those that are getting some snow this morning!

For the rest of us, our time will eventually arrive as we progress this winter.

Yeah you could see that part1 fizzled out in the last few model runs.  With no good HP to the north to help squeeze out whatever WAA precip was headed here, it was smart to temper expectations.  With Cashtown cashin in like usual, its not to say that this was a total bust, as he is SE of the mtns just like us....he just lives where it likes to snow.  Good for you bud.

Will be interesting to see if this weekends opportunity comes back on the models, as they've lost it (middle range normalcy??).  Guess we'll find out in a couple days.

Still feels like normal Dec. around here, and we're talkin about threats.  All good by me.  Just hoping next weeks warmup gets muted as the PAC seems to want to flood the conus with warmish air around Santa time. 

 

[canderson]

Round 1 was a bust. Dusting. 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

Round 1 was a bust. Dusting. 

it would be funny to see us get our 1-2 by round 2 overdelivering.  Snowing S and W of us right now so maybe we can score before we lose thermals.

 

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah you could see that part1 fizzled out in the last few model runs.  With no good HP to the north to help squeeze out whatever WAA precip was headed here, it was smart to temper expectations.  With Cashtown cashin in like usual, its not to say that this was a total bust, as he is SE of the mtns just like us....he just lives where it likes to snow.  Good for you bud.

Will be interesting to see if this weekends opportunity comes back on the models, as they've lost it (middle range normalcy??).  Guess we'll find out in a couple days.

Still feels like normal Dec. around here, and we're talkin about threats.  All good by me.  Just hoping next weeks warmup gets muted as the PAC seems to want to flood the conus with warmish air around Santa time. 

 

Yeah...true point there.

I guess it's just getting burnt WAY too often in the past that led to my hesitation. 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah...true point there.

I guess it's just getting burnt WAY too often in the past that led to my hesitation. 

I cant argue w/ your fizzle part whatsoever.  Mountains are like snow eatin monsters for us piedmont folk (in situ's like current one).  In my mind there was enough forcing to get this done, but DP's were rather low and helped to gobble up what QPF was in them there snow clouds after the mountains got done w/ them.

Forcing is there w/ round 2, so hang onto your thermals as long as you can, and take pics....cause south and east of 80-81, your gonna lose it fast. N and W of there, you may be fine, and actually build a little snow pack.  Enjoy.

 

[daxx]

It’s all about location with this one. For my area complete bust so far. One county west they are well with in range.