Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, daxx said:

I'm going with 1-3 with some glaze for our area. Maybe 2-4 out close to bubblerville.

12z NAMs say you may well be right.  Much less taint as well, but still likely w/ part 2

[daxx]

26 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

12z NAMs say you may well be right.  Much less taint as well, but still likely w/ part 2

Yea I can't see why we can't put down at least an inch from this. If precip comes in a little juicier then we tack on.  For the second part I believe it's an ice to rain deal. I believe the ice will just be on trees raised surfaces, unless temperatures are colder than modeled.  

[Itstrainingtime]

32 minutes ago, daxx said:

Yea I can't see why we can't put down at least an inch from this. If precip comes in a little juicier then we tack on.  For the second part I believe it's an ice to rain deal. I believe the ice will just be on trees raised surfaces, unless temperatures are colder than modeled.  

1" to perhaps 2" stands from yesterday as my final call. I lean towards the 1".

[daxx]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1" to perhaps 2" stands from yesterday as my final call. I lean towards the 1".

I would be happy with 2.6 to get my seasonal to 6 inches.  That might be asking for too much. If we get nothing no biggie...plenty of time to go.

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP:

[canderson]

Harrisburg prediction: .75” snow then just rain. Maybe it’ll lay on something other than cars this time.

[MAG5035]

The two pronged nature of this system is going to provide two different areas of accumulating snow. What the south central and Sus Valley see's snow-wise will heavily depend on the front running wave of precipitation, and how much into PA it reaches (as well as rates/intensity). The models have been focusing that initial wave on the southern portions of the subforum (generally below I-80) and not so much in the northern tier. The main precip associated with the surface low passage will then involve the entire region, though warm advection aloft will introduce the mixing issues to at least the southern tier. The uncertainty that remains is where the second snow swath ends up being. Models pretty firm now on the surface low coming close but passing just south of PA... so while lack of a high to the north continues to be a sticking point for me, cold air at 925mb-surface should hold fairly well for most of the event (esp north of the turnpike). 0z and 6z Euro seems to be furthest south with the second swath of snow, getting places like IPT their 2-3" of snow as that particular models hangs the 850 0ºC line right through the middle of the state. GFS seems the most "black and white" (snow and rain) and fairly warm with not a lot of ice while the NAM has more widespread icing in central PA after the initial snow. Personally I think the NAM's P-type take seems the most plausible given the scenario. This should be an overall winter weather advisory type event on both the snow and ice aspect.

I think the south central counties (south of I-80, west of I-81)  have the best chance of getting the 2-3" snowfall that appears to be the mostly likely decent snowfall outcome of this. I'm worried that the front running wave fizzles some as it gets into the LSV, and folks there end up with lighter rates and have trouble getting an inch or so. And then, I'm also concerned about the advection aloft getting further north and mixing most of the northern tier when they finally see the precip from the main wave.. essentially providing the same scenario as the LSV with having trouble getting say, an inch out of this. We could also end up colder aloft as well too in the end, which could possibly make for a higher end advisory event if anyone saw mostly snow from both waves, but lack of high pressure to the north is a limiting factor for that potential outcome. 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, daxx said:

I'm going with 1-3 with some glaze for our area. Maybe 2-4 out close to bubblerville.

I think that’s a good call. It all depends on well that front running precip stays together as it crosses the state.

I also noticed a lot of models showing the @Bubbler86 jackpot! 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The two pronged nature of this system is going to provide two different areas of accumulating snow. What the south central and Sus Valley see's snow-wise will heavily depend on the front running wave of precipitation, and how much into PA it reaches (as well as rates/intensity). The models have been focusing that initial wave on the southern portions of the subforum (generally below I-80) and not so much in the northern tier. The main precip associated with the surface low passage will then involve the entire region, though warm advection aloft will introduce the mixing issues to at least the southern tier. The uncertainty that remains is where the second snow swath ends up being. Models pretty firm now on the surface low coming close but passing just south of PA... so while lack of a high to the north continues to be a sticking point for me, cold air at 925mb-surface should hold fairly well for most of the event (esp north of the turnpike). 0z and 6z Euro seems to be furthest south with the second swath of snow, getting places like IPT their 2-3" of snow as that particular models hangs the 850 0ºC line right through the middle of the state. GFS seems the most "black and white" (snow and rain) and fairly warm with not a lot of ice while the NAM has more widespread icing in central PA after the initial snow. Personally I think the NAM's P-type take seems the most plausible given the scenario. This should be an overall winter weather advisory type event on both the snow and ice aspect.

I think the south central counties (south of I-80, west of I-81)  have the best chance of getting the 2-3" snowfall that appears to be the mostly likely decent snowfall outcome of this. I'm worried that the front running wave fizzles some as it gets into the LSV, and folks there end up with lighter rates and have trouble getting an inch or so. And then, I'm also concerned about the advection aloft getting further north and mixing most of the northern tier when they finally see the precip from the main wave.. essentially providing the same scenario as the LSV with having trouble getting say, an inch out of this. We could also end up colder aloft as well too in the end, which could possibly make for a higher end advisory event if anyone saw mostly snow from both waves, but lack of high pressure to the north is a limiting factor for that potential outcome. 

 

 

Great post @MAG5035

Any thoughts on the coastal potential for next weekend?

[daxx]

Euro says Maytowns one inch call is looking better and better for us down here.  I'm going down with ship.  I'm still sticking with 1 to 3.  Higher end of my call as you head further west. 

[Anduril]

Winter Weather Advisory up

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
152 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

PAZ033>036-063>066-160700-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0031.191216T0700Z-191216T2100Z/
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster
152 PM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of a light glaze.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 4 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania
Turnpike Commission remind motorists to adjust speeds based on
driving conditions as winter weather impacts Pennsylvania
roadways.

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel,
roadway and traffic conditions.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are a variety of 12z snow maps that support CTP’s Advisory for 1-3 from around the turnpike on south.

I even dusted off & included the old SREF just for fun!

 

[pawatch]

Off topic but enjoying the Chiefs/Bronocs game with all that snow. On CBS.

 

Blizz kind of sparse with the models but it all adds up.

[Itstrainingtime]

Lot of pessimism in the sub to our south about the pattern for the remainder of the month...fits the thoughts of the "guy from Millersville" who is going with a warming trend beginning Christmas week. 

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lot of pessimism in the sub to our south about the pattern for the remainder of the month...fits the thoughts of the "guy from Millersville" who is going with a warming trend beginning Christmas week. 

I think a lot will depend on the MJO. The models are split as to which phase it goes into when it emerges from the COD. 

As for this moment, I’m going to try to enjoy the little bit of snow tomorrow & then see where things go from there.

[daxx]

25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think a lot will depend on the MJO. The models are split as to which phase it goes into when it emerges from the COD. 

As for this moment, I’m going to try to enjoy the little bit of snow tomorrow & then see where things go from there.

It would be nice to come out in phase 7 and go into phase 8 by early January. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, daxx said:

It would be nice to come out in phase 7 and go into phase 8 by early January. 

Yep, a pattern reload sometime between Christmas and New Year's would be ideal. EPS is hinting at it...will it be right? 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, daxx said:

It would be nice to come out in phase 7 and go into phase 8 by early January. 

Enough going on in the NAO space that we can see Episodes of it as the season progresses. Been a decent start so far and I’d think most sensible folk dont expect wall to wall winter. 

[Flatheadsickness]

winter looks to be setting up just fine no need to worry yet. Dont want thee warm air not to far south. Cad set up every week just a few weeks back . 

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

32/21.  I feel good about this one.   Meso discussion issued for our Midwest friends earlier.    
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/m/#md_page

[Voyager]

Surprised the advisories kind of wrap around Schuylkill County. Lehigh, Carbon, and even Luzerne have 'em, but we don't. Wonder if at some point overnight, one gets issued.

[Itstrainingtime]

For amusement only: (this is somewhat aggressive for me) 

@MAG5035 3.3"

@Cashtown_Coop 2.5"

@CarlislePaWx 1.7"

@daxx 1.3"

@Blizzard of 93 @sauss06 1" (actually slightly less, but you'll be able to slant stick your way to 1" :)) 

@pasnownut .75"

@Superstorm .6"

@Voyager .5"

@canderson No trees down on Front Street

@Wmsptwx f*ck the Patriots 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

37 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

32/21.  I feel good about this one.   Meso discussion issued for our Midwest friends earlier.    
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/m/#md_page

I have been watching the radar to our west & it seems like the precip has gained latitude while moving steadily to the east. 

Here is CTP’s latest snow map. Also, I noticed that our friend @Anduril did not like the color scheme on CTP’s map on their Twitter page. I had a good Lol on his comment.

[daxx]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For amusement only: (this is somewhat aggressive for me) 

@MAG5035 3.3"

@Cashtown_Coop 2.5"

@CarlislePaWx 1.7"

@daxx 1.3"

@Blizzard of 93 @sauss06 1" (actually slightly less, but you'll be able to slant stick your way to 1" :)) 

@pasnownut .75"

@Superstorm .6"

@Voyager .5"

@canderson No trees down on Front Street

@Wmsptwx f*ck the Patriots 

 

I'll take it! You didn't include yourself. 

[Itstrainingtime]

CTP's most up to date map:

[Blizzard of 93]

52 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

For amusement only: (this is somewhat aggressive for me) 

@MAG5035 3.3"

@Cashtown_Coop 2.5"

@CarlislePaWx 1.7"

@daxx 1.3"

@Blizzard of 93 @sauss06 1" (actually slightly less, but you'll be able to slant stick your way to 1" :)) 

@pasnownut .75"

@Superstorm .6"

@Voyager .5"

@canderson No trees down on Front Street

@Wmsptwx f*ck the Patriots 

 

This is awesome, especially the Canderson & Williamsport comments !

Also, Sauss & I would never even consider slant sticking our measurements ...

[sauss06]

42 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is awesome, especially the Canderson & Williamsport comments !

Also, Sauss & I would never even consider slant sticking our measurements ...

Never, both eyes closed but never a slant

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

Never, both eyes closed but never a slant

After a few cold ones that stick might be slanted even if it appears upright to you.  

[paweather5]

Run after run the Rgem has shown this. 

[canderson]

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

After a few cold ones that stick might be slanted even if it appears upright to you.  

That’s what she said