Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Winter Storm Watches & Advisories are flying all over our region for tomorrow night through Monday. I think that we will see the advisories added for at least 1 more layer of counties to the south & even possibly for all of us north of the MD line. Many models have shown front end frozen precip for the MD line & north for several days. The models even have had this area in play for a little snow from the Upper level low & coastal low that develops on Monday. The short range High Res models, along with the Euro should lock in on this over the next 24 hours. The 18z NAMs have most of the LSV starting as an icy mix tomorrow night. Maybe CTP wants to see one or 2 more model cycles before they add the LSV to the Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Worst part of all this, for me, is that we have a high end client going to an NFL game and I got assigned the run. There's no opportunity for me to say it's "too icy" or the roads are "too bad" and "I'm not running". We'll lose the customer, and I'll get fired. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Add the latest RGEM to the LSV being included in the frozen frozen precip early Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 hour ago, Voyager said: Worst part of all this, for me, is that we have a high end client going to an NFL game and I got assigned the run. There's no opportunity for me to say it's "too icy" or the roads are "too bad" and "I'm not running". We'll lose the customer, and I'll get fired. I personally do not think Sunday is going to be that bad for for most areas south of i80. Monday is still up for grabs. Would not surprise me to see some LSV locales get 2-3" of snow Monday. Euro is all rain for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I personally do not think Sunday is going to be that bad for for most areas south of i80. Monday is still up for grabs. Would not surprised me to see some LSV locales get 2-3" of snow. Euro is all rain for Sunday. I'm worried because my itinerary is to pick up in Wilkes-Barre, Pittston, and Dickson City, and then go right through the heart of the Poconos on I-380 to I-80 to the Water Gap and into New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'm worried because my itinerary is to pick up in Wilkes-Barre, Pittston, and Dickson City, and then go right through the heart of the Poconos on I-380 to I-80 to the Water Gap and into New Jersey. If you leave after sunrise it might be ok. I’m not sold on too much ice overnight Saturday- I think Sunday late into Monday snow is a much more challenging travel issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 26 minutes ago, canderson said: If you leave after sunrise it might be ok. I’m not sold on too much ice overnight Saturday- I think Sunday late into Monday snow is a much more challenging travel issue. I really hope your right. Monday I go to NYC, but I've got a bit more wiggle room on that one if it's bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: I really hope your right. Monday I go to NYC, but I've got a bit more wiggle room on that one if it's bad. Some people do not agree with this but the weather really has been fairly warm and the roads are generally not going to be overly cold. Can snow lay on them? Sure....will freezing rain at temps of 30-32 be an issue during day light? Not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Some people do not agree with this but the weather really has been fairly warm and the roads are generally not going to be overly cold. Can snow lay on them? Sure....will freezing rain at temps of 30-32 be an issue during day light? Not so sure. The LSV is notorious for holding on to low level cold air. Please see the short range & meso models. Ice will be a problem Sunday am in the LSV & all of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 26 minutes ago, Voyager said: I really hope your right. Monday I go to NYC, but I've got a bit more wiggle room on that one if it's bad. Going to be a mess. Safe travels! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The LSV is notorious for holding on to low level cold air. Please see the short range & meso models. Ice will be a problem Sunday am in the LSV & all of CTP. I don't think definitive statements can be made in this situation. I can give you a boatload of storms where Harrisburg N&W was locked in ice while I'm 36 and rain. Could it be a mess here? Absolutely. But I wouldn't be shocked if it's mostly wet after sunrise Sunday here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Some people do not agree with this but the weather really has been fairly warm and the roads are generally not going to be overly cold. Can snow lay on them? Sure....will freezing rain at temps of 30-32 be an issue during day light? Not so sure. Another factor is rates...seems like the rain might be moderately heavy for a while Sunday. If that's the case at 32 degrees freezing rain won't be an issue on roadways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, pawatch said: Going to be a mess. Safe travels! Thanks! That's actually a pretty good graphic. Much better than their Rubik's Cube one...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 As of right now northeast pa is in for a true winter storm. I wish I had off work. Down here looks blah. It could change but I'm not counting on It. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 52 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The LSV is notorious for holding on to low level cold air. Please see the short range & meso models. Ice will be a problem Sunday am in the LSV & all of CTP. I am not going to look through all the short range models in lieu of just looking at my favorite the Nam. At no point on Sunday are the surface temps nearly cold enough for freezing rain to be a factor on the roads in the LSV. They are a good 5 degrees too high especially with it being daytime and the above normal temps much of this week. With that being said Voyager commented that he would be going through areas further North East but even in those areas, at noon on Sunday, are foretasted by the Nam to be too high for major road freezing issues. Models could be wrong so if someone is forecasting that then so be it but in my opinion Monday late is better time for winter weather due to the retreating temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I am not going to look through all the short range models in lieu of just looking at my favorite the Nam. At no point on Sunday are the surface temps nearly cold enough for freezing rain to be a factor on the roads in the LSV. They are a good 5 degrees too high especially with it being daytime and the above normal temps much of this week. With that being said Voyager commented that he would be going through areas further North East but even in those areas, at noon on Sunday, are foretasted by the Nam to be too high for major road freezing issues. Models could be wrong so if someone is forecasting that then so be it but in my opinion Monday late is better time for winter weather due to the retreating temps. This map is for 21z...late afternoon on Sunday..., i am merely saying that Ice will be a problem at least in the morning hours. Sure, it will warm up in the afternoon. Why downplay the chance of ice ? Countless times over the years ice has held on for hours after originally forecast. Also, it only takes a small amount of ice to cause a massive problem on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Another factor is rates...seems like the rain might be moderately heavy for a while Sunday. If that's the case at 32 degrees freezing rain won't be an issue on roadways. Yes, in the afternoon, many of us will warm above freezing. In the early morning through midday, ice will probably cause problems on some roads even in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: This map is for 18z..., i am merely saying that Ice will be a problem at least in the early morning hours. Sure, it will warm up in the afternoon. Why downplay the chance of ice ? Countless times over the years ice has held on hours after originally forecast. Also, it only takes a small amount of ice to cause a massive problem on the roads. I guess for me it has to be under 30 at the surface for ice to a really accumulate on the street during the day especially if it is raining with any kind of intensity. But not trying to downplay it just do not think it is anything, especially for the LSV, that significantly slows down people or traffic. My opinion is less about models and more about time of year and temps starting out above 32 and relying on evap cooling for an ice event. I think the Monday evening rush hour has the potential to be worse especially the Eastern part of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Here are the latest NAMs for 18z (1pm) Sunday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The Winter Weather Advisory has now been added to include the LSV. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 PAZ036-056-057-059-063>066-302200- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0027.191201T0600Z-191201T1800Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 354 AM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow, sleet and freezing rain developing late tonight and changing to primarily freezing before daybreak. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Untreated roads and sidewalks could be icy Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Well, our snowfall total was already cut back. On the maps last night, Pottsville was listed at 4-6 inches, and now it's 2-3. I started to embrace the snowfall, hoping that PA would institute a commercial vehicle ban for Monday, but if they keep cutting back, it'll just be a slick nuisance variety mess, and I'll have to run. I really need to move away from this area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Good morning @MAG5035 Please let us know your thoughts on this complex storm for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Reporting from the tree stand haha I get poor cell reception down at the camp so I’m a bit limited this weekend with updates. For the wintry mix/ice portion of this storm I have my usual position on CAD staying anchored better than modelled, and really most models have been consistently icy all week to begin with. There will definitely be some impacts region wide with the worst of the ice potential in the ice storm warned counties. More sleet further east and northeast may prevent warning level ice accrual but the mix will likely make things slippery. The wildcard is the redeveloping coastal and upper level low swinging through. The biggest snow potential is in the Poconos (with the coastal) but the ULL passage could make for periods of snow getting towards Monday in C-PA. I thinking maybe 1-2” type potential with the ULL but any meso banding could spike snowfall in spots. Patchy snow could linger for awhile too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro has some light snow and flurries Wednesday morning. It is also close to something at the end of the week. Plenty of time for that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Curious if the LSV ends up with more sleet than freezing rain tomorrow am. CTP seems to be leaning that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lancaster Monday Snows on Nam... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 There seems to be a consensus at this time with the global ensembles today. The LSV looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch of snow range, with amounts increasing the further north & east that you go in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There seems to be a consensus at this time with the global ensembles today. The LSV looks to be in the 1 to 2 inch of snow range, with amounts increasing the further north & east that you go in PA. No surprise here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 CTP has a beta map about travel issues and say no one basically SE of 80 has any road issues the next 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, canderson said: CTP has a beta map about travel issues and say no one basically SE of 80 has any road issues the next 2 days I was in Adams county most of the day and they are not even pre-treating the roads which was surprising....just due to the WWA. With that said it is still near 40 throughout the LSV right now. Not a normal setup for icing in a few hours other than the cold front/flash freeze situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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