Itstrainingtime Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 You guys crack me up. My AC is still going strong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: You guys crack me up. My AC is still going strong... You might be our thread’s version of @Jebman ! That man loves cold & snow more than just about anyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: You sir are brave. We have had several nights the last 2 weeks that went into the 30’s & 40’s. The house is well insulated so holds temps well between seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 server hiccup, double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 5 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Happy snow tracking season everyone! This morning certainly was chilly & frosty! We need to watch the storm around the end of this week. The ensembles & Ops are showing CTP on the southern edge of a little snow by next weekend. As of now, the models show the better chance for snow for NY state & parts of New England. Either way, the cold shots appear to be lining up for the first half of November. Hopefully we can score some early snow just like last year! The 12z Euro today delivered on the snow threat for Thursday night into early Friday with a storm tracking to our southeast while cold high pressure is moving in to our north & west. I would take this solution & run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 On 11/2/2019 at 3:38 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: The 12z Euro today delivered on the snow threat for Thursday night into early Friday with a storm tracking to our southeast while cold high pressure is moving in to our north & west. I would take this solution & run ! Today's 12z run had a similar look with the wave and pressing cold high running a slug of moderate precip across the state albeit a bit warmer thermally... relegating most of the potential accumulating snows to the Laurel's and the northern tier generally above I-80. Doesn't appear that the low levels get cool in time in the south central and Sus Valley, with 925mb-surface temps lagging. It certainly could indicate an overall rain to snow type scenario for most though, just not notable accums once towards the Sus Valley . Either way, a major shot of cold coming behind the potential system. Canadian and ICON have this system and wave of precip positioned similarly while the GFS is way SE keeping PA completely dry. That's just the take on the models as they look currently but this system is certainly worth keeping an eye on (just in time for switching back to standard time). Timing of the system vs press of the cold air will be important. Given how early it is things will have to align just right, but this is an impressive cold airmass for early November on the playing field so something to the tune of our early event last November is quite possible. I'd personally rather see this type of cold pattern come to fruition in the latter half of November but it's good to see some potential action right off the get go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 48 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Today's 12z run had a similar look with the wave and pressing cold high running a slug of moderate precip across the state albeit a bit warmer thermally... relegating most of the potential accumulating snows to the Laurel's and the northern tier generally above I-80. Doesn't appear that the low levels get cool in time in the south central and Sus Valley, with 925mb-surface temps lagging. It certainly could indicate an overall rain to snow type scenario for most though, just not notable accums once towards the Sus Valley . Either way, a major shot of cold coming behind the potential system. Canadian and ICON have this system and wave of precip positioned similarly while the GFS is way SE keeping PA completely dry. That's just the take on the models as they look currently but this system is certainly worth keeping an eye on (just in time for switching back to standard time). Timing of the system vs press of the cold air will be important. Given how early it is things will have to align just right, but this is an impressive cold airmass for early November on the playing field so something to the tune of our early event last November is quite possible. I'd personally rather see this type of cold pattern come to fruition in the latter half of November but it's good to see some potential action right off the get go. This thread should be very busy this week! At the very least, many folks in CTP have a decent chance to see their first snowflakes flying this season. If the cold air press times up well with the precip, many of us could be in business for our first accumulation of snow very early in the season yet again. This pattern could also provide more wintry weather again next week along with some impressive cold air for this time of year. It’s time to get our winter weather game face on everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 The 00z Euro still shows the weekend snow, and the 06z GFS shows it (but later, on Monday) as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Is it true the Euro maps are now free on Pivotal Weather? WXRISK, Dave, had a post out there saying it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 4, 2019 Author Share Posted November 4, 2019 21 minutes ago, paweather said: Is it true the Euro maps are now free on Pivotal Weather? WXRISK, Dave, had a post out there saying it was. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 On 10/30/2019 at 9:53 AM, canderson said: Good, @Atomixwx would be pissed if he had to wear a poncho walking door-to-door asking for tricks. The wind made it real ****ing hard to post that wife of yours on her normal corner, and so were relegated to dog walking her about. How's her knees, btw? I was up til four AM splashing gauze bandages and rubbing alcohol on those moneymakers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 Oh. And we're off and running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted November 4, 2019 Share Posted November 4, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: yep That's awesome went on the website and got the high resolution maps! Great for winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 The prospect of some potential snow in at least some of the region late in the week is certainly earlier than we generally see but it does occur in the early half of November from time to time. Let's briefly discuss what the models currently have progged next week in the form of a major shot of cold air. That is a whole other thing if that were to come to fruition. Euro and GFS send in sub 504 thicknesses which is quite anomalous for the dead of winter much less the Nov 13-15ish timeframe. We're talking highs not out of the 20s and single digits/ teens low temps depending on the region of PA and if there happens to be any snow on the ground anywhere. Simply put, the D6-10 timeframe looks straight up wintry. If it indeed ends up being that cold or even close to that, one would hope we can score some kind of event out of it. Sans any kind of synoptic event, NW PA and the Laurel's would stand to benefit from a potentially favorable trajectory and ∆T's that figure to light up the lakes like a Christmas tree with a few days of -10 to -15ºC 850 air overhead. Edit to add, the Great Lakes temp map shows Lake Erie (by far the warmest lake by virtue of it also being the shallowest) largely in the upper 50s to near 60ºF or so as of Sunday Nov 3. I haven't looked over in the upstate NY thread much yet, but I'm sure the LES gurus are quite excited about the potential of that. So that's like a 20-30ºC ∆T between lake surface and 850mb (5k feet). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 21 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: The prospect of some potential snow in at least some of the region late in the week is certainly earlier than we generally see but it does occur in the early half of November from time to time. Let's briefly discuss what the models currently have progged next week in the form of a major shot of cold air. That is a whole other thing if that were to come to fruition. Euro and GFS send in sub 504 thicknesses which is quite anomalous for the dead of winter much less the Nov 13-15ish timeframe. We're talking highs not out of the 20s and single digits/ teens low temps depending on the region of PA and if there happens to be any snow on the ground anywhere. Simply put, the D6-10 timeframe looks straight up wintry. If it indeed ends up being that cold or even close to that, one would hope we can score some kind of event out of it. Sans any kind of synoptic event, NW PA and the Laurel's would stand to benefit from a potentially favorable trajectory and ∆T's that figure to light up the lakes like a Christmas tree with a few days of -10 to -15ºC 850 air overhead. Edit to add, the Great Lakes temp map shows Lake Erie (by far the warmest lake by virtue of it also being the shallowest) largely in the upper 50s to near 60ºF or so as of Sunday Nov 3. I haven't looked over in the upstate NY thread much yet, but I'm sure the LES gurus are quite excited about the potential of that. So that's like a 20-30ºC ∆T between lake surface and 850mb (5k feet). It sure would be great to score some early season snow again this year. As you said, there should be some extraordinary cold air around by this coming weekend. There appears to be a few chances at snow, so hopefully we all cash in & get on the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 NWS says a little snow for northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Setup looks pretty good for a couple inches in the far northern tier, indeed. I bet we see flakes down here for a bit - mixed with rain probably but any flake before Thanksgiving is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted November 5, 2019 Author Share Posted November 5, 2019 11 minutes ago, pawatch said: NWS says a little snow for northern tier. Gonna be cold in the treestand..... Brrrrr I'll take it but someone may need to chisel me out of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 This was one of the more milder November election morning walks I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 On 11/2/2019 at 12:54 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: You might be our thread’s version of @Jebman ! That man loves cold & snow more than just about anyone! The Mid Atlantic isnt going to be the only region this winter with frigid cold and near record, to outright record amounts of wind driven snow! You guys are gonna get obliterated as well! Some of you in Upstate are going to get BURIED ALIVE by LES! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 This guy's too excited about the ****ing weather. Dial it down a bit, huh? I need you at like a three. You can currently be heard from the Moon. Also, your name makes me think of the Comrade Jeb Bush meme. Please clap. Please clap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 59 minutes ago, Jebman said: The Mid Atlantic isnt going to be the only region this winter with frigid cold and near record, to outright record amounts of wind driven snow! You guys are gonna get obliterated as well! Some of you in Upstate are going to get BURIED ALIVE by LES! How are the breakfast tacos treating you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Another spectacular fall day! Enjoying the sunny, cool weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Some guy at work walks in my office at 6am and said, "heard we're gettin a bunch of snow for Thursday/Friday, should we put the plow on?" i spit coffee all over my desk laughing. He just turned and walked out of my office. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 12z GFS is another pretty solid run for C-PA snow next week. Classic anafront situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 And what's more impressive is the cold that follows it. State College drops into the low single digits for at least three consecutive mornings next week on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: And what's more impressive is the cold that follows it. State College drops into the low single digits for at least three consecutive mornings next week on the GFS. Takes an anomalous pattern for the Piedmont to have an opportunity for snow this time of year, and the models are certainly suggesting just that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said: And what's more impressive is the cold that follows it. State College drops into the low single digits for at least three consecutive mornings next week on the GFS. Wow that’s impressive this early. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 While I'm all-in on any Snowvember, I'm not all-in on Novembuary with those lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 7, 2019 Share Posted November 7, 2019 5 hours ago, Atomixwx said: While I'm all-in on any Snowvember, I'm not all-in on Novembuary with those lows. Me neither. Way too cold way too early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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