wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Kuchera does better taking out the sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Storm Vista does include sleet Hey that even gives far WNY a few inches...not bad I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Not much spread in the GLs anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Spread opens up along the coast as some members stall it while others continue NE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro keeps slowly tic tic tic west with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 This is a classic distribution NE Bomb, like Syrmax said, but it feels like it’s been a while! Still see things shifting SE a touch in the end (per usual). At this point, Syracuse is golden for warning amounts. 9z SREF ticked down to 10”. I’m not biting on Roc for this one. We gonna throw numbers out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Buffalo 3 Rochester 8 Syr 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 BUF 1” ROC 1” SYR 8” Fulton 8” Albany 13” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 These do usually count in sleet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 We all increased about 1"-1.5" on the sref.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Probalistics (how do I post NWS Poducts without SS?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: We all increased about 1"-1.5" on the sref.. SREF 3z in Syracuse was 12 it went to 10 at 9z. Minor stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: These do usually count in sleet.. That’s cool. I’ve never seen SREF Mean depicted as a map, only graphically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Clown maps differ somewhat...3z had 13.6" for Syracuse, so not much difference according to the wb maps.. Fulton went from 10.3"-11.4" Rochester 8.8"-10.3" But yes pretty much model noise lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Probalistics (how do I post NWS Poducts without SS?) Hold the image down and it should pop up with "download images" Once it's downloaded, upload it here like normal, should be in your files or gallery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: These do usually count in sleet.. SREFS Looks like the ICON with that tongue of precip into northern NY also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The primary impacts of a winter storm will be felt during the day Sunday when an area of mixed precipitation moves from southwest to northeast across the region. A warm layer of about +4C will quickly change precipitation to freezing rain across the Southern Tier since surface temperatures will still be in the upper 20s Sunday morning. As stacked low pressure centered near southern Lake Michigan transitions to a coastal low, the LLJ ahead of this system will weaken as it moves across our region. This will weaken the push of warm air aloft with the Buffalo to Rochester area likely to be a transition zone with sleet and freezing rain before thermal profiles support all (or mostly) snow northeast of Rochester. The precipitation will only last 3-6 hours, with the greatest impact on the Buffalo/Rochester metro areas Sunday morning through early afternoon. Snow will last through the afternoon hours east of Lake Ontario. 00Z model guidance is in good agreement for Sunday, with only minor differences in timing and thermal profiles. Latest consensus does support slowing the timing slightly. Despite consensus QPF of around a half inch across the Niagara Frontier, much of this will fall as sleet. This is why the ice forecast is not higher even though surface temperatures should remain below freezing for most of the day. Also, expect minimal along the Lake Erie shoreline due to downsloping and warmer temperatures off the Chautauqua Ridge. The upper level low will track southeastward across West Virginia Sunday night, while the surface low `jumps` to the Jersey coast. Lacking a clear focus precipitation will taper off during the first half of Sunday night. Even though 850mb temperatures will only be around -1C, thermal profiles are below freezing with deep moisture so expect any precipitation to be mainly snow. There is lower confidence in late Sunday night into Monday since model agreement deteriorates. Our region will be on the northwestern fringe of a developing coastal low, with some models effectively transporting Atlantic moisture westward into our region while others keep the bulk of this just to our east. Either way, snow will re- develop across most of the area, but amounts will depend on the evolution of the coastal low and associated mid level jet. Snow accumulation should be light across far Western New York, an inch or less. However, east of Rochester several inches of snow are possible. Based on this uncertainty, will maintain the Winter Storm Watch with forecast amounts right at critical thresholds. Also kept advisory headlines, but did break out Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties since precipitation will start later here and will be primarily snow. It`s also possible this advisory may need to be extended depending on the Monday portion of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3km nam gives rochester half inch of sleet and 9 inches of snow. Qpf of 1.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lol is it trying to downslope Redfield It's not just you matt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thanks Wolfie. You know I struggle with the tech 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Icon has been quite consistent with the initial snow on Sunday.. Last 8 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Icon must of gotten an upgrade (maybe they rebooted it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 What a crush job for Oswego county lol Unfortunately it's an outlier here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lol valid 12z Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Arw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wow, 12Z runs are looking fantastic for Wayne County. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Maybe more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I cant believe how many ppl are concerned with these horrific precip output maps. I'd bet big money too prove them complete garbage, especially the horrible Kuchera method. Tonight's 00z I will save every precip output map from every known model out there, even the French one and Japanese too and we'll see which is closest to the actual event!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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