CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm still skeptical but we'll see as we're once again on the Southern fringe of the heavier precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 This is a 2 prong system.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Why is everyone jumping on the ICON? The Euro HI RES is 4-6" at KSYR so IDK but alls I see are precip maps, lol, which are horrific except the ICON, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Eps has a mean of 12inches in Syracuse, out of 50 members, just saying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 its on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: That event was nothing like this one, not in the least. It was an open wave, pretty much a miller B that bombed out once it reformed! no comparison I am sorry. you are 100 percent right. after looking at the setup carefully it is vastly different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I guess u missed the 12z gfs too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Why is everyone jumping on the ICON? The Euro HI RES is 4-6" at KSYR so IDK but alls I see are precip maps, lol, which are horrific except the ICON, lol! because its consistency run to run has been stellar for this storm. regardless of outcome. does anyone know when 18z euro comes out? that's the only one I cannot find online. anyone have a good source for it? thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 yeah, it was with the last one as well and every model busted except the HRRR which was discounted and thats exactly what happened, lol! I want it to snow just as bad, if not worse but IDL this set-up at all! ENY is a lock for double digits but not here, no way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 threading the needle type deal haha... 18z gfs shifted northwest again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 It's usually only paid.. On weather models.com it starts around 6pm..I'm sure I'll see it floating around somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: threading the needle type deal haha... 18z gfs shifted northwest again Lock it in.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 23 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: That event was nothing like this one, not in the least. It was an open wave, pretty much a miller B that bombed out once it reformed! . . no comparison Agree. I lived just north of Albany then, remember it well. Was a Miller B that we were all crapping our pants wouldnt deliver the goods right up till almost game time. But it did, 24" IMBY IIRC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: It's usually only paid.. On weather models.com it starts around 6pm..I'm sure I'll see it floating around somewhere Thank you wolfie. I appreciate it. Have a great evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Rgem is basically 8"-12"+ for Oswego county.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Rgem is basically 8"-12"+ for Oswego county and it's still remains one of the farthest south.. It’s in a great spot between the primary and the redeveloping coastal energy IMO. Hence that precip spit back in that L shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 That stuff just south of me over freak and company is 12"-16".. Rgem did shift slightly north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The RGEM with the last event was horrific, to say the least! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Wolfie what's eps mean for buffalo and rochester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'm as excited as everyone else but with that last bust, it was bad, real bad, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I'll start buying specific amounts once we get closer to the event. It's still 60+ hrs out. But at least there's decent consensus CNY should get at least a moderate snowstorm. ENY looks solid for a big hit. I'm supposed to be driving to Albany for work conference Monday morning. Looks like I'll be calling in for that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Been watching this event from afar.. Just because I love lake effect lol A Pacific-based shortwave trough will track across the Central and Eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds will become southwest ahead of an approaching cold front and cold air advection with 850mb temperatures falling to around -6C will filter across Lake Erie and Lake Ontario by Wednesday morning. This will likely initiate a lake response beginning northeast-east of the Lakes. Lake temperatures are currently in the mid 40s which offers marginal lake instability during this time. Daytime highs are expected in the mid to upper 30s so any snowfall accumulation during the day will be limited. The cold front will move through the region from west to east by Wednesday night and west winds will drag colder air into the region. The mid-level trough will be moving into New England and moisture will be diminishing quickly across the region. There will likely be a short window of upstream moisture and lake induced instability to get accumulating snow in some places. At this time, lake effect snow showers will likely be confined to the higher elevations east of the Lakes into Thursday. Warm air advection and high pressure tracking to the south will end snow showers Thursday night into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Wolfie what's eps mean for buffalo and rochester I posted 12z couple pages back, 18z not out yet.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Low end Expected High end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 GFS ens are an eye opener as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Monroe wayne county look like they are on edge of significant snow or just nuisance type snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 They love CNY.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Seen a map floating around that showed a mean of 18-21 near Syracuse haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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