TugHillMatt Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Boy, 18Z runs look even worse. What a boring start of winter in the Finger Lakes/Syracuse area. I should have moved to the UP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Wait till the day of the event and check the latest run of the HRRR and go with it, lol, cause it beat the crap out of every other guidance out there and I said it was out to lunch. The one who jinxed us was, Of course, Dave, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Boy, 18Z runs look even worse. What a boring start of winter in the Finger Lakes/Syracuse area. I should have moved to the UP!Matt, its Wednesday brutha and things are gonna change 4 more times before a consensus starts to begin and guidance starts to converge and I'd say sometime on Saturday we'll see this occur Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Wait till the day of the event and check the latest run of the HRRR and go with it, lol, cause it beat the crap out of every other guidance out there and I said it was out to lunch. The one who jinxed us was, Of course, Dave, lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Hahaha! But I’m not the jinx. TugHillMatt is definitely the jinx. You don’t want him moving anywhere near you lol! Just kidding Matt! You’ll get yours. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Bro, you thought it was bad up on the Tug last yr where you were, lol, wait till this yr when every West Flow event pounds your old location, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Lol! I didn't think the location was bad. The pattern was. Dave is right...if you love snow, you don't want me moving to your hood! Haha 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Little breezy this evening.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 36 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Little breezy this evening... . No real wind in CNY, Syracuse area. A touch breezy but that's it. WNY can have their wind events.... Looks like it'll be another week or more before anything noteworthy shows up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Euro with a decent snowfall for CNY points Eastward.. Most of this is from the primary as the coastal misses just east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Ggem right now is the coldest and farthest south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Nice little burst of winter at the moment, nothing sticking of course.. Kbuf A mature cyclone over the Upper Midwest Saturday night will track east while high pressure over our region will begrudgingly give way to this system. Conditions will slowly deteriorate as the warm front pushes slowly into Western NY overnight. The GFS/ECMWF have for the past couple of days been in generally agreement with this feature. However, there still remains some forecast challenges with how fast the push of warm air aloft moves in across the region. The GFS is rather fast and much warmer aloft, which would quickly transition P- type over from snow to freezing rain or plain rain. On the other hand, the ECMWF sounding profiles are much colder with a slower transition from southwest to Northeast across Western NY into the Finger Lakes. The North Country may not even see a transition if the colder solution were to come to fruition. For now, have gone with a blend of the two solutions at this point with most locals seeing a transition of P-type. Again, the lone exception will be across our far northern counties of Oswego, Jefferson, and Lewis counties where it may stay all snow. While this won`t be a significant event, any amount of mixed precipitation will likely make for tricky travel keeping in mind that it will be a busy travel weekend. Sunday, the weakening low will slowly track east reaching northern Ohio by Sunday night. While this occurs, a secondary low will develop off the Delmarva coast and track northeast along the coast nearing Long Island Sunday night. On the backside, once again colder air will wrap back in along with some additional moisture backing across our far eastern counties. While it doesn`t appear at this point too add a significant amount of precipitation, there may be some minor accumulations depending on area surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Euro ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Big difference with thermal profiles between the gfs and euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Could see this being on the money. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12Z NAM appears to show a similar snowfall location as the Euro Ens...Looks like models are centering in on the Catskills as the best snowfall area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Don’t bite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Lol I won't 6z was posted above and cut totals in half.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Nam is colder than the gfs with the primary, that's for sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12z Gfs struggles day 5 huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gfs is not really even better than the Canadian, at least in the medium range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 All posted on another board, since I'm to lazy to get em myself lol https://wxdisco.com/forums/topic/1461-december-1-3rd-2019-winter-storm/page/21/?tab=comments#comment-94161 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Time to enjoy some wifey time, happy Thanksgiving guys!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is not really even better than the Canadian, at least in the medium range.. Haha haha! Empirical proof! Hehe! Just kidding Freak. im flying to Chicago on Monday so perhaps the entire forum will get slammed. no but seriously, this storms a disaster for WNY and any BUF forecast county. If anyone in those areas gets more than 4”, repost this and throw it in my face like a savage! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gfs trying.. Still much warmer with the primary compared to the euro/Nam/Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Don't sleep on the primary out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gotta love confluence to the north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Guess I'll be heading to Syracuse proper for a day/night lol From a couple inches to over a foot in about what 35 miles or so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Ukie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Another view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Don't sleep on the primary out west.. Lock this in please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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