tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Albany? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Lmao the entire state except for the Niagara Frontier of WNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I see now on pivitol. 13.2 at roc for storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Very similar to icon. Ducks and runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Must be from dying upper level low pulling moisture in from Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Little bit if lake influence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Rochester Syracuse crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 Finally figured out how to block someone on this forum, didn't realize this forum had that feature. GEFS GEPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 18 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Lmao the entire state except for the Niagara Frontier of WNY... Wait, is this a week away? The anticipation in this discussion made me think this wasn't on the periphery of model accuracy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's still long ways out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 All down hill from here BTW what a beautiful day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 2 minutes ago, WNash said: Wait, is this a week away? The anticipation in this discussion made me think this wasn't on the periphery of model accuracy. In fairness the overrunning Snow could start late Saturday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 This forum has been chasing straight fantasy storms for the past couple weeks, like much worse than usual. It was that early season snow storm that gave everyone the itch. Now we are chasing storms 384 hours out. It's a fools errand but mostly harmless if we keep our expectations in check. Storm number 2 (the 12/2) system has been holding serve and trending better as of late, so I'm starting to be intrigued. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 A good bit of ice on the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 That would be bad. Half inch of ice then 10 12 inches of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: That would be bad. Half inch of ice then 10 12 inches of wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 That's total through fridaythe 6th. all of it is sunday the first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 21 minutes ago, tim123 said: That would be bad. Half inch of ice then 10 12 inches of wet snow. Evacuate now!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: There is no blocking, that's why it's going SE with each run. I thought a typical Greenland block was active. I was looking at a sat loop and it looked that way to me. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 45 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This forum has been chasing straight fantasy storms for the past couple weeks, like much worse than usual. It was that early season snow storm that gave everyone the itch. Now we are chasing storms 384 hours out. It's a fools errand but mostly harmless if we keep our expectations in check. Storm number 2 (the 12/2) system has been holding serve and trending better as of late, so I'm starting to be intrigued. Well the cold offered hope and lent credence to the fantasy storms...we don't like to waste the cold. I like the dec. 2 event. Fade the GFS per usual, blend the Ukie and Euro, and look for gem or something else and that this range, upstate (somewhere) looks good right now. I think there is more wiggle with this possible event for upstate NY than other coastal areas. I'd put a pin near Syracuse. Full disclosure, i have a camp in old forge so I am a bit bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I thought a typical Greenland block was active. I was looking at a sat loop and it looked that way to me. A typical greenland block is active and good (Negative NAO). However, we do not have greenland blocking the next few weeks. There are signs of it reloading in mid december. Also signs of a -AO https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Including the city of Copper Harbor 420 AM EST Tue Nov 26 2019 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of 11 to 16 inches. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Fairly common up there. But kinda early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: A typical greenland block is active and good (Negative NAO). However, we do not have greenland blocking the next few weeks. There are signs of it reloading in mid december. Also signs of a -AO https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml While true, look at the date it turns positive, after this storm..We will have an -nao during this event which I think is what everyone is getting at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 It still looks as though it will become unsettled across the region during this period, as a broad progressive mid level ridge will give way to a large closed low. That said, it appears the precip shield associated with this weekend`s storm will arrive here a bit later, keeping the majority of Saturday dry. The exception will be the possibility of a few rain or wet snow showers potentially making it as far northeast as western NY and the Finger Lakes region toward the latter part of the day. Also appears it will remain a bit colder than previously forecast as the surface low passes just southwest of our forecast area, which could mean as the main slug of precip moves into the area for Saturday night and Sunday, that more could fall in the form of snow or a wintry mix. In fact areas east of Lake Ontario may remain all snow through the entire event, with a wintry mix still possible across western NY and the Finger Lakes. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be mainly in mid and upper 30s, however areas east of Lake Ontario may not make it above the freezing mark. Confidence for an even deeper, colder air mass to build across the region for Sunday night through Tuesday is fairly high. Quite the contrary when it comes to precip as models differ on the possible evolution and track of a coastal low. The latest ECMWF and GEM both have a coastal low forming south of Long Island Sunday night, then slowly tracking northeast along the New England coast. While the latest GFS forms a low off the Delmarva and eventually moves it northeast, but too far off the New England coast to be of any consequence to us. If the ECMWF/GEM solutions work out, could see snow continuing across western and northcentral NY through at least Monday, possibly lingering into Monday night. Low pressure will finally pull away from the area on Tuesday, although there may still be some leftover lighter snow showers still hanging around, especially downwind of the lakes. Otherwise as hinted at earlier, temperatures will remain below normal for this time of year. Cold enough in fact, that just about all precip during the Sunday night through Tuesday time frame will fall in the form of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gfs is the only model that doesn't wanna bring it up the coast lol Pretty much stalls off the coast of NJ.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 12z and 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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