wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Canadian on Halloween.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 I mean that is legit cold and as we saw Oct 2006 the extreme temp differences can create additional cooling aloft with high rates of QPF. Taking this map as is, thats a significiant Lake effect snow event at all elevations 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 The signal is there at end of canadian too, just a few days later. I would wager someone gets accumulating snow between Oct 30th and Nov 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It does have quite a bit of support with the ensembles that we will have the cold air, but as we know timing it up will be the key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Pretty impressive squall line firing up over the lake. Marine Weather Statement notes likely waterspouts in this this line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Do you remember what year we had the snow storm on Halloween? I can vividly remember trick or treating in West Seneca as a kid in heavy snow the one year had to be early 90s just can’t remember which year it was. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Following this system weak high pressure will build into the Ohio Valley and New England from Monday through Tuesday. The GFS is again faster with the next trough coming into the Great Lakes, and again appears too fast when compared to ECMWF/GEM solutions and ensemble means. Given this, kept the Monday through Tuesday period dry and turning gradually cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Just under an inch liquid.. Continues to pour.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 I’m down here no spouts yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 22, 2019 Share Posted October 22, 2019 Yeah no go on any spouts but got some nice shots! Did you happen to catch the sunset through the storm line? I’ll post a few more pics later.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 22, 2019 Author Share Posted October 22, 2019 2 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Do you remember what year we had the snow storm on Halloween? I can vividly remember trick or treating in West Seneca as a kid in heavy snow the one year had to be early 90s just can’t remember which year it was. . https://www.weather.gov/buf/BufHolidayHalloween.html 1993 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Nice sunset tonight behind the storm line.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Decent lake response already setting up. Anyone else notice that radar gif don’t seem to work on here anymore? Never had an issue until a few days ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 So the gfs still trying to give us some snow around Halloween, Ggem and euro say otherwise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I think the euro and the GEM get us to that same scenario but one or two days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: So the gfs still trying to give us some snow around Halloween, Ggem and euro say otherwise.. Yeah Euro has been consistent, GFS is all over. Trust the analytics. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah Euro has been consistent, GFS is all over. Trust the analytics. GFS is bipolar right now but the CPC does agree it's going to go below normal around that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 49 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: GFS is bipolar right now but the CPC does agree it's going to go below normal around that time frame. A week from today, still showing up. All the signals are there for a big early season LES storm. Rapidly strengthening low, extreme blocking, and a dump of cold air from a piece of the PV. Good moisture and well aligned flow. It's really early and the lake is really warm but it should be cold enough to not be elevation driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 That low goes straight north due to the greenland blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 I believe the wrinkle in the jet came from the typhoon which can cause anomalous cold really early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: A week from today, still showing up. All the signals are there for a big early season LES storm. Rapidly strengthening low, extreme blocking, and a dump of cold air from a piece of the PV. Good moisture and well aligned flow. It's really early and the lake is really warm but it should be cold enough to not be elevation driven. If it does happens it always lands up further north than expected this early in the season. I would love to be on a ridgetop in the Boston Hills for this one. Could be quite a pasting if the latest run is correct (I am skeptical because of the Euro and CMC not agreeing with it however the last several runs of the GFS have showed this scenario in varying degrees of intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I believe the wrinkle in the jet came from the typhoon which can cause anomalous cold really early. Just like 2014! Lol not saying anything close to that will happen but that event was also set off by a strong typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Maybe it's delayed a few days but no chance on the Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Cold air starts to filter in on the 1st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 I'll reiterate this from kbuf afd yesterday.. The GFS is again faster with the next trough coming into the Great Lakes, and again appears too fast when compared to ECMWF/GEM solutions and ensemble means. Given this, kept the Monday through Tuesday period dry and turning gradually cooler. And from this morning afd.. As a new longwave trough digs into the Inter-Mountain West Monday and Tuesday...a broad ridge will become established over the eastern half of the Conus. Expansive sfc high pressure beneath this ridge will become centered over the Great lakes region...and this will support fair dry weather across our region with temperatures likely averaging a few degrees above late October normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 GEFS are cold, EPS are cool. GEFS=snow EPS=cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 23, 2019 Author Share Posted October 23, 2019 Someone will see flakes fly next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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