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Upstate/Eastern New York


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17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

How do you differentiate lake effect vs enhanced? Buffalo receives quite a bit from enhanced, probably more from enhanced then from LES.

It's an almost subjective differentiation.  I posted something here yesterday, where i indicated that after having kept track of LES vs real snow for a number of years, my locale had about 30-40% pure LES every season and maybe 10-20% of our seasonal totals were "lake enhanced".  Its all a guesstimate because you could bin the "enhanced" snowfall in either category, or keep it separate.  And, having a job and a life, I don't sit around parsing every single snowflake's origin.  ;)  So, in the past I've pretty much  lumped the "enhanced" snowfall into the synoptic bin until the system evolves into clear LES (e.g. synoptic support pulls away).  Of the synoptic total i estimate that maybe 10-20% in any given year is lake enhanced.  It's pretty rough admittedly but as a general rule of thumb i don't think it's unreasonable, based on experience.  And that's for my locale...I can't speak for other areas other than i'd be surprised if any spot was getting something like 50 or 75% of its annual snowfall from "lake enhancement."  But I wouldn't rule it out if someone was actually keeping a close track.  

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Maybe the tug?

I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact)..

She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 ..

 

Same with Chatuaqua ridge, Boston, Colden, etc... Definitely more then 50% of their snowfall is from LES. 

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Maybe the tug?

I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact)..

She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 ..

 

I would agree with that...theres a pretty well known spotter, oddly also named Carol, that lives on the Chautauqua Ridge SW of buffalo and reports about 240" per year...i also doubt more than 120" are from synoptic. 

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I like to give credit where credit is due.   I had forgotten about this event,  here is my personal entry from this one.


"A secondary re-enforcing arctic front dropped through the lakes today.  This brought an initial bout of very heavy lake effect as the front pushed the Ontario band onto the South shore.  This was a typically short event but the morning commute snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour caused general rush hour havoc.  The lake went quiet for about 6 hours as winds re-aligned west and then NW.  Once they went NW, a large and powerful connection to Huron and GB setup an intense band through Wayne and Monroe counties that became somewhat stationary for the major portion of the night.  Rochester picked up 12.1 inches of snow from this.  I chased this event for about 6 hours and it was pretty awesome.  Very strong winds along the lake gusting 50-60 forced buffalo to issue blizzard warnings for Wayne county.  Monroe likely should have had the same warnings."

22 hours ago, tim123 said:

Over a foot on this one.

Screenshot_20191120-143916_Samsung Internet.jpg

 

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28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Swing and a miss on the European..

Pops a secondary all the way down in the Delmarva region and heads NE..

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus (1).png

That is a strong system. I would keep eyes on this one sub 990 low in that spot would certainly produce colder air and more precipitation on the west side, especially if the primary hangs on longer. This looks like a quicker and complete transfer on this run. The 06z not so much. Better trends so far IMO

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Weather the next few days is for the birds! That early storm really did set the bar to high to start the season. Wake me up when December starts!

Noticed we just passed the Nov 2000 storm anniversary. The original “The November Storm”. Pretty neat video from some guys running around downtown. Really this is some of the only raw video available from that storm. They have a few incorrect factoids but otherwise a great video.





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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Weather the next few days is for the birds! That early storm really did set the bar to high to start the season. Wake me up when December starts!

Noticed we just passed the Nov 2000 storm anniversary. The original “The November Storm”. Pretty neat video from some guys running around downtown. Really this is some of the only raw video available from that storm. They have a few incorrect factoids but otherwise a great video.

 

 

 


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I went to school at McKinley when this happened, me and some friends left at 1 and never made it home. Drove around until 1am and couldn’t find a rout to s buffalo. Must have pushed out 50 cars while never getting stuck in my 1990 4 door lumina with studded snows. What a night lol. 

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44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Teles going in right direction, will make a new post this weekend

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html

The 2 big drivers in my unprofessional opinion are the PNA trending towards positive by 1st week of December and the EPO trending moderately negative at the same time. If the 2 happen similarly it may allow the cold air to dump out west them move east and become established.

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Todays average High/Low is 45/32. Still need a pretty cold airmass to get any appreciable snow. By Dec 4th the average is 39/27. 

I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not.

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12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not.

I've lived in Amherst, and i have lived in Albany.

Where are you getting that 5 degree figure from?

They seemed pretty similar to me.

Where I live now, at 1650 feet in Otsego County is definitely colder than both those places.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, cny rider said:

I've lived in Amherst, and i have lived in Albany.

Where are you getting that 5 degree figure from?

They seemed pretty similar to me.

Where I live now, at 1650 feet in Otsego County is definitely colder than both those places.

 

 

If you use Albany as a starting point and head east and south the temps definitely get milder. I agree Albany and Amherst are similar but it doesnt take too long to find average warmer temps away from that area

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