PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 22 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If we just had a touch more cold, we'd see a few inches That looks great for my area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 17 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: How do you differentiate lake effect vs enhanced? Buffalo receives quite a bit from enhanced, probably more from enhanced then from LES. It's an almost subjective differentiation. I posted something here yesterday, where i indicated that after having kept track of LES vs real snow for a number of years, my locale had about 30-40% pure LES every season and maybe 10-20% of our seasonal totals were "lake enhanced". Its all a guesstimate because you could bin the "enhanced" snowfall in either category, or keep it separate. And, having a job and a life, I don't sit around parsing every single snowflake's origin. So, in the past I've pretty much lumped the "enhanced" snowfall into the synoptic bin until the system evolves into clear LES (e.g. synoptic support pulls away). Of the synoptic total i estimate that maybe 10-20% in any given year is lake enhanced. It's pretty rough admittedly but as a general rule of thumb i don't think it's unreasonable, based on experience. And that's for my locale...I can't speak for other areas other than i'd be surprised if any spot was getting something like 50 or 75% of its annual snowfall from "lake enhancement." But I wouldn't rule it out if someone was actually keeping a close track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Maybe the tug? I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact).. She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe the tug? I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact).. She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 .. Same with Chatuaqua ridge, Boston, Colden, etc... Definitely more then 50% of their snowfall is from LES. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Maybe the tug? I doubt Carol receives 150" of synoptic per year lol Which would be about 1/2 her annual snowfall..(288" to be exact).. She lives at 1500 feet asl not 4000 .. I would agree with that...theres a pretty well known spotter, oddly also named Carol, that lives on the Chautauqua Ridge SW of buffalo and reports about 240" per year...i also doubt more than 120" are from synoptic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I like to give credit where credit is due. I had forgotten about this event, here is my personal entry from this one. "A secondary re-enforcing arctic front dropped through the lakes today. This brought an initial bout of very heavy lake effect as the front pushed the Ontario band onto the South shore. This was a typically short event but the morning commute snowfall rates of 2-3 inches an hour caused general rush hour havoc. The lake went quiet for about 6 hours as winds re-aligned west and then NW. Once they went NW, a large and powerful connection to Huron and GB setup an intense band through Wayne and Monroe counties that became somewhat stationary for the major portion of the night. Rochester picked up 12.1 inches of snow from this. I chased this event for about 6 hours and it was pretty awesome. Very strong winds along the lake gusting 50-60 forced buffalo to issue blizzard warnings for Wayne county. Monroe likely should have had the same warnings." 22 hours ago, tim123 said: Over a foot on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Swing and a miss on the European.. Pops a secondary all the way down in the Delmarva region and heads NE.. That is a strong system. I would keep eyes on this one sub 990 low in that spot would certainly produce colder air and more precipitation on the west side, especially if the primary hangs on longer. This looks like a quicker and complete transfer on this run. The 06z not so much. Better trends so far IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Models have been trending east with that..Still 7 days out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I've been eyeing this one for several days now as a possible significant wind event. A few of these runs have been real doozies for WNY! 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Models have been trending east with that..Still 7 days out.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 If that HP dropped down sooner we could be in business.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Weather the next few days is for the birds! That early storm really did set the bar to high to start the season. Wake me up when December starts!Noticed we just passed the Nov 2000 storm anniversary. The original “The November Storm”. Pretty neat video from some guys running around downtown. Really this is some of the only raw video available from that storm. They have a few incorrect factoids but otherwise a great video.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: If that HP dropped down sooner we could be in business.. SW quadrant never has that much precip. Let’s hope on a BIG press and get this thing south so we can be in the appropriate quadrant (nw). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Weather the next few days is for the birds! That early storm really did set the bar to high to start the season. Wake me up when December starts! Noticed we just passed the Nov 2000 storm anniversary. The original “The November Storm”. Pretty neat video from some guys running around downtown. Really this is some of the only raw video available from that storm. They have a few incorrect factoids but otherwise a great video. . I went to school at McKinley when this happened, me and some friends left at 1 and never made it home. Drove around until 1am and couldn’t find a rout to s buffalo. Must have pushed out 50 cars while never getting stuck in my 1990 4 door lumina with studded snows. What a night lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 I didn't even have to look at the post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Teles going in right direction, will make a new post this weekend https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 AO is all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 44 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Teles going in right direction, will make a new post this weekend https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html The 2 big drivers in my unprofessional opinion are the PNA trending towards positive by 1st week of December and the EPO trending moderately negative at the same time. If the 2 happen similarly it may allow the cold air to dump out west them move east and become established. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Way out there but Dec 4-7th is best chance at first lake snow event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Todays average High/Low is 45/32. Still need a pretty cold airmass to get any appreciable snow. By Dec 4th the average is 39/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Todays average High/Low is 45/32. Still need a pretty cold airmass to get any appreciable snow. By Dec 4th the average is 39/27. I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I love that our climo vs areas towards the east end of NY (think Albany) and towards the coast is about 5 degrees on average lower which gives us so many more opportunities for smow either synoptically or meso. BN starting from mid December on usually puts us below freezing and gives us frozen more often than not. I've lived in Amherst, and i have lived in Albany. Where are you getting that 5 degree figure from? They seemed pretty similar to me. Where I live now, at 1650 feet in Otsego County is definitely colder than both those places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 8 minutes ago, cny rider said: I've lived in Amherst, and i have lived in Albany. Where are you getting that 5 degree figure from? They seemed pretty similar to me. Where I live now, at 1650 feet in Otsego County is definitely colder than both those places. If you use Albany as a starting point and head east and south the temps definitely get milder. I agree Albany and Amherst are similar but it doesnt take too long to find average warmer temps away from that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Yeah I lived out on Troy for few years, pretty cold out that way..They don't have to worry about warming from the lake.. Fulton for example is like 30/16.. First year here in January was 28/8..Much less cloud cover overnight.. Kalb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2019 Author Share Posted November 22, 2019 Yeah Buffalo is warm in the fall due to the warm lake Erie temps, but we stay colder in Spring due to all the ice which sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Forecast discussion hinting at possible high wind event for thanks giving coming to fruition... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Couple of the 18z models made a big jump NW. something to watch especially for eastern NY. RGEM looks interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Gfs has been on the Western side of the envelope for a while now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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