lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Meh kinda quite for a while so here’s a couple more photos that popped up on my face book memories today. Day 2 and my accomplishment was getting half my driveway cleared, finding my wife’s car and shoveling a path out to the middle of the street... even if it didn’t lead to anywhere just yet... . To me this is and will likley always be the number 1 storm in Buffalo history. Just an absolutely insane event. Truly once in a lifetime as BuffaloWeather posted the last time something even remotely close to this event happened was in the 40s... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 To me this is and will likley always be the number 1 storm in Buffalo history. Just an absolutely insane event. Truly once in a lifetime as BuffaloWeather posted the last time something even remotely close to this event happened was in the 40s...Dec 2001 was basically the same thing. 82” at KBUF over 5 days. So a little longer of a storm but not by much. Holds the #2 and #4 top 24 hour snowfall records. 35.4” on 12/27-12/28 and 25.2 on 12/24-12/25. Huge snowfall but with the storm hitting right after Christmas the public impact was extremely minimal when compared to Nov 2014. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 That's one sweet looking long range on the gfs ..Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Euro on board with the gfs while the majority of guidance (icon,Ggem,uk etc) are suppressed..Delivers few/several inches east of Ontario, more as you go north..Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Not the prettiest thing in the world but I'd take a couple/few inches of snow..Icon trended north the last few cycles..Gfs still wants to torch us with mostly rain.. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 It's hard for me to buy the ukmet, trust me I wish I could lolIt misses us completely with the synoptic system but nails us with lake effect precip on a Westerly flow..Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: It's hard for me to buy the ukmet, trust me I wish I could lol It misses us completely with the synoptic system but nails us with lake effect precip on a Westerly flow.. Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk I have to say that without a pig ridge in the Atlantic I'm kinda surprised how much this cuts on most models...i do like the ebd of the GFS run though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Maybe this cutter will finally break down the pattern..And some blocking!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Lakes exploded on the 0z gfs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 41 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: Now that is what we like to see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Only 11 days to go 12z gfs almost brings a tear to the eye lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Only 11 days to go 12z gfs almost brings a tear to the eye lol Blocking takes effect next week and continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Big things coming. Hugeeee lake effect potential. Was going to mention it yesterday but couldn’t post for some reason. I texted Devin but he isn’t excited. He’s now a warm weather lover. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Like the second half of December as Pv splits take a few weeks to take effect 1 hour ago, ayuud11 said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Indices trending in the right direction. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Only 11 days to go 12z gfs almost brings a tear to the eye lol I see three horrible Great Lakes Cutters going way west of us. Looks miserable out to 300 hours..... What am I missing?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I guess u missed the "only 11days to go" lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I guess u missed the "only 11days to go" lol I don't even see anything that even looks favorable for us...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 This cutter here creates feet of lake effect.. We all need different wind directions..I'm the only one on this board that needs a Westerly flow lol I'm pretty sure a lakes low doesn't promote NW winds.. But it will change.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Historically, the best W/SW flow lake effect events are cutters. I'll take a cutter with arctic air behind it every day of the week. Then you can get clippers that come in and reinforce the moisture and cold air and change the wind direction so everyone gets a piece of the action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 The Dec 2001 storm featured this type of low. The blocking is key to get this type of pattern. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B By about December 22nd, forecasters began to see signs of a significant change in the large scale weather pattern across North America. Advanced computer models were showing a blocking pattern developing over Greenland at upper levels of the atmosphere, forcing an upper level, closed low to develop and strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes. Forecasters on the eastern Great Lakes are familiar with this synoptic pattern, because it is conducive to the heaviest lake effect snows in western and central New York. The low was forecast to trap enough cold air from northern Canada to produce heavy lake snows. Even more alarming was the forecast that the upper low would move little, if any during the next week. This would produce more serious implications for the eastern lakes. 1. The pattern would mean that an extended period of lake effect snow was likely, possible for an entire week. 2. The wind direction would remain the same for a long time, which would result in a band staying over one particular region for days at a time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 From GL section: The look of a -NAO, -PNA and active sub-tropical jet would be very good for a lot of this sub-forum starting around the end of November (though intially may favor those in the northern half of it). If the EPO drops after day 10 as the ensembles are trying to hint at that would eventually shift the baroclinic zone far enough south for the Ohio Valley to also get more in the game for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 + PNA, -NAO and - EPO are the best combination of indices for our area, especially for lake effect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I guess I'm thinking more Synoptic as lake effect only accounts for 10-20 percent of my yearly snow total. Some of the favored locations look alright after storm number 3, the first two appear to transient to really setup anything long duration. I'm struggling to find hope right now, lol. Prop me up guys, give me hope, I need this positivity! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: I guess I'm thinking more Synoptic as lake effect only accounts for 10-20 percent of my yearly snow total. Some of the favored locations look alright after storm number 3, the first two appear to transient to really setup anything long duration. I'm struggling to find hope right now, lol. Prop me up guys, give me hope, I need this positivity! There should be a snowstorm in between one of these cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: + PNA, -NAO and - EPO are the best combination of indices for our area, especially for lake effect. I really need to sit down and study teleconnections again. I obviously know a little bit about the NAO and what usually works for us, but I can tell you that during my 4 years of studying meteorology, I don't think any one of those indices was ever mentioned a single time (Some of them probably werent even formally named or understood at that time). You guys definitely have a leg up on me when it comes to following these long term trends and indices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Lake effect counts for roughly half not 10 20 percent for rochester. More like 40 50 percent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Lake effect counts for roughly half not 10 20 percent for rochester. More like 40 50 percent Not on the west side of the city. You also inflate our lake effect numbers by a factor of 2 or 3 for most storms so I will remain a critic of your claims. I might clarify my statement by saying that pure lake effect accounts for 10-20 percent of my snowfall. Lake Enhancement might end up being 20-30 percent but that is much harder to quantify. That said, every single sizable storm I have ever gotten while living in Rochester was synoptic, never once have I gotten crushed by a lake effect event. Wayne county is a different story, so don't convolute the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 I always cheer for big time lake effect as travel bans allow me to get extra vacation time at work. I've only seen one synoptic storm do that. I think it was Jan. 2014. Getting paid to be at home during a blizzard is the greatest thing ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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