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5 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Meh kinda quite for a while so here’s a couple more photos that popped up on my face book memories today. Day 2 and my accomplishment was getting half my driveway cleared, finding my wife’s car and shoveling a path out to the middle of the street... even if it didn’t lead to anywhere just yet...

a88471d7faaeebcb574569f63aa638e2.jpgcc78fefee5e8544a4efe7a979070715c.jpg9eec94ea0a3e7cfd8d5babc360a5cc38.jpg516aa122548146bc64ec1c253d068c29.jpg


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To me this is and will likley always be the number 1 storm in Buffalo history. Just an absolutely insane event. Truly once in a lifetime as BuffaloWeather posted the last time something even remotely close to this event happened was in the 40s...

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To me this is and will likley always be the number 1 storm in Buffalo history. Just an absolutely insane event. Truly once in a lifetime as BuffaloWeather posted the last time something even remotely close to this event happened was in the 40s...


Dec 2001 was basically the same thing. 82” at KBUF over 5 days. So a little longer of a storm but not by much. Holds the #2 and #4 top 24 hour snowfall records. 35.4” on 12/27-12/28 and 25.2 on 12/24-12/25. Huge snowfall but with the storm hitting right after Christmas the public impact was extremely minimal when compared to Nov 2014.


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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

It's hard for me to buy the ukmet, trust me I wish I could lol

It misses us completely with the synoptic system but nails us with lake effect precip on a Westerly flow..9a8314a71000ecdecdcc334397fbc443.jpg

Sent from my Pixel 3 XL using Tapatalk
 

I have to say that without a pig ridge in the Atlantic I'm kinda surprised how much this cuts on most models...i do like the ebd of the GFS run though...

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The Dec 2001 storm featured this type of low. The blocking is key to get this type of pattern. 

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2001-2002&event=B

By about December 22nd, forecasters began to see signs of a 
significant change in the large scale weather pattern across North 
America. Advanced computer models were showing a blocking pattern 
developing over Greenland at upper levels of the atmosphere, forcing 
an upper level, closed low to develop and strengthen over the Upper 
Great Lakes. Forecasters on the eastern Great Lakes are familiar 
with this synoptic pattern, because it is conducive to the heaviest 
lake effect snows in western and central New York.
The low was forecast to trap enough cold air from northern Canada to 
produce heavy lake snows. Even more alarming was the forecast that 
the upper low would move little, if any during the next week. This 
would produce more serious implications for the eastern lakes.
1. The pattern would mean that an extended period of lake effect 
snow was likely, possible for an entire week. 
2. The wind direction would remain the same for a long time, which 
would result in a band staying over one particular region for days 
at a time.
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From GL section:

The look of a -NAO, -PNA and active sub-tropical jet would be very good for a lot of this sub-forum starting around the end of November (though intially may favor those in the northern half of it).  If the EPO drops after day 10 as the ensembles are trying to hint at that would eventually shift the baroclinic zone far enough south for the Ohio Valley to also get more in the game for early December. 

68C1FA40-7550-44BE-B821-1BE0F7C47BA1.thumb.png.f8f6ae84c33ee809fa03fa5ba948cb53.png

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I guess I'm thinking more Synoptic as lake effect only accounts for 10-20 percent of my yearly snow total.  Some of the favored locations look alright after storm number 3, the first two appear to transient to really setup anything long duration.  I'm struggling to find hope right now, lol.  Prop me up guys, give me hope, I need this positivity!

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

I guess I'm thinking more Synoptic as lake effect only accounts for 10-20 percent of my yearly snow total.  Some of the favored locations look alright after storm number 3, the first two appear to transient to really setup anything long duration.  I'm struggling to find hope right now, lol.  Prop me up guys, give me hope, I need this positivity!

There should be a snowstorm in between one of these cutters. 

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

+ PNA, -NAO and - EPO are the best combination of indices for our area, especially for lake effect. 

I really need to sit down and study teleconnections again. I obviously know a little bit about the NAO and what usually works for us, but I can tell you that during my 4 years of studying meteorology, I don't think any one of those indices was ever mentioned a single time (Some of them probably werent even formally named or understood at that time).  You guys definitely have a leg up on me when it comes to following these long term trends and indices. 

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12 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Lake effect counts for roughly half not 10 20 percent for rochester. More like 40 50 percent

Not on the west side of the city.  You also inflate our lake effect numbers by a factor of 2 or 3 for most storms so I will remain a critic of your claims.   

I might clarify my statement by saying that pure lake effect accounts for 10-20 percent of my snowfall.  Lake Enhancement might end up being 20-30 percent but that is much harder to quantify.  That said, every single sizable storm I have ever gotten while living in Rochester was synoptic, never once have I gotten crushed by a lake effect event.   Wayne county is a different story, so don't convolute the two. 

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