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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This pattern is the dumps. If it’s followed by a warm December it’s gonna be tough. 

I don't see a wall to wall AN pattern shaping up for December...i think lots of ups and downs where we get chances for storms but it may have to time out right. I think there will be plenty of cold days but the average will be slightly AN

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This should definitely be expected!! I've been talking about and harping on this exact scenario since I got on the board this year and here we effen go all over again with a AN Dec which should run right into the heart of our beloved season, oh well we were bound to get a crapper sooner or later, perhaps its this yr!

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Cold Novembers DO NOT correlate well with the following 3 months, as theres a definitive warm correlation versus a cold one but October is a different story. As well as a warm November, that's why I love warm ones but oh well, another wasted month on cold and snow that will all be gone by the time the true holiday season hits, RLMAO so next yr when you're rooting for ur BY to get Jack-potted for cold and snow in November, maybe you'll think twice and try and will it the other way, meaning the WEST COAST lol!

 

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Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Cold Novembers DO NOT correlate well with following 3 months which there a definitive alarm correlation versus a cold one but October is a different story as well as a warm November that's why I love warm ones but oh well, another wasted month on cold and snow that will all be gone by the true holiday season hits, RLMAO so next yr when you're rooting for ur BY to get Jack-potted for cold and snow in November, maybe you'll think twice and will it the other way, meaning the WEST COAST lol!

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Rooting for storms doesnt change the actual weather, just an FYI.  I'll root for any storm at anytime because storms are more fun that boring ass weather, you have to live in the now when it comes to weather.  I'm not thrilled about the potential of a warm December, but holding a 6+ inch snowpack for 7-10 days in mid November was note worthy and an experience I've rarely if ever seen, so I'm quite happy to have experienced that.  

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From Nov. 2014 discussion. You usually need at least double digit negative 850s to get anything of semblance with LES aside from very early events. 

From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an 
unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and 
climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over 
a 30 year climatology.   500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to 
-42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening.  With lake temperatures 
around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb 
temperature and maxed out near 20000'.  Further up in the 
atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in 
recent memory.  The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C 
was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum.  From 
pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" 
of snow in the forecast over four days in advance.  Data from the 
Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation 
Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow 
events for Buffalo.

From the 2nd event

A very favorable climatological pattern for heavy lake effect snow 
was in place over the lower Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, Nov 
19 and 20, as a deep closed H5 low was centered near the Michigan 
Straits while anomalously cold air was over the upper Ohio Valley 
and Mid West.  At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Great 
Lakes Wednesday afternoon tracked across Southern Ontario to the 
Ottawa Valley by Thursday morning... then to the St Lawrence Valley 
by Thursday evening.  This synoptic pattern circulated H85 temps of 
-14c across the lower Great Lakes to produce moderate to extreme 
instability over the relatively mild lake waters.  The building 
instability was accompanied by a capping inversion that rose from 
around 7k ft at the start of the event to around 15k ft at its peak.

The comparable event to this is listed from 1945

During December 14-18, 
1945.  The airport measured nearly 37 inches with in excess of 70 
inches just 4-6 miles south (Lancaster). 
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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

From Nov. 2014 discussion


From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an 
unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and 
climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over 
a 30 year climatology.   500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to 
-42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening.  With lake temperatures 
around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb 
temperature and maxed out near 20000'.  Further up in the 
atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in 
recent memory.  The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C 
was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum.  From 
pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" 
of snow in the forecast over four days in advance.  Data from the 
Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation 
Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow 
events for Buffalo.

Well we won't need to get it that cold as it would be closer to December and it "Appears" it would be growing colder with time

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I like how they referenced CIPS analogs. I like them and hate them at the same time. Some of the top analogs are not even close to what occurs. However, I find them more accurate in LES events than synoptic. The last synoptic event analogs you had to go to number 7 to get anything close to what occurred. The top 6 were basically non events despite the highest matches for atmospheric conditions. 

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Well I finally zero'd out my snowfall o.g. estimate, although we still have patches of snow here and there.  Pretty impressive for early/mid November as I only had about 4" of snowfall with the last storm and 7" total for the month to date.  So basically anything further this month gets my locale to average snowfall and likely BN monthly avg temp 

I don't think the next few weeks will be a total shutout for wintry precip but that -PNA forecast isn't a good sign, if it materializes for any length of time. Think SE ridge...its more of a problem further south though as we can oftentimes still Cobb something together up here even with unfavorable patterns.

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