PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Nam jumps off, Icon jumps on..Kinda starting out like last event lol But I guess that's every event.. Huge differences at 500mb between icon and gfs. Icon really wants to energize this piece of energy and closes off over Upstate NY while the GfS keeps it open at upper levels from what I’m seeing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 7 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: I am staying in Geneva, NY. It is near the top of Seneca Lake. That is where the college I go to is which is Hobart and William Smith Colleges. Welcome! My wife and I really enjoy visiting Geneva. I LOVE the pathway along the lake and going into the State Park. It's not too far from where we live in the Baldwinsville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 And the ICON caves. I would write this one off for western NY. Central upstate NY Adirondacks might be in for a quick 1-3 as rain transitions to snow. Unless models move this west. Gonna be some fun tracking at least. It’s early in the season and many of us are spoiled, including me. I would gladly take another inch to whiten the ground up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Does anyone with more scientific weather knowledge please tell me what a long lasting cutoff low at 500-700mb in the BAJA peninsula means for formation of low pressures in our area. Thank you. If it’s cut off from the flow would it even matter? I’m assuming not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Ukmet still doing dirty things but it's on its own.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Last night's euro was close enough to keep me slightly interested, albeit weak.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Rain changes over to snow on the Canadian, small area with light accumulation.. Moderation in temperatures begins Sunday night as return flow around the high pressure start to allow a bit less cold air to encroach. Further, by early next week, as high pressure moves off the coast of the northeast, a system or couple of systems will round the base of the long wave trough centered over the upper Great Lakes. This will allow for these systems to track up the east coast with possible impacts to our area by Monday through Tuesday. Unfortunately, clustering of ensembles and agreements amongst operational models is sorely lacking. Thus, confidence in chances of precipitation, precipitation type, and temperatures is low. However, given the preponderance of guidance suggesting a surface low track either just to our east or very far to our east, it seemed prudent to continue to chances of wintry mix, especially during the overnight Monday night time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Boring runs latley. Hopefully that changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Super dull. This still has a 1:10 chance of cutting left and throwing back some colder air and snow but it looks less and less likely. lots of impulses over the next weeks but none look exciting. I guess we have to wait for the Greenland block? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 A little bump west on the European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2019 Share Posted November 16, 2019 Only a matter of time before the usual suspects get theirs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 The problem with an early storm is that now I’m all revved up and realizing that it might be a good while before we track another...dang. Still have several inches of goop though. Should’ve gotten a Christmas tree yesterday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Check out the 18z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: The problem with an early storm is that now I’m all revved up and realizing that it might be a good while before we track another...dang. Still have several inches of goop though. Should’ve gotten a Christmas tree yesterday! I have the exact same fear. I posted this a few days ago. "As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season. It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this. Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter. This is fairly unprecedented stuff here." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 GFS is cooking up a bomb for Thanksgiving... . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Euro has something a couple days earlier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 30 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro has something a couple days earlier.. Looks to be a separate system all together.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Snow in November sucks, it's easy as that except If it's just past Thanksgivings then things can get cranking. These early storms, Well what I experienced wasn't even a storm, suck as their like Spring snow Storms, others got hit nice by it though, others got stugots(if ur Italian you'll get that one), I absolutely hate Snow in November, simple as that!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 Happy snovember anniversary! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Happy snovember anniversary! I’ll never forget that one. We went to my in-laws house in Gardenville after the storm finally ended and public works had sent a high-lift down their street. I was mentally prepared for the walls of snow, but what really shocked me was when I was climbing over snow to rake their roof and managed to get to my feet, which sunk into the snow then found a solid object that I could stand on... it was the top of their six foot fence. The snow was so deep that it topped a 72 inch fence by at least half a foot and probably more, and that was without drifting. It was almost as remarkable that the snow cover was entirely gone within a week and a half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2019 Author Share Posted November 17, 2019 34 minutes ago, WNash said: I’ll never forget that one. We went to my in-laws house in Gardenville after the storm finally ended and public works had sent a high-lift down their street. I was mentally prepared for the walls of snow, but what really shocked me was when I was climbing over snow to rake their roof and managed to get to my feet, which sunk into the snow then found a solid object that I could stand on... it was the top of their six foot fence. The snow was so deep that it topped a 72 inch fence by at least half a foot and probably more, and that was without drifting. It was almost as remarkable that the snow cover was entirely gone within a week and a half. Yeah, over 6" of SWE equivalent melted in a week besides the piles. We had 1-2" of rain and temps above 50 for 3-4 days if I remember correctly. I think I slept a few hours that entire week. I couldn't believe what was happening outside, I honestly didn't think that was possible. 65" in 24 hours. Ratios were also lower than typical lake effect. It was some of the heaviest snow I shoveled. For instance, last weeks event was much easier to shovel in terms of snow density then during that storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Near miss for a few/several inches with the follow up energy behind the original coastal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Near miss for a few/several inches with the follow up energy behind the original coastal.. Ukmet about 50 miles west of the ECM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 Happy snovember anniversary!. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2019 Share Posted November 17, 2019 58 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: . Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Still looking like winter out there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Full snow cover here too since the storm but this pattern is Looking like a warm December again too? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Full snow cover here too since the storm but this pattern is Looking like a warm December again too? Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift. There is the potential for an event the next 2 weeks, very up and down pattern. There is no abnormally cold air anywhere in North America for quite awhile. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 A negative PNA almost always results in a warmer then average pattern for us. Nearly every index is going the wrong way aside from NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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