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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Nam jumps off, Icon jumps on..Kinda starting out like last event lol But I guess that's every event..

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28.png

Huge differences at 500mb between icon and gfs. Icon really wants to energize this piece of energy and closes off over Upstate NY while the GfS keeps it open at upper levels from what I’m seeing.

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7 hours ago, SnowLover22 said:

I am staying in Geneva, NY. It is near the top of Seneca Lake. That is where the college I go to is which is Hobart and William Smith Colleges. 

Welcome! My wife and I really enjoy visiting Geneva. I LOVE the pathway along the lake and going into the State Park. It's not too far from where we live in the Baldwinsville area.

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And the ICON caves. I would write this one off for western NY. Central upstate NY Adirondacks might be in for a quick 1-3 as rain transitions to snow. Unless models move this west. Gonna be some fun tracking at least. It’s early in the season and many of us are spoiled, including me. I would gladly take another inch to whiten the ground up.

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Rain changes over to snow on the Canadian, small area with light accumulation..

sn10_acc.us_ne (13).png

Moderation in temperatures begins Sunday night as return flow
around the high pressure start to allow a bit less cold air to
encroach. Further, by early next week, as high pressure moves
off the coast of the northeast, a system or couple of systems
will round the base of the long wave trough centered over the
upper Great Lakes. This will allow for these systems to track up
the east coast with possible impacts to our area by Monday
through Tuesday. Unfortunately, clustering of ensembles and
agreements amongst operational models is sorely lacking. Thus,
confidence in chances of precipitation, precipitation type, and
temperatures is low. However, given the preponderance of
guidance suggesting a surface low track either just to our east
or very far to our east, it seemed prudent to continue to
chances of wintry mix, especially during the overnight Monday
night time frame.
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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

The problem with an early storm is that now I’m all revved up and realizing that it might be a good while before we track another...dang. 
Still have several inches of goop though. Should’ve gotten a Christmas tree yesterday! 

I have the exact same fear.  I posted this a few days ago.

"As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season.  It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this.  Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter.  This is fairly unprecedented stuff here."  

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Snow in November sucks, it's easy as that except If it's just past Thanksgivings then things can get cranking. These early storms, Well what I experienced wasn't even a storm, suck as their like Spring snow Storms, others got hit nice by it though, others got stugots(if ur Italian you'll get that one), I absolutely hate Snow in November, simple as that!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Happy snovember anniversary!

I’ll never forget that one. We went to my in-laws house in Gardenville after the storm finally ended and public works had sent a high-lift down their street. I was mentally prepared for the walls of snow, but what really shocked me was when I was climbing over snow to rake their roof and managed to get to my feet, which sunk into the snow then found a solid object that I could stand on... it was the top of their six foot fence. The snow was so deep that it topped a 72 inch fence by at least half a foot and probably more, and that was without drifting.

It was almost as remarkable that the snow cover was entirely gone within a week and a half.

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34 minutes ago, WNash said:

I’ll never forget that one. We went to my in-laws house in Gardenville after the storm finally ended and public works had sent a high-lift down their street. I was mentally prepared for the walls of snow, but what really shocked me was when I was climbing over snow to rake their roof and managed to get to my feet, which sunk into the snow then found a solid object that I could stand on... it was the top of their six foot fence. The snow was so deep that it topped a 72 inch fence by at least half a foot and probably more, and that was without drifting.

It was almost as remarkable that the snow cover was entirely gone within a week and a half.

Yeah, over 6" of SWE equivalent melted in a week besides the piles. We had 1-2" of rain and temps above 50 for 3-4 days if I remember correctly. I think I slept a few hours that entire week. I couldn't believe what was happening outside, I honestly didn't think that was possible. 65" in 24 hours. Ratios were also lower than typical lake effect. It was some of the heaviest snow I shoveled. For instance, last weeks event was much easier to shovel in terms of snow density then during that storm.

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43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Full snow cover here too since the storm but this pattern is :sleepy:

Looking like a warm December again too? 

Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift.

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15 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes still full snow cover in Williamsville as well...alot of uncertainty regarding December, chatter both ways, but most saying a mild start with a colder second half. If there really is perturbing of the PV like GFS and EPS is showing at months and that would make sense that towards weeks 3 and 4 we see a pattern shift.

There is the potential for an event the next 2 weeks, very up and down pattern. There is no abnormally cold air anywhere in North America for quite awhile. 

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