WxNoob Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 After busting big time the past couple days we managed to pick up 3 inches in 2 hours this morning on a nasty little micro squall off NW flow from a Great Lakes/Cayuga connection. Got to love all the little micro climates the lakes provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 I woke up to 3 or 4 inches of super fluff this morning as that band shifted West late last night. However this snow cannot be compared to the storm snow, this had to be 25:1 type stuff while the storm was closer to 8:1. Really no comparison. But damn it looked beautiful out there. As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season. It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this. Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter. This is fairly unprecedented stuff here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I woke up to 3 or 4 inches of super fluff this morning as that band shifted West late last night. However this snow cannot be compared to the storm snow, this had to be 25:1 type stuff while the storm was closer to 8:1. Really no comparison. But damn it looked beautiful out there. As a side note, I'm afraid we've set the bar really high early in the season. It could truthfully be almost 2 months before we hit another wintry stretch like this. Or it could literally not be this cold and snowy again for the remainder of the winter. This is fairly unprecedented stuff here. Damn it im trying to copy, paste do whatever it takes but there are some real signs of a rather large PV disruption being forecast by the EPS and now the GEFS by Thanksgiving...also if you look at the forecasts for temps ten days out they have trended colder and the warm up appears gone...best temps I saw were next week's mind thru thursd and it was low 40's at best and then back to the 30's towards Thanksgiving...im really liking what im seeing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 A little SW flow ahead of the next front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Looking out beyond this period into the middle to latter portions of next week...the medium range guidance packages have diverged considerably over the last 24 hours...which for the time being results in at least somewhat lower confidence in the return to milder temperatures persisting beyond the end of this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Little outdated, made 5 days ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Nice shot of one of the lake bands from Ch2 tower cam over downtown this morning. Love the cloud bands this time of year!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 24 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looking out beyond this period into the middle to latter portions of next week...the medium range guidance packages have diverged considerably over the last 24 hours...which for the time being results in at least somewhat lower confidence in the return to milder temperatures persisting beyond the end of this period. Thank you Wolfie!!! Every time I try to attach something it says file too big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 I'm also leaning towards slightly below normal temps next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Make sure your attachments aren't full.. Or that the file size doesn't exceed 1.95mb.. Go to account-Attachments.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Thoughts on Thursday PM into Friday AM? NWS is factoring the marginal temps and only calling for an inch in BUF when the SW flow sets up but the hi res models are all putting together a somewhat decent looking band to meander around the metro for a few hours and a possible narrow bullseye of a few inches? P type could end up being an issue but maybe something to watch? Transition Zone special on the ARW!. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 Something to watch but I think it's a little bit too warm. I'd also favor Buffalo north with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 43 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Nice shot of one of the lake bands from Ch2 tower cam over downtown this morning. Love the cloud bands this time of year! . Amazing how shallow cloud base is 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 17 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Something to watch but I think it's a little bit too warm. I'd also favor Buffalo north with this one. If it got cranking enough, which I doubt based on the current dynamics, it COULD overcome the marginal temps and become all snow while dynamically cooling the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Hey anyone see the radar returns just to our west over the thumb and western great lakes? Is that tomorrow's system already? Lots of blossoming returns and imbedded heavy snow with lake enhancement...if this arrives earlier say overnight we might catch lightning in a bottle NE of Lake Erie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 13, 2019 Author Share Posted November 13, 2019 Big total from lake effect in Michigan. 0211 PM HEAVY SNOW 3 W SUTTONS BAY 44.98N 85.72W 11/12/2019 M31.7 INCH LEELANAU MI TRAINED SPOTTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Some nice tea kettle lake effect out over erie right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 So is the HRRR on to something??? The lake effect/enhancement with the S/W looks impressive...will the dynamics hold here??? Thousand dollar question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 13, 2019 Share Posted November 13, 2019 Now that’s neat! . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Don’t look now. Icon and Canadian doing weird stuff. Retrograde stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Snowing moderate to heavy in Lancaster. Roads covered. Is that lake effect setting up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Ripping my whole drive to work on 219 from West Seneca to Boston. Roads are completely covered and it’s probably coming down close to an inch an hour. Very unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Don’t look now. Icon and Canadian doing weird stuff. Retrograde stuff Whole week to figure this one out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Stopped snowing, but good for a quick inch an interesting drive in. Maybe later we get another surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Whole week to figure this one out.. The GFS is just as close...and it now appears enough cold air will be around that if it wraps up tight enough we could see a hybrid of lake enhancement and synoptic from Ontario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 It really feels like mid winter out there. Everything is snow covered and it's cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 Lake Erie is 1 degrees below normal for the date at 48 degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 Snowing pretty good here.. Some green returns popping up over the crib.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2019 Share Posted November 14, 2019 2 potential storms next week.. Euro was keying on the 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2019 Author Share Posted November 14, 2019 With no cold high, might be rain/mix. Something to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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