BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Finished with 10.2" here. Current snow depth averages at 8.5". My snowblower didn't work, had to shovel my entire driveway. Definitely lost a lb or 2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Finished with 10.2" here. Current snow depth averages at 8.5". My snowblower didn't work, had to shovel my entire driveway. Definitely lost a lb or 2. Did it just bog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, Luke_Mages said: Did it just bog? My dad got me an ariens 24" snowblower from one of his jobs. It started a few months ago, but this morning it just wasn't having it. He's coming over to try to fix it and if not I'm just going to buy a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: My dad got me an ariens 24" snowblower from one of his jobs. It started a few months ago, but this morning it just wasn't having it. He's coming over to try to fix it and if not I'm just going to buy a new one. If its just the motor one of the funnest projects ive done was swapping the tired old 8hp motor of my grandfathers snowblower and replacing it with a 13hp harbor freight engine for $300. I couldnt stop laughing the first time i used it. I forget for sure but pretty sure it bolted right up and i just needed a longer belt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, Luke_Mages said: If its just the motor one of the funnest projects ive done was swapping the tired old 8hp motor of my grandfathers snowblower and replacing it with a 13hp harbor freight engine for $300. I couldnt stop laughing the first time i used it. I forget for sure but pretty sure it bolted right up and i just needed a longer belt. Is that a transformer emblem on the front there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Some 30" totals coming out of Michigan with those full lake snow bands. Empire, in the upper Lower Peninsula, got hit with 30 inches in the past 24 hours, and Bangor, on the state's west side, got hit with 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Is that a transformer emblem on the front there? Yep couldnt help myself lol. My wife named it optimus prime. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, Luke_Mages said: Yep couldnt help myself lol. My wife named it optimus prime. I need this on mine haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. If you break it down to get to that percent above normal the airport would need 93"...so in otherwards normal snowfall from this point on and we are still 6 weeks from actual winter...even though meteorological winter on December 1st is really where I start counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Yep couldnt help myself lol. My wife named it optimus prime. It’s a beauty! I’ve always wanted to try swapping one out. I just used my new Ariens classic 24”, 9.5 HP. I’m thinking I could of used a little bit bigger tires and more HP, but it’ll do the trick. Not bad for 700. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Potential for some lake enhancement on SW flow on Thursday/thurs night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Georgian bay band forming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 In and out of multi bands, one minute heavy snow the next minute sunshine lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers. There is definitely a correlation in temps I believe, not sure how to swipe it from the Mid Atlantic forum but one of their regular posters to the FRD or PSUHoffman posted a map that showed if we are below average in November there was a correlation to negative anomalies that upcoming winter as well...let me see if I can locate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: My dad got me an ariens 24" snowblower from one of his jobs. It started a few months ago, but this morning it just wasn't having it. He's coming over to try to fix it and if not I'm just going to buy a new one. Geez man, don't do that. Ariens will run for decades. I have one right now from the 80's and its an absolute beast. Usually a little starter fluid in the carb will get it running if it won't start. Otherwise, just pony up 200 bucks to have the carb rebuilt and general once over and it will be good to go for years. Save your money to fix that fence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Does anyone know how much farther NW the system went to cause the dry slow across central Ny that was only in the hrrr and last minute NAM? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz. An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank. Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 Dog loves it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz. An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank. Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected. Yeah, I mean models are pretty notorious for focusing too much precipitation in cold season northeast of lows near low level warm advection maximas and not focusing enough precipitation in the deformation zone northwest of lows. The other issue, of course, is that even if the qpf in the warm area of the low is only slightly undermodeled, 850 WAA with 850-700mb temperatures of zero to minus 8 is going to yield shit flake production. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz. An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank. Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected. Well it was an intensifying low even if it was an open wave. Either way Central NY got much lower accumulations then forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Some parts of Oswego county didn't do to bad.. Forecast was 6"-10" by morning.. The SE part of the county suffered the most, for obvious reasons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Well it was an intensifying low even if it was an open wave. Either way Central NY got much lower accumulations then forecasted. The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw. Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year. Well, consider this a nice head start for BUF and ROC in the Golden Snowball contest vs SYR. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Western lake ontario starting to pop cumulus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Western lake ontario starting to pop cumulus Yup, some GB moisture coming in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Ended up close to 5" total, lol, what a colossal bust but this was a toughie to bbn forecast for sure and the model that I'll never look at again is the RGEM, horrific for days, it better stick to me so that's for sure!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Ended up close to 5" total, lol, what a colossal bust but this was a toughie to bbn forecast for sure and the model that I'll never look at again is the RGEM, horrific for days, it better stick to me so that's for sure!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Having grown up on the Jersey short and lived in Philly and NW NJ before moving up here, it’s almost hard for me to ever complain!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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