PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The precip across WNY is having some back building as the winds go NE and get added moisture from Ontario. Filling in nice. Syracuse gonna get some lovin’ real soon. Off topic but Ganges Michigan. Drag band right now. Foot of snow expected there in the next 6-10 hours... love the lake effect that comes of Lake Michigan. Jealous I never experienced late effect. It must feel so different from synoptic with those insane rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Do you only have access to this if you are part of the NWS? Is this posted just because of the record or continuously posted throughout all storms? The snowfall amount itself was just posted because of the storm.. NWS twitter and NWS chat is a public resource though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018 During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018 During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing. How do you read this? Looks interesting and resourceful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Buff Weather appears to have a good eye...just as the back end approaches you can see the area fill in on a NE/SW orientation. I'm optimistic of 10" and a foot is not impossible from buffalo to lake Ontario 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: How do you read this? Looks interesting and resourceful http://meteocentre.com/doc/metar.html fill yer boots. It's too tough to explain thoroughly in a single post. There's a lot to metar reporting code. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: http://meteocentre.com/doc/metar.html fill yer boots. It's too tough to explain thoroughly in a single post. There's a lot to metar reporting code. So true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: http://meteocentre.com/doc/metar.html fill yer boots. It's too tough to explain thoroughly in a single post. There's a lot to metar reporting code. Where do you get the metar readings from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 The heaviest snow is now covering far WNY this evening with snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr, with lower snow rates further east. The SE edge of the precipitation band has been somewhat stubborn over the past several hours, with a few areas in the Southern Tier seeing very little or no precipitation thus far, although that will change overnight with a burst of snow. Areas along the SE edge have also had a little mixed precipitation, either from a warm nose poking across the 0C line near the state line, or from a lack of moisture in the column further NE across the Finger Lakes to the Southern Adirondacks. But all areas should see snow, or a return to snow as the upstream trough continues eastward and finally pushes the slow moving band of precipitation east overnight. Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area. A Winter Storm Warning remains with storm total accumulations of 7- 10 inches, with some local amounts of close to 12 inches where mesoscale banding and/or lake enhancement develops. The bulk of this accumulation will be through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, when travel conditions will be worst. Snowfall amounts will be much lower across far southern Cattaraugus and southern Allegany counties, where the wintry mix will hold snow amounts to the 3-5 inch range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Where do you get the metar readings from? https://www.aviationweather.gov/metar/data?ids=KBUF&format=raw&date=&hours=6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 8.6" in West Seneca at 10:30pm, snow continues to fall. Average just over 7" in my yard with 5 different measurements. Should hit 10" before all is said and done here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 So this is interesting. Buffalo makes this statement tonight "Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area." However Cleveland is sitting at 34 with with definitive and indisputable lake enhancement right now. I'm not calling them out, just curious about the discrepancy. This radar is a beaut! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Snowfall rate of about .75/ hour over the last 3. At 6” now. Could see hitting double digits with a little love from the lake. Gonna be a big gradient for this one. Definitely was a bit warmer aloft. Any thoughts on which model performed the best? EURO had the NW idea but didn’t pickup the warm nose or dryslot (or whatever we’re calling it). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 31 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: 8.6" in West Seneca at 10:30pm, snow continues to fall. Average just over 7" in my yard with 5 different measurements. Should hit 10" before all is said and done here. We were right at 7” when I went out to snowblow just after 10, and it’s inch-per-hour stuff, so I think we’re gonna hit 10” easily. Good head start, to get over 10% of our mean seasonal snowfall before it’s even November 15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: So this is interesting. Buffalo makes this statement tonight "Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area." However Cleveland is sitting at 34 with with definitive and indisputable lake enhancement right now. I'm not calling them out, just curious about the discrepancy. This radar is a beaut! I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: How do you read this? Looks interesting and resourceful KBUF - station identifier (Buffalo airport) 120254Z - date and time of observation (12th at 2:54 Z = 9:54 PM EST) 02011KT - wind direction and speed (020 degrees or NNE at 11 knots) 1/2SM - visibility (1/2 statute mile) R23 5000V6000 FT (runway 23 visibility variable 5000 to 6000 ft) SN FZFG (obstruction to visibility in this case moderate snow and freezing fog) VV009 - not sure what this is M03/M06 - temperature and dew point in Celsius A2995 - altimeter reading (29.95 inches) This is followed by remarks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion. It might not make an appreciable difference in total inches but it really helps maintain the treacherous roads and overall impact for those locations. I also wonder if the entire south shore of Erie looks like that but the radar is overshooting it all? Buffalo specifically mentions boundary layer temps which are definitely warmer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Now that I think of it, perhaps the ASOS in cleveland is right near the water or heavily influenced by a shallow layer of modified Lake erie air and the rest of the column is much colder. hmmmm Either way, I think that bodes well for at least a few hours of similar snow off of Ontario Later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Heavy band. Big flakes. Can’t see nothing. Loving it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: It might not make an appreciable difference in total inches but it really helps maintain the treacherous roads and overall impact for those locations. I also wonder if the entire south shore of Erie looks like that but the radar is overshooting it all? Buffalo specifically mentions boundary layer temps which are definitely warmer there. Yeah but the end of the sentence mentions the SGZ, so I think they mean the entire lower atmosphere as a whole, which i agree with. The boundary layer per say supports some lake enhanced precipitation. If you had a legit lake enhanced setup you would be upping ratios considerably over 10:1 because you would be getting dendrites from the convection mixing in with the crappier flakes from the synoptic storm. They mention the lake enhancement at the end of the storm, which would do exactly as you said its probably going to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 12, 2019 Author Share Posted November 12, 2019 7.2" as of 11 PM here. Snowing at 1"+ per, much better flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 KBUF 120454Z 03007KT 1/2SM R23/4500V5500FT SN FZFG VV009 M04/M06 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP149 SNINCR 1/9 P0005 T10391056 400221039 $ 9" otg now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Can you post kroc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 METAR text: KROC 120454Z 01020G24KT 1/2SM R04/3500V5000FT SN FZFG VV008 M03/M05 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0004 T10331050 400281033 Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0454 UTC 12 November 2019 Temperature: -3.3°C (26°F) Dewpoint: -5.0°C (23°F) [RH = 88%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1014.7 mb] Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.3 m/s) gusting to 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s) Visibility: 0.50 miles (0.80 km) Ceiling: indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 800 feet AGL Clouds: obscured sky Weather: SN FZFG (moderate snow, freezing fog) METAR text: KROC 120354Z 03012KT 3/4SM R04/5000VP6000FT -SN BR OVC006 M02/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP144 SNINCR 1/7 P0005 T10221033 Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0354 UTC 12 November 2019 Temperature: -2.2°C (28°F) Dewpoint: -3.3°C (26°F) [RH = 92%] Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb) [Sea-level pressure: 1014.4 mb] Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s) Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km) Ceiling: 600 feet AGL Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL Weather: -SN BR (light snow, mist) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 KROC 120454Z 01020G24KT 1/2SM R04/3500V5000FT SN FZFG VV008 M03/M05 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0004 T10331050 400281033 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 ROC has been running behind BUF on accumulations so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Now I see VV stands for vertical visibility when the ceiling is indefinite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Thanks so guessing 8 inches now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 Ripping out currently.. 3.5" as of 1230 am.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 12, 2019 Share Posted November 12, 2019 000 NOUS41 KBUF 120613 PNSBUF NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-121813- PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 113 AM EST TUE NOV 12 2019 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... LOCATION AMOUNT TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...NEW YORK... ...ERIE COUNTY... BUFFALO AIRPORT 9.4 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OFFICIAL NWS OBS 2 SE WEST SENECA 6.5 IN 1040 PM 11/11 PUBLIC 1 WSW AKRON 5.5 IN 1000 PM 11/11 NWS EMPLOYEE ...JEFFERSON COUNTY... 6 NNE CHAUMONT 4.9 IN 0930 PM 11/11 PUBLIC ...MONROE COUNTY... ROCHESTER AIRPORT 8.6 IN 0100 AM 11/12 OTHER FEDERAL 2 NW ROCHESTER 7.5 IN 1115 PM 11/11 TRAINED SPOTTER && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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