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Rates across the Niagara frontier will suffer a bit through early afternoon due to poor snow growth and the best 850-700 fronto over southern Ontario. Once the lift collapses to the southeast the niagara frontier should go to town this evening with rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour at times. Lake enhancement is marginal due to no dendritic snow crystal production in the low levels until about 06z as the storm pulls away. 

BUF 10"

IAG 11"

ROC 13"

SYR 5"

 

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1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

This idiotic model has 1.5" falling all the way to the coast and thats not happening. I'd divide this map /3!

Actually quite a few models show enough precipitation left over behind the front to give the coast a little winter..Gfs,Nam,Arw2 etc...

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18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, are the HRRR and RAP going to be correct?

If so, Syracuse folks you can thank me for the crappy winter coming...………………………………………………..

I think we get hit hard in the morning hours and top off with a couple to few lake enhanced inches. 7 or 8” seems about right. 

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Yeah. Coming down good in Irondequoit (n side of Roc). Still a bit worried about the dreaded taint but there ain’t nothing to do about it so may as well enjoy. It sure looks like the start of a good one! 
Just picked up the new snow thrower!
1/2 mile visi 33f (30 away from lake). 

Enjoy everyone. May we all overachieve! 

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

So, are the HRRR and RAP going to be correct?

If so, Syracuse folks you can thank me for the crappy winter coming...………………………………………………..

Where is this mix you speak of?  ;)

Steady snow which has picked up in "steadiness" and flake quality over the past hour.  About 1/2 - 3/4" down.  I'm near the county border though, not downtown.

 

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13 minutes ago, tim123 said:

When that death band is at its peak I could see 2 inches a hour in it. 

I see people spontaneously going into cryogenic freezes and shattering apart into millions of pieces. Why the NWS isnt hitting this threat harder is beyond me. Lives are at stake.

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