BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Legit snowstorm in Minnesota this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 7, 2019 Author Share Posted October 7, 2019 Sets up a nice LER event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 7, 2019 Share Posted October 7, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Sets up a nice LER event. 7 weeks and we'd be grinning ear to freaking ear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 On 10/7/2019 at 10:59 AM, Thinksnow18 said: 7 weeks and we'd be grinning ear to freaking ear. It’ll come, and it’ll likely be here before we know it. I’m loving this 60-70 degrees and sunshine everyday with mornings starting out in the 40s. Just fantastic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 8, 2019 Share Posted October 8, 2019 3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said: It’ll come, and it’ll likely be here before we know it. I’m loving this 60-70 degrees and sunshine everyday with mornings starting out in the 40s. Just fantastic! Agreed...plus the trees that haven't exploded yet in color will after the next 4 days of near 70° daytime and 45° nights...heading out to Letchworth with the wife and kids Sunday to see the foliage...should be spectacular 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Been watching this for a few days now... Super Typhoon Hagibis is now up to a comparable Cat 5 storm curving toward Japan.Strong model agreement the storm will graze Japan and then get pulled up toward Alaska.General idea here is the storm will get pulled up the Asian cost and possibly bomb back out in the Bering Straight. Details start to diverge here but overall thought is the storm gets caught up and just spins out for a week plus time. As this is going on the storm pumps up the western ridge and starts digging a trough south and east into the upper lakes. Not looking at the details yet but the overall idea holds some needing to watch. Nice easy to read tidbit I saw.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 Yeah that is going to mess with the longwave pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Its one run but the 6z GOOFUS would have VERY chilly weather in about 1 week through the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Been watching this for a few days now... Super Typhoon Hagibis is now up to a comparable Cat 5 storm curving toward Japan. Strong model agreement the storm will graze Japan and then get pulled up toward Alaska. General idea here is the storm will get pulled up the Asian cost and possibly bomb back out in the Bering Straight. Details start to diverge here but overall thought is the storm gets caught up and just spins out for a week plus time. As this is going on the storm pumps up the western ridge and starts digging a trough south and east into the upper lakes. Not looking at the details yet but the overall idea holds some needing to watch. Nice easy to read tidbit I saw... . Atmospheric thermodynamics are quite amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Lock in our first flakes of the season...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Interesting as another record snowstorm coming to north south Dakota. 2 weeks after record snowstorm in Montana. Pattern of a wild winter setting up? Think this will be a volatile winter with lots of storms? Already seeing it out west probally getting there winter in sept oct into november. Seeing a flip in november to the east I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 9, 2019 Author Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Interesting as another record snowstorm coming to north south Dakota. 2 weeks after record snowstorm in Montana. Pattern of a wild winter setting up? Think this will be a volatile winter with lots of storms? Already seeing it out west probally getting there winter in sept oct into november. Seeing a flip in november to the east I hope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 Wasn’t there a typhoon that set off the downstream ripple prior to one of our prior early season events? Not saying that will happen here but I vaguely remember there being a very powerful typhoon with a similar track to hagibis that led to snow here... nm found it. The nov 14 event. https://buffalonews.com/2014/12/04/super-typhoon-western-pacific-shouldnt-cause-lake-effect-snow-time/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted October 9, 2019 Share Posted October 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: Wasn’t there a typhoon that set off the downstream ripple prior to one of our prior early season events? Not saying that will happen here but I vaguely remember there being a very powerful typhoon with a similar track to hagibis that led to snow here... nm found it. The nov 14 event. https://buffalonews.com/2014/12/04/super-typhoon-western-pacific-shouldnt-cause-lake-effect-snow-time/ Great find and great read. Thanks for posting. Would be awesome for something similar to happen in several weeks from now but just because there’s a storm in the WPAC does not mean it’s gonna happen again as this article states. One can hope though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 Crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Crazy Crazy is also what the GFS is showing STILL for the last 4 days of its run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 6 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Crazy is also what the GFS is showing STILL for the last 4 days of its run... Average first flakes are on the 25th for Buffalo and sooner for those in the Tug region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Denver was 82 degrees at 3pm yesterday and was 21 degrees by 6am this morning. A 61 degree drop in 15 hours. Thats intense! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Average first flakes are on the 25th for Buffalo and sooner for those in the Tug region. Looked back at my weather journal and just last year Rochester had a coating of snow on the 18th of October with several other days around that time having flakes in the air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Denver was 82 degrees at 3pm yesterday and was 21 degrees by 6am this morning. A 61 degree drop in 15 hours. Thats intense! That is insane to me. I don't think Buffalo has ever experienced anything like that. I'd probably instantly get a sinus infection. Summer to mid winter in 15 hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 Such a beautiful day out right now. Took the dog for a walk on lunch. Still shorts and tshirt weather. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 Sept oct are usually the best weather of the year. From a sensible standpoint. I am not sensible bring on winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 What I'm seeing in the Ensembles is a very transient pattern the next few weeks. I would say we end up around average for the month for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted October 10, 2019 Author Share Posted October 10, 2019 The average High/Low today is 61/44, by last day of the month its 53/38. Once it hits November lake effect snow season starts. Can't believe how quick it came upon us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 10, 2019 Share Posted October 10, 2019 That is insane to me. I don't think Buffalo has ever experienced anything like that. I'd probably instantly get a sinus infection. Summer to mid winter in 15 hours.We actually had one of our most extreme temp swings this past winter. Started the day at midnight at 59* by 8am temp was below freezing with lake effects bands forming. By night time we were in the teens. Erie was pretty much shut off at this point but Oswego area saw several hours of blizzard conditions from the lake effect setup. NWS actually classified this storm as a bomb as it dropped over 24mb in 24 hours. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted October 11, 2019 Share Posted October 11, 2019 Couldn’t ask for a nicer October day. Just perfect out between those two impressive storm systems.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Anyone keeping an eye on this potent Miller B Nor'Easter this week? Latest runs have the secondary low bombing to 971 just off the coast of Maine. Looks like a couple of very raw, rainy, and windy days on tap for us. Before it transitions we get a hefty thump of rain too. i think the highest peaks of New Hampshire and Vermont might get some significant snows. It's fun to have some active weather to track. We are officially into "interesting weather mode" for the next 7 months. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 Equilibrium levels up around 20k! There will be a brief break in the rain following the cold front. Later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night deeper wrap around moisture will arrive as the strong mid level closed low crosses the eastern Great Lakes and heads into New England. The wrap around moisture and forcing from the mid level trough will produce a few scattered showers Wednesday night. More importantly, deepening cold air will support growing lake induced instability. Flow may be sheared initially, but should align better from the WNW later Wednesday night as lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 15-20K feet. This will support a robust lake response east and southeast of the lakes, with rain showers becoming widespread. Deep moisture and lift extending up through the graupel growth zone may support some thunder as well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted October 14, 2019 Share Posted October 14, 2019 3 interesting storms on the horizon over the next 10 days and not a peep in here. Boooooooooo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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