CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Watches are all up 6-10 Eastern Lake Ontario region Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just a second earlier but you beat me to itSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Time to celebrate 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Through Tuesday morning, why dont they just include Tuesday night and early wed before the LE and LES comes to an end?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 29 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Pulled from Twitter. Their defense. The probability game is where I get suspicious...having been involved in developing inputs to probabilistic methods. Highly sensitive to assumptions and input data sets. I have wondered how NWS comes up with these estimates. Bottom line is you can't ever really be "wrong" using probabalistic forecasts. In this case I wonder how they are determining there is less than a 50% chance of Warning criteria snow at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 So wait, having a Watch means that we're definitely getting something but we just dont know what, as of yet, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Time to celebrate I did a hard 45 minute Peloton ride this morning - and would need two more after that bad boy! Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 6-10” of heavy wet snow. Maximums of 10-15” total in chat ridge and higher elevations away from Lake Ontario. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 A watch should be just what it says, a watch. They should have posted a watch on Thursday or Friday. Then late today they either upgrade or downgrade. The watch should just put the potential for significant snow on the general populations radar as far in advance as possible. We’ve all been eyeing this storm for days. It’s so stupid they wait until less than 24 for hours before they actually acknowledge the storm to the general public. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, Syrmax said: The probability game is where I get suspicious...having been involved in developing inputs to probabilistic methods. Highly sensitive to assumptions and input data sets. I have wondered how NWS comes up with these estimates. Bottom line is you can't ever really be "wrong" using probabalistic forecasts. In this case I wonder how they are determining there is less than a 50% chance of Warning criteria snow at this time. It's the watch definition. All forecasts by nature are subjective (using a combination of objective and subjective data)...so if the forecaster don't feel 50 percent confident for 7" in 12 h and/or 9" in 24 h it won't be issued. I do the same thing in my work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 6-10” of heavy wet snow. Maximums of 10-15” total in chat ridge and higher elevations away from Lake Ontario. I think the first 2 or 3 inches will be wet but once daylight ends on no day evening and the temps in the 20's will lend to a fluffier snow. Oh and the Euro is still the king!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: A watch should be just what it says, a watch. They should have posted a watch on Thursday or Friday. Then late today they either upgrade or downgrade. The watch should just put the potential for significant snow on the general populations radar as far in advance as possible. We’ve all been eyeing this storm for days. It’s so stupid they wait until less than 24 for hours before they actually acknowledge the storm to the general public. But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: I think the first 2 or 3 inches will be wet but once daylight ends on no day evening and the temps in the 20's will lend to a fluffier snow. Oh and the Euro is still the king!!! Euro has always been king, then ukie then gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 I agree the watch should not have been issued until today. But should have been the early morning after last nights runs showed consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. The general public isn’t reading HWO’s. They only take note when it scrolls on the tv or is mentioned on the radio with an official stamp from the NWS. I understand it’s a complicated topic. I still think it needs work. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: I agree the watch should not have been issued until today. But should have been the early morning after last nights runs showed consensus. Those early morning runs were still not definitely warning level...they were right around that 6 to 10 inches in 24 h range. Either way...its going to snow, enjoy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 BUF has some of the most stringent watch and warning definitions in the country. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Why can’t a watch be more general. It should be called a potential storm watch. Lol. It’s just a shame because they could look like heroes calling potential storms 5 days out. They should apply some sort of confidence to them. I dunno. Just musing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: It's the watch definition. All forecasts by nature are subjective (using a combination of objective and subjective data)...so if the forecaster don't feel 50 percent confident for 7" in 12 h and/or 9" in 24 h it won't be issued. I do the same thing in my work. Right. That's what i suspected. It's more a guesstimate based on knowledge level and experience. It's not algo based. I see some NWS products that are graphically displayed in probabilities (snowfall etc.). I've wondered how these probabilities are determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, DeltaT13 said: Why can’t a watch be more general. It should be called a potential storm watch. Lol. It’s just a shame because they could look like heroes calling potential storms 5 days out. They should apply some sort of confidence to them. I dunno. Just musing now. Well put a line or two in our synopsis for our clients if something big appears to be coming in the next 3 to 5 days. This storm never really looked big until later yesterday; I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Euro and icon first ones to catch it 4 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Right. That's what u suspected. It's more a guesstinate based on knowledge level and experience. It's not algo based. I see some NWS products that are graphically displayed in probabilities (snowfall etc.). I've wondered how these probabilities are determined. Yeah they might have more sref or eps based algos than I have but in the end I'm pretty sure the forecaster issues the watch based on that stuff and feel/experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Interesting to note that SREF plumes decreased (average) from the 3z-6z for kroc. Several members dragging it down. I’d suspect they are tainting or more likely dry slotted. just something to watch.. forecast looks pretty locked in for Buf-Roc-SYR (north anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 16 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: But that's not the definition of the watch. The long fused stuff multiple days in advance can be covered in those hazard weather outlooks. Just a day or two ago this didn't look warning level...it looked more of 3-6 inch type storm. it still does look like a 3-6" synoptic event and LE will win out, always does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 All this talk of dry-slotting makes no sense really? its not a wound up system with a dry tongue punching into the H700 lvl, lol, its a wave along an AF and I think there's gonna be a lot of frowning faces come tomorrow, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 This front comes through quicker than anticipated and say goodbye to all these totals and if it slows up, lots more rain. Its a very tricky situation for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Time to celebrate I’m having chest pains just looking at that picture. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 We're lucky this system doesn't get its act together till its past our latitude or else we'd be toast as this would be headed for Toronto, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Go Bills! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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