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Upstate/Eastern New York


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25 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

Here it is. Written by and shared on multiple forums under my normal “MesoBanding” name just before the big 2016 storm near NYC. I was living in NW NJ at the time before moving full time to Skaneateles village (we have a camp out on the lake). 

A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm

**snip**

LOOOOOL.  

That's some great stuff Steve.  Hits on virtually everything that happens.  Nice to read something original and scathing on the internet again.  Used to happen back in the day quite regularly before every.single.moron. discovered the joys of sh*tposting and reposting crap to remove all doubt as to their intelligence or maturity levels. ;)

Edit: i had forgotten about HECS, MECS etc., acronyms originally made popular by a certain hyperventilating met in the MA, now known as He Who Shall Not Be Named (HWSNBN).

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1 minute ago, Syrmax said:

Take Kuchera and multiply by 2/3.  Generally, a more accurate forecast that takes into account all sorts of things that usually subtract from ideal totals.  Usually.

It’s rare for a Synoptic storm to outdo 10:1.  Those kucheras are for the sick junkies. (whispers to Wolfie: keep them coming). 

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This event is no more than a nuisance SWFE that'll most likely turn into a WWA and drops 3-6" then that turns into a nice NW-WNW flow LE regime after storm exits into the GOM so all in all, a system we've seen hundreds and hundreds of times so enjoy.

KSYR 4.5 from synoptic
And 4 from LE
Total= 8.8"

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, 96blizz said:

I think things always tick SE at the end after mid range NW climbs. 
 

I’ve written a humorous article on this under the name MesoBanding on other forums. May need to break it out here with my local brethren. 

It depends on the system. A rapidly strengthening storm is more likely to go further NW. A system such as this one, slowly strengthening overrunning wave is more likely to go a tick SE. From my 20 or so years following the weather very closely I'd say 70/30 go farther NW vs SE in WNY.

Our weather is different then that in Eastern NY. Many times the primary ends up going further NW and we get into a mix, while a secondary develops off the coast and many times goes further SE. So it's tough to compare the 2 locations. Overall Rochester into Syracuse are positioned better for synoptic systems then we are in WNY. Our best pattern is a series of alberta clippers with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. I think WNY is the best location in the GL for that type of pattern.

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Rain and snow late will transition to all snow Monday morning.
Widespread snow will then continue for the rest of Monday and Monday
night. A moderate accumulation of snow is expected during this time
period.

Additional lake effect snow will then continue Tuesday through
Wednesday southeast of Lake Ontario. There remains some uncertainty
with respect to band placement and snowfall amounts. Localized light
to moderate accumulation is possible.

Unseasonably cold air will enter the region Tuesday through
Wednesday. Wind chills will be in the single digits at times.
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18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It depends on the system. A rapidly strengthening storm is more likely to go further NW. A system such as this one, slowly strengthening overrunning wave is more likely to go a tick SE. From my 20 or so years following the weather very closely I'd say 70/30 go farther NW vs SE in WNY.

Our weather is different then that in Eastern NY. Many times the primary ends up going further NW and we get into a mix, while a secondary develops off the coast and many times goes further SE. So it's tough to compare the 2 locations. Overall Rochester into Syracuse are positioned better for synoptic systems then we are in WNY. Our best pattern is a series of alberta clippers with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. I think WNY is the best location in the GL for that type of pattern.

I think this one has more of a likelihood to tick S&E than N&W...we have a strengthening wave riding NE along a boundry that is pushing S&E. The slp isn't going to be particularly deep so I'd think the progress /setup of the frontal boundary will be more important as we won't have a 'bombing' slp to contend with.

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WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
  inches possible.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel conditions will deteriorate during the
  afternoon Monday, with the heaviest snowfall rates and worst
  travel Monday night through early Tuesday morning.
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