wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Icon came in colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Here it is. Written by and shared on multiple forums under my normal “MesoBanding” name just before the big 2016 storm near NYC. I was living in NW NJ at the time before moving full time to Skaneateles village (we have a camp out on the lake). A Guidebook to the Phases of an East Coast Snowstorm **snip** LOOOOOL. That's some great stuff Steve. Hits on virtually everything that happens. Nice to read something original and scathing on the internet again. Used to happen back in the day quite regularly before every.single.moron. discovered the joys of sh*tposting and reposting crap to remove all doubt as to their intelligence or maturity levels. Edit: i had forgotten about HECS, MECS etc., acronyms originally made popular by a certain hyperventilating met in the MA, now known as He Who Shall Not Be Named (HWSNBN). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 No watches out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Now you just toying with me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Take Kuchera and multiply by 2/3. Generally, a more accurate forecast that takes into account all sorts of things that usually subtract from ideal totals. Usually. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Take Kuchera and multiply by 2/3. Generally, a more accurate forecast that takes into account all sorts of things that usually subtract from ideal totals. Usually. It’s rare for a Synoptic storm to outdo 10:1. Those kucheras are for the sick junkies. (whispers to Wolfie: keep them coming). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: No watches out yet? Guessing they will post watches after 12z runs are reviewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, rochesterdave said: It’s rare for a Synoptic storm to outdo 10:1. Those kucheras are for the sick junkies. (whispers to Wolfie: keep them coming). Kuchera is useful for seeing what an upper limit would look like if everything aligns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 This event is no more than a nuisance SWFE that'll most likely turn into a WWA and drops 3-6" then that turns into a nice NW-WNW flow LE regime after storm exits into the GOM so all in all, a system we've seen hundreds and hundreds of times so enjoy.KSYR 4.5 from synopticAnd 4 from LETotal= 8.8" Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 LE after system has passed will be the most exciting part of the event as usual!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 No need for kuchera with the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 1 hour ago, 96blizz said: I think things always tick SE at the end after mid range NW climbs. I’ve written a humorous article on this under the name MesoBanding on other forums. May need to break it out here with my local brethren. It depends on the system. A rapidly strengthening storm is more likely to go further NW. A system such as this one, slowly strengthening overrunning wave is more likely to go a tick SE. From my 20 or so years following the weather very closely I'd say 70/30 go farther NW vs SE in WNY. Our weather is different then that in Eastern NY. Many times the primary ends up going further NW and we get into a mix, while a secondary develops off the coast and many times goes further SE. So it's tough to compare the 2 locations. Overall Rochester into Syracuse are positioned better for synoptic systems then we are in WNY. Our best pattern is a series of alberta clippers with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. I think WNY is the best location in the GL for that type of pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Rain and snow late will transition to all snow Monday morning. Widespread snow will then continue for the rest of Monday and Monday night. A moderate accumulation of snow is expected during this time period. Additional lake effect snow will then continue Tuesday through Wednesday southeast of Lake Ontario. There remains some uncertainty with respect to band placement and snowfall amounts. Localized light to moderate accumulation is possible. Unseasonably cold air will enter the region Tuesday through Wednesday. Wind chills will be in the single digits at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Buffalo sleeping again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 10, 2019 Author Share Posted November 10, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: Buffalo sleeping again They will issue watches at 4 pm update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It depends on the system. A rapidly strengthening storm is more likely to go further NW. A system such as this one, slowly strengthening overrunning wave is more likely to go a tick SE. From my 20 or so years following the weather very closely I'd say 70/30 go farther NW vs SE in WNY. Our weather is different then that in Eastern NY. Many times the primary ends up going further NW and we get into a mix, while a secondary develops off the coast and many times goes further SE. So it's tough to compare the 2 locations. Overall Rochester into Syracuse are positioned better for synoptic systems then we are in WNY. Our best pattern is a series of alberta clippers with lake enhancement in front and LES behind. I think WNY is the best location in the GL for that type of pattern. I think this one has more of a likelihood to tick S&E than N&W...we have a strengthening wave riding NE along a boundry that is pushing S&E. The slp isn't going to be particularly deep so I'd think the progress /setup of the frontal boundary will be more important as we won't have a 'bombing' slp to contend with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 As of right now the P&C forecast shows 1"-3" Monday, 3"-5" Monday night and 60% chance of snow showers Tuesday/Tuesday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: They will issue watches at 4 pm update They shoulda done it. They are being hardheaded because the forecast didn’t go as they planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 As of right now the P&C forecast shows 1"-3" Monday, 3"-5" Monday night and 60% chance of snow showers Tuesday/Tuesday night..SameSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 They shoulda done it. They are being hardheaded because the forecast didn’t go as they planned. It never does or very rarely Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Pulled from Twitter. Their defense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 My P+C is 1-3 and 4-8. WSW territory. What ever. First storm. You’d think they’d be jumping the gun if anything. IDK. They are usually pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 They have gone down hill past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Looks good.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: They shoulda done it. They are being hardheaded because the forecast didn’t go as they planned. Hundreds will die! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Oneida county is the only county that's in the watch, RLMAO Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 Watch just issued.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 10, 2019 Share Posted November 10, 2019 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches possible. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...Travel conditions will deteriorate during the afternoon Monday, with the heaviest snowfall rates and worst travel Monday night through early Tuesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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