tim123 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Kuchera snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxNoob Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Could be wrong/thinking like a weenie but hasn’t the Euro had a west bias the past couple years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Theres all sorts of things wrong with these models. Most of them keep the shoreline void of any snow, like the Lake is gonna have any say with this air mass, NOT, so I wouldn't be worrying so much about precip maps and totals especially in enhancement areas like mine and whatnot because their most likely wrong, I hope, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 No. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If we have to have an outlier I'm glad it's the euro lol All day bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Kuchera snow map?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 For WNY folks that's the track you wanna see on the models this far out, i think we might be in for our first WSW event.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is still farther west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 It's not impossible to think some of these models overcorrected.. Euro did yesterday too and corrected/in correct back west today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 This does not include today's euro yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro showing widespread 5 to 10 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 34 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: For WNY folks that's the track you wanna see on the models this far out, i think we might be in for our first WSW event.. Hey Ayuud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, tim123 said: Euro showing widespread 5 to 10 inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 28 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This does not include today's euro yet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well it may take us out of the deformation zone but I'm still thinking 4 to 7 due to higher snow ratios 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NWS buf AFD at 2:30 states lower qpf and the more easterly track of the LP as to now making a warning criteria event less likely...what I don't agree with is they, and many others, always have issues with enhancement from Lake Ontario with every NE to northerly wind. In a NE direction Niagara co and the Niagara peninsula of Ontario would be the bullseye not Monroe and Orleans as they suggest. Otherwise looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM holding serve and then some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I am thinking 4 to 6 inch event for the Syracuse area...and then a couple more with lake effect afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: NWS buf AFD at 2:30 states lower qpf and the more easterly track of the LP as to now making a warning criteria event less likely...what I don't agree with is they, and many others, always have issues with enhancement from Lake Ontario with every NE to northerly wind. In a NE direction Niagara co and the Niagara peninsula of Ontario would be the bullseye not Monroe and Orleans as they suggest. Otherwise looks about right. A northeast wind will enhance Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe just about the same. In fact the NE fetch is usually ideal for Monroe county as the shoreline is oriented somewhat NW to SE so you end up with strong frictional convergence as the winds are nearly perpendicular to shoreline. Additionally the NE fetch in Monroe county extends all the way up to Alexandria bay which gives the longest fetch during NE enhancement events. Im still holding out hope for a 4-7 type storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 NAM 18z coming in a step in the right direction. Big changes and increases for CNY. Still showing trouble along the lake shores. Agree that Monroe does well with a NE but I’m thinking we have temperature troubles within 10 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 18z 3K even better than 12K and still snowing for many of us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just need another 50 miles on the Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: A northeast wind will enhance Niagara, Orleans, and Monroe just about the same. In fact the NE fetch is usually ideal for Monroe county as the shoreline is oriented somewhat NW to SE so you end up with strong frictional convergence as the winds are nearly perpendicular to shoreline. Additionally the NE fetch in Monroe county extends all the way up to Alexandria bay which gives the longest fetch during NE enhancement events. Im still holding out hope for a 4-7 type storm. Rochester city proper ne wind is max fetch of about 80 to 85 miles. Max fetch in monroe county is webster at about 100 miles on a west north west wind. Nw wind max fetch for roc is about 55 60 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 High end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro ftw? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 The RGEM is a pretty huge hit. Basically snows across entire forum for over 24 hours straight. That's without lake enhancement. It's a good overrunning track with lots of cold air. Someone could hit a foot across Chautauqua ridge pretty easily by weds morning. Even places south of the lake Ontario at higher elevations could hit double digits. I'm optimistic, if the changeover occurs earlier then expected we would get higher totals. I dont expect very high totals here due to being closer to a very warm lake erie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Looked at the first 25 individual members of the ECM ens , almost all look like the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Control precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now