wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I've had several advisories for forecast of 4"-8"/5"-10" since moving here.. Doubt they go warning with this one.. Probably start as a watch and downgrade to an advisory.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m surprised by your optimism. But it makes me hopeful. Look it's a wobble...lets see what the 12z euro and GFS says before jumping off into the pit of misery... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: I've had several advisories for forecast of 4"-8"/5"-10" since moving here.. Doubt they go warning with this one.. Probably start as a watch and downgrade to an advisory.. And I agree it is an advisory event as well but this way the NWS can't get caught with their pants down...too many options here so feel free to get creative... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Here is the ukmet precp..Throws us a bone with a little enhancement/effect.. Congrats Me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 Top analogs for that time period http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2019110900&map=thbCOOP72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 9" yesterday just south of Hastings and 2" in Fulton, goes to show how unpredictable multi band NW flows are.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Top analogs for that time period http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=EC&fhr=F096&rundt=2019110900&map=thbCOOP72 Thanks. These demonstrate that it’s an enhanced event (if anything). Hey, those can be fun! Areas just away from the lakes will do best as the water will keep the shorelines warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 I would go WWA for most places with WSW in Chautauqua ridge and up slope areas around tug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 My pond already starting to freeze over.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Just in case I wanna take a polar plunge.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Here is the 12z gfs..Most of this falls in a 12 hr period which is a good thing lol I don't wanna measure an inch every 6 hours.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Hey, all! I got a couple inches of snow here in northern Onondaga county over the past couple days. With this upcoming system, what is with the snow hole over Oswego county on many of the models? Downslope? Warmer temps off lake? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 51 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Just in case I wanna take a polar plunge.. I plan to have a pond someday. If I were you I'd be having ice hockey parties every weekend once that thing freezes. Let me know if you ever do it, ill be over! My best memories as a kid was learning how to ice skate on a pond with my dad. Started skating at 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 U mean like this? Every model does it one way or another..This was an issue last year too lol Not sure how much it verified though.. Maybe downsloping from the tug or Adirondacks? Who knows..lol We are only allowed lake effect here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Gfs same timeframe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 I wonder if it's redevelopment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 U can see on the Nam some of the heavier stuff stops just before getting here, then the low jumps south and then NE off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Canadian is the best model at showing enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 9, 2019 Author Share Posted November 9, 2019 I’ll be doing this in the Adirondacks in February this year with some friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Ukmet.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro is still farther west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Same for the jma.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro actually came in much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro is so far west, parts of CNY are still mixing into Monday evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 This is definitely not a Tug Hill set up so Carol Will not be the Jackpot this time around as the Dacks are gonna put a stop to that real quick! We do good in these situations so we'll see what happens Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro is so far west, parts of CNY are still mixing into Monday evening..Look at the Euro over the Dacks, a big minima or just early in the event.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Euro obviously doesn't know how to show enhancement , keeps everything over the lake for the most part..I did like seeing winds start to back towards the west lol I'm sure exact track will have something to do with that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 GEFS is SE. Big differences in models. Euro is outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 Total precipitation top, total snow bottom.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 9, 2019 Share Posted November 9, 2019 If we have to have an outlier I'm glad it's the euro lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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