Upstate/Eastern New York

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That look is actually plausible. An apps runner that switches to a coastal...eouldnt crush us but the euro accums would be about right.

[BuffaloWeather]

I've never seen a low pressure do what the Icon shows, we should lock it in before it changes. 

[96blizz]

11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've never seen a low pressure do what the Icon shows, we should lock it in before it changes. 

It’s like the “Blizzicane” but further north. Epic lake effect with that retrograding look this time of year. Of course this is the icon!
 

good news is GFS, GEFS, Euro and EPS all favor inland snows in this afternoons runs. Let’s see how it changes again overnight and every day going forward!

[CNY-LES FREAK]

It’s like the “Blizzicane” but further north. Epic lake effect with that retrograding look this time of year. Of course this is the icon!
 
good news is GFS, GEFS, Euro and EPS all favor inland snows in this afternoons runs. Let’s see how it changes again overnight and every day going forward!

It is Wed, so a 4 day prognosis isn't out of the realm of possibility, No? I gotta be honest, I haven't even started looking at models yet, lol, just been listening to you guys but I think it's time I start to actually check guidance a bit more.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

That look is actually plausible. An apps runner that switches to a coastal...eouldnt crush us but the euro accums would be about right.

Yeah, but likely an anafront-type setup with a couple of LP waves moving along it, with the final wave blowing up...That's happened before and dropped 3-9" amounts with each wave. Adds up quickly.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

What's up with all these dry arctic highs in mid November in the long range? We need some moisture to get good LES. We got about 11 weeks from today before the lake freezes. 

Yeah that’s my let down with what they are advertising. We’ve gone how many weeks with system after system pulling up through the lakes with rain, wind, lake effect rain now we are going to quick transition into possible record cold temperatures and the systems just vanish. Sure there are some fronts swinging through that will likely get everyone at least some snow but what a waste this early in the year to have the cold sink down to us but have nothing there to set the lake effect off. Geez next week looking at the GFS we would have 850s heading toward -20 over lakes that will still be at roughly 10 just sitting idle under a dome of high pressure.


.

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 

Yeah that’s my let down with what they are advertising. We’ve gone how many weeks with system after system pulling up through the lakes with rain, wind, lake effect rain now we are going to quick transition into possible record cold temperatures and the systems just vanish. Sure there are some fronts swinging through that will likely get everyone at least some snow but what a waste this early in the year to have the cold sink down to us but have nothing there to set the lake effect off. Geez next week looking at the GFS we would have 850s heading toward -20 over lakes that will still be at roughly 10 just sitting idle under a dome of high pressure.


.

Exactly. We had epic potential and we will likely get a few inches the next 2 weeks.

[wolfie09]

It`s all downhill from there however, as another cold front moves
through Sunday night.  While confidence remains high for well below
normal temperatures, the overall synoptic pattern remains in
question.  Classic single band lake responses haven`t looked too
promising for several runs with variable low level flow, or one with
a predominant northerly component, but there are some concerns about
a stalled boundary somewhere near or over the east coast which could
impact parts of WNY or CNY.  Timing for such an event appears to
centered on Tuesday, but again confidence is fairly low on the
overall surface pattern. Will continue to forecast chance for snow
showers into next week.

[Syrmax]

4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

I think the icon had too much sauerkraut for dinner...

[BuffaloWeather]

Probably the most accurate winter forecast poster on this forum.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

[rochesterdave]

40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Probably the most accurate winter forecast poster on this forum.

http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

So a warm winter for the NE? Ehhh. I don’t put much faith in these long term forecasts- especially when I can’t understand them. Lol. Hope he’s wrong...

[BuffaloWeather]

27 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

So a warm winter for the NE? Ehhh. I don’t put much faith in these long term forecasts- especially when I can’t understand them. Lol. Hope he’s wrong...

We've had back to back above average snowfall years. We're definitely due for a downer. His accuracy is 80% since 2006, it's impressive.

[wolfie09]

Gfs looking better for Monday night/Tuesday..

[wolfie09]

[Thinksnow18]

3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

The 00z Euro has the same flush hit. And this type of snow would be powdery so those accums could be higher due to higher snow ratios. Something indeed to watch.

[lakeeffectkid383]

33 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

The 00z Euro has the same flush hit. And this type of snow would be powdery so those accums could be higher due to higher snow ratios. Something indeed to watch.

Euro with ratios, granted 2-3" of this is from today's snow. Still about a foot with ratios, not that I buy ratios that high this early in the season but none the less impressive to see. 

[Thinksnow18]

4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Euro with ratios, granted 2-3" of this is from today's snow. Still about a foot with ratios, not that I buy ratios that high this early in the season but none the less impressive to see. 

I buy them for one reason...the cold that will impact us early next week will be mid January cold. I also believe enhancement from Lake Ontario will also bump up these totals. I like the consistency as of now between models so the threat seems to be increasing only 4 days out now.

[lakeeffectkid383]

1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I buy them for one reason...the cold that will impact us early next week will be mid January cold. I also believe enhancement from Lake Ontario will also bump up these totals. I like the consistency as of now between models so the threat seems to be increasing only 4 days out now.

I'd still proceed with caution, today's event 4 days ago looked like it would be a 3-6" snowfall consistently on all models only to fall apart quickly as we moved inside 2-3 days. Would be awesome to experience a widespread snowfall with midwinter cold and high ratios so early in the season but I'll wait until Sunday's models before feeling confident as there's not much margin for error. If this thing shifts 100 miles either way we could be talking an inch or two. 

[Thinksnow18]

6 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

I'd still proceed with caution, today's event 4 days ago looked like it would be a 3-6" snowfall consistently on all models only to fall apart quickly as we moved inside 2-3 days. Would be awesome to experience a widespread snowfall with midwinter cold and high ratios so early in the season but I'll wait until Sunday's models before feeling confident as there's not much margin for error. If this thing shifts 100 miles either way we could be talking an inch or two. 

Fair point...but todays system was a little more in doubt as the models were all over the place for to days event...however that will be a powerful Arctic front with a lot if energy and several impulses moving along it...i just read the Cleveland AFD and they are much more bullish than our BUF add which literally mentions a small blurb. 

[wolfie09]

Ukmet just like the icon is pretty far inland..

[wolfie09]

Ukmet total precipitation..

 

[Thinksnow18]

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Ukmet total precipitation..

 

Like I said there is pretty out of character uniformity right now on all the major models. 

[wolfie09]

Some nice streamers being shown by the hrrr on a nw Flow..

Check out that donut holes lol 

Every model has it, just in different locations. 

[rochesterdave]

3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Some nice streamers being shown by the hrrr on a nw Flow..

Check out that donut holes lol 

Every model has it, just in different locations. 

Picking up on the finger lakes lake effect. Should be a good flow for them. Look out Ithaca!

[96blizz]

21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Some nice streamers being shown by the hrrr on a nw Flow..

Check out that donut holes lol 

Every model has it, just in different locations. 

Man that’s a bullseye here in Skaneateles. The NW flow angle could launch some pretty serious early season squalls. Getting excited to see snow again soon!!

[wolfie09]

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Finally snowing in west falls.

[wolfie09]

All those analog years were monster seasons in C/N Oswego county, 200"+..

95-96 was a record year in Fulton with nearly 280"..

[BuffaloWeather]

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

All those analog years were monster seasons in C/N Oswego county, 200"+..

95-96 was a record year in Fulton with nearly 280"..

Those analogs look like a strictly Lake effect driven year in a predominant W/NW flow. Buffalo is around 100" in all of those years. I still favor a 5-10% above snowfall winter with around normal temps. It's more difficult to predict lake effect zones then it is synoptic driven locations. One large LES event can impact the entire years totals. If you get the cold, you usually get snow around here. That is not the case for locations along the east coast. 

2003-2004- 100.9"

2007-2008- 103.8"

2008-2009- 100.2"

[Thinksnow18]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those analogs look like a strictly Lake effect driven year in a predominant W/NW flow. Buffalo is around 100" in all of those years. I still favor a 5-10% above snowfall winter with around normal temps. It's more difficult to predict lake effect zones then it is synoptic driven locations. One large LES event can impact the entire years totals. If you get the cold, you usually get snow around here. That is not the case for locations along the east coast. 

2003-2004- 100.9"

2007-2008- 103.8"

2008-2009- 100.2"

To piggy back on what you're saying looks to be pretty much on target with higher synoptic totals due to the storm track above. This storm we *might* be getting early next week could be the predominant storm track for the winter.