PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: NAM 12k brings mix into SYR. I think this could hold down accumulations there and certainly at BGM if a few inches lost on front end. I know it counts some as sleet but wow! Smoked. Where are the buffalo warnings??? At least the eastern part of the area. To let the public know big snow is a possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I feel like a lot of the action is now on the back end from the energy between the primary and the redeveloping coastal. A regular coastal storm would bring clear skies to Syracuse! Lol 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: NAM 12k brings mix into SYR. I think this could hold down accumulations there and certainly at BGM if a few inches lost on front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Maybe the soundings show something different but that's not even close to a mix..Theres no mixing on any sounding for Syracuse and anywhere in Oswego county so perhaps their looking at something completely different than I am.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I'm starting to think the euro was to cold lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 The Euro is known for its biased cold with Winter Events so if anyone bbn is gonna mix, itll be the Syracuse area and points West of them. I May mix for a time, actually I'm expecting it but I doubt you do Wolfie, so that's one thing you dont have to sweat, I think, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This is a long duration event which is holding warnings back.. Even though I think the area can pick up 9" in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This certainly is a fascinating storm system. Secondary development and low transfers are alway finicky for upstate. It seems to be trending towards more of a low transfer and not a jump, which favors us in regards to moisture and dynamics but also introduces more thermal profile issues. I love seeing the low deepen and retrograde a bit as the secondary takes over. I feel like I could get 1 inch or I could 9 inches right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Like I said be before, I'll be happy with a 6-8" event with decent snow growth, which I think is going to be quite efficient for a time tomorrow night as enhancement kicks in so we'll see but Good Luck to all and I hope everyone gets a decent event!!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Like I said be before, I'll be happy with a 6-8" event with decent snow growth, which I think is going to be quite efficient for a time tomorrow night as enhancement kicks in so we'll see but Good Luck to all and I hope everyone gets a decent event!! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk This is not my system unfortunately... I need an inland runner like we got in early November lol. I cashed in with a foot during that one. Can’t win them all. Gonna hope for a quick front end 1-2” before the secondary moisture stays too far south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 We've had 2 decent sized snow events so far this yr already to track and today is the first day of meteorological Winter! I'd say we're ahead of the game but unfortunately the first was a dud for us further East but Other places crushed and there were surprises as I expect there to be with this event.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Gotta say, 00Z NAM looks fishy but mostly in dealing with the stalled low SE of New England. It could be right but looks like it loses the plot with slp and precip depiction/evolution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: We've had 2 decent sized snow events so far this yr already to track and today is the first day of meteorological Winter! I'd say we're ahead of the game but unfortunately the first was a dud for us further East but Other places crushed and there were surprises as I expect there to be with this event. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 12 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Gotta say, 00Z NAM looks fishy but mostly in dealing with the stalled low SE of New England. It could be right but looks like it loses the plot with slp and precip depiction/evolution. Yeh it’s confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Icon is like 6" in 3 hours tomorrow afternoon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 SNE will not like 0Z ICON run, at least thru about 60H. Handles slp somewhat similar to NAM thru about 60 hrs. Machts nichts for us but still seems to rely on lumpy distributions of qpf. Maybe its elevation effects in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Rgem still in the colder/south camp..I expect the Ggem and hrdps to follow suit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Big hit on rgem. It collapses the column of warm air aloft and dumps 2 in a hour rates. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 This is what will make it or break it for Rochester, we will know who's right by tomorrow afternoon lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 If it doesn't we still get 6 inches with a 2 inches of sleet on bottom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Don’t know how much of this is sleet but gfs looks good from Rochester through Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Pivotal usually doesn't include sleet, just got into range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Gfs is still the only model that mixes here on the front end, granted it came in a little colder.. Stealing digital snow from me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Probably overdone. I tried looking for evidence of sleet by looking at total snow depth change, and I think there's a few inches taken off for mix in CNY, WNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I'll take the 2.1" of qpf for 1,000 Alex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Well no last minute surprises like the HRRR with the last event, and in the end, it was ultimately right, lol, and it screwed everyone so let's hope we dont see something like that occur but I just dont seeing this time.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I probably see more snow in 3 hours on the icon and Nam then the entire event on the Canadian lol Like I said, followed the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Weenies rejoice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Well no last minute surprises like the HRRR with the last event, and in the end, it was ultimately right, lol, and it screwed everyone so let's hope we dont see something like that occur but I just dont seeing this time. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I think only the GFS is showing some indication of mix with the front end here and that might be why it shows 20" of accum IMBY vs 14" of snow depth increase for the same period (out thru 60 hrs). Regardless, it looks like 4-6" on front end and at least that much for part 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 All snow in Rochester on canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Weenies rejoice Looks like somethings on fire down in Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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