tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Actually most 12z guidance was opposite of what they said. Only one was gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 18z nam for the over running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 See starting to catch on to more snow roc east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Man just give us a decent 8-10" event and I'll be happy. I don't need 18-24" forecasted to be assured that its gonna snow. We all know its gonna snow so we'll see what happens the next 24hrs and beyond.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, tim123 said: Rpm. Not to familiar with this model. But falls online with other short range guidence It has a green blob of 16-20" over me and Freak. Clearly, this is the model of choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Rpm!!!!! Lol I think the weather channel uses that model or did at one time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Rpm!!!!! Lol I think the weather channel uses that model or did at one time.. I think it’s still in use by some local broadcast mets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro over 6 inch probs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 KBUF doesn't seem impressed with the storm in their AFD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, vortmax said: KBUF doesn't seem impressed with the storm in their AFD. KBUF forecast looking like U Michigan today, dUMb. Go Bucks! Buwahaaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nam is that a American developed product Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Some improvements on the Nam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Sref plumes up to a mean of 7.5. From 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 BGM going big...Winter Storm Warnings for whole viewing area (except Steuben) 9 to 15 inches for Syracuse metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 20 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam is that a American developed product Yeah. It’s the North American Model. Old but fun. Like some of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM going big...Winter Storm Warnings for whole viewing area (except Steuben) 9 to 15 inches for Syracuse metro Freak will enjoy his Advisory and like it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 On an initial SW flow, lake effect snow is expected to begin near Buffalo/Watertown Tuesday night. It likely will not be until early Wednesday that lake parameters maximize...with Lake Induced EQL rising to near 7-9K feet, and moisture increasing in a lowering snow dentritic growth zone that the bands of snow will become moderate. By this time, with the upper level shortwave crossing our region, expect the bands of snow to be now east of the Lakes, across the Southtowns/Boston Hills and the Tug Hill region. Here on Wednesday we will increase PoPs to likely for lake effect snow. Winds will continue to veer Wednesday night as the upper level trough crosses into New England. By Wednesday night expect the lake snows to be now dropping down towards Ski County/Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario and SE of Lake Ontario for bands of snow coming over Lake Ontario. Snow amounts Wednesday night will depend upon upstream connections...which are still uncertain at this point in time with the shifting winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 To warm here for snow but not the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 700 level pretty warm for initial slug. Need this -4 or so. So we rely solely on the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gfs does redeem itself with the coastal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I guess I'm gonna have to drive 4 miles to my South to the border to see Warning amounts, lol, I guess no collaboration between offices this time for KBUF cause they are all alone with thwirnputrid ants, lol, unreal!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gfs does redeem itself with the coastal.. Almost 30" in Scranton PA, I cant see that happening but perhaps half that especially up on I380 cause they're up near 1700', Camelback area if PA Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I guess I'm gonna have to drive 4 miles to my South to the border to see Warning amounts, lol, I guess no collaboration between offices this time for KBUF cause they are all alone with thwirnputrid ants, lol, unreal! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You're in the eastern lake Ontario area for KBUF. Its flyover country for them. They figure it snows all the time there so what's the big deal? You can come down here to enjoy an actual winter storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 They should have a advisory for 4 to 8 inches for Niagara frontier and a warning for 6 to 12 for monroe wayne ontario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gfs Ensemble mean has gone up alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Some really big hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Gefs have been huge hit for CNY all week.. That's why I'm not surprised the OP went that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Dynamic system alot of spin in atmosphere. Tornadoes in iowa 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Gefs have been huge hit for CNY all week.. That's why I'm surprised the OP went that way lol This is such a dynamic low that it will come down to “nowcasting” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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