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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Ukie is a Wow! event for CNY.  0Z GEM ticked NW with precip shield also.  Hope this is all still looking like this in 24 hrs.  I kind of dont want to look at 12Z runs tomorrow as it can only get worse.  No way I'm spending time with the off hour runs. Too much noise.

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Big jumps NW today. Pretty crazy stuff. And we’re still in that window where the big ones keep stepping NW until finally correcting SE in the final 24 hrs. 
Im holding tight to the idea that this is an I-81 and East storm, but at some point ya gotta realize your boat is full of holes and jump ship. 

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BUF AFD - Also kept advisory headlines, but did break out Monroe, Wayne, and Ontario counties since precipitation will start later here and will be primarily snow. It`s also possible this advisory may need to be extended depending on the Monday portion of the storm.

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gefs been all over this one.

0BAD2170-08A0-47E3-B3FD-D459B1E46B41.thumb.png.61427ca5603ee72de4d91e7c0eccf3bf.png

That right there is a classic snowfall distribution for many/most Northeast snowstorms from my past experience.  The coastal I-95 plain gets little to nothing and heaviest snows bury the deep interior, not places like Hartford or White Plains. Let's hope a reversion to mean starts to occur going forward.

I noticed JB still trying to claim Euro ens support for his 3-6" forecast for NYC, (which was made weeks/months ago of course).  He'd be correct if he is including Orange & Rockland counties in his broad brush city forecast, which helps to create a fog of verification.

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KBGMs snowmaps continuing to be quite conservative.  Of course, their forecast was smoked during the season's first storm so I can't say I blame them.  Basically they have 4-8" for Syracuse area with only a 10% probability of higher.  (BTW, lose the probability maps, or at least the 10 & 90% values...its bullsh*t handwaving, and statistical junk science, to put a probability value on such forecasts).

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