wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Euro is a light-moderate event with the primary low, big coastal snow storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro is a light-moderate event with the primary low, big coastal snow storm.. NYC weenies just got a boost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Doubt it works out like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I just dont see all this blocking preventing this from heading straight into the Upper Great Lakes, at least on the guidance I looked at. I haven't looked at the NAO so I dont know what phase it's in but I'd bet it's in a transition mode either from Neg-->Pos or the other way around. Either way, my early call on this is that the models will catch on and start to trend North with Primary and Secondary which, in this case, can form on the Lee side of the Apps and it heads NNE from there. The current HP set-up over CA isn't conducive for a large EC snow event but I can be very wrong. Another thing I noticed the cold air, as it makes it's way across across the US erodes and doesn't get any colder than -10C at H850. Moisture is plentiful both from the Atlantic and the Gulf opens as well so there's no issue there but to me there are many other Cons vs Pros for us but this is expected for our area. I can actually see the Primary getting up into the UP and the secondary popping somewhere just South and East of the Catskills and heads NE which would affect the same areas that just got affected except KROC which will see perhaps a 1/10 of what they saw. The Cuse is in the same boat. I dont like the set up at all. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 28, 2019 Author Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy thanksgiving all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Happy Thanksgiving to all as well! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Look at the snow depth in the upper UP, lol, its Thanksgiving and they have close to 40", lol, thats just nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I was really starting to quit on the storm for northern NY. The IcOn sucked me back in. Big weenie moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 16 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I just dont see all this blocking preventing this from heading straight into the Upper Great Lakes, at least on the guidance I looked at. I haven't looked at the NAO so I dont know what phase it's in but I'd bet it's in a transition mode either from Neg-->Pos or the other way around. Either way, my early call on this is that the models will catch on and start to trend North with Primary and Secondary which, in this case, can form on the Lee side of the Apps and it heads NNE from there. The current HP set-up over CA isn't conducive for a large EC snow event but I can be very wrong. Another thing I noticed the cold air, as it makes it's way across across the US erodes and doesn't get any colder than -10C at H850. Moisture is plentiful both from the Atlantic and the Gulf opens as well so there's no issue there but to me there are many other Cons vs Pros for us but this is expected for our area. I can actually see the Primary getting up into the UP and the secondary popping somewhere just South and East of the Catskills and heads NE which would affect the same areas that just got affected except KROC which will see perhaps a 1/10 of what they saw. The Cuse is in the same boat. I dont like the set up at all. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The ICON agrees with touyou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 GfS clearly putting baroclinic zone too far north and east of center vs ICON same time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gfs is way better.. And it's still to warm with the primary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Anyone have eps mean from 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gefs have been inland all along, we're still in the game lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs have been inland all along, we're still in the game lol I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 18z Canadian out to 84.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I can recall I-81 as the western cutoff zone for big accumulations for lots of storms in the 90’s. This could be one of those. I might have to eat my words (“nobody in BUF forecast zone sees 4”+). Clearly Lewis and Oswego counties still in the game. The only one I remember, like this, that gave Roc big snow, occurred in 92. Dropped 18” in the eastern Rochester suburbs and wasn’t really forecast. It’s the only one that I can recall. Others? Gotta be more, WNY shows up in the 20-30% on the analogues for 4”.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 An slowly weakening area of low pressure located somewhere near the state of Iowa to start the period will move east, then east- southeast to somewhere near Ohio by late Sunday evening. At the same time, an area of high pressure centered just south of James Bay will remain pretty much stationary through this same time frame. This will help to ensure the track of the low remains south and west of NYS, keeping us on the `cool` side of the system. The associated warm/occluded front will approach form the southwest later Saturday night. This will bring the chance for snow showers into western NY after midnight, with the main area of precip expanding northeastward to the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region by Sunday morning. At this point it appears the surface warm front will not make it further north than Ohio/Pennsylvania, and that the occluded portion of the boundary extending east from the low will be what pushes into our region on Sunday. This also means any true warmer air will never make it into western and north central NY. That said, it will get warm enough aloft across western NY, possibly as far east as the Finger Lakes for a changeover from snow, to sleet/freezing rain and plain rain for some areas across the Niagara Frontier and western Southern Tier. Areas northeast of the Finger Lakes may keep snow as the primary p-type through the event, with the best bet for all snow remaining across the north country. The 12Z ECMWF/GEM remain in very good agreement on the evolution of this scenario, with both also trending a bit colder overall. The 12Z NAM is also in play now through early Sunday evening and is also very similar to the ECMWF/GEM. The outlier remains the GFS which tries to bring the nose of the warm air aloft to far northeast. With all this in mind, have trended the `all snow` line a bit further southwest, with the threat for any frozen or freezing precip confined to the western Finger Lakes and points west/southwest. Areas across far western NY and the western Southern Tier have the best chance for seeing a changeover to just plain rain from later Sunday morning through the afternoon. Freezing rain amounts do not appear to be that much at this time, but only takes a light glaze to create big travel problems. As for snow amounts, there will be the possibility for a few inches of accumulation for Monroe County and points east of the Genesee Valley and south of Lake Ontario during the first half of Sunday, with this potential then shifting northeast across the Eastern Lake Ontario region during the afternoon. This situation will be closely monitored over the next couple of days. Any shift in the track or strength of the low could shift this "zone of uncertainty" in either direction, so STAY TUNED. Heading into Sunday night, weakening diffuse low pressure just to our southwest will give way to a secondary area of low pressure somewhere near the Delmarva or Jersey coast. This low will then strengthen as it moves northeast just off the New England coastline. The contribution of moisture from the coastal system and parent upper low will keep snow, or a mix of rain and snow showers going through Sunday night depending on your location, with the threat of frozen/freezing precip no longer present as colder wraps in on the back side of the low removing the warm nose aloft. Colder air will deepen further on Monday, with just about all areas going over to all snow. Air aloft will become cold enough for lake enhanced/effect snow showers, mainly south of the Lakes on a cold northerly upslope flow. Any leftover snow showers will taper off Monday night as the low moves further away and drier air filters across the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18z Canadian out to 84.. How far does that go out to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Only 84 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 So 20 mm is what 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 GFS just keeps reloading the storm train. Big hit after big hit for parts of NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 18z eps bumped north a bit with a mean of 8" in Syracuse and 7" in Fulton.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Tight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Buffalo Rochester? 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18z eps bumped north a bit with a mean of 8" in Syracuse and 7" in Fulton.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5" Rochester, 2 1/2" Buffalo.. The heaviest snow is just southeast of ksyr (10+) due to the coastal.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 You would think by now these models would be better. Just when they all start to converge on an idea, the 00Z runs start coming in with a bunch of junk all over the place again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Farther north with the Primary is the rule. Looks very similar to the crapfest of earlier November. Pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Great example of how kuchera can work against ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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