wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Gefs look much different than OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: The German ICON is in its own world, as usual and most guidance are in their own respective worlds so follow the most superior guidance our there, The Euro until other models follow suit cause they will start to unless its solution is wrong and the GFS sees a totally different scenario so lets watch. I won't even look at the ICON, CANADIAN and a Especially the RGEM, horrific tools to predict our weather. It's however, better than most guidance with cold dense low lvl arctic air intrusions but that's about it! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I like the RGEM for lake effect events, but its useless for synoptic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 The last storm your precious Euro consistently missed the taint. Just saying. It did not, its last run before the start of the event, it had most moisture tumour South and East sonI dont kkow what ur looking at bro! Sont even try to discredit the beat guidance out there for the last 15yrs still dominates all other guidance and the United states should be ashamed!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 20 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The good ole GFS, lol, but its not that bad of a tool which is what all of this guidance is, are tools with the Euro being the Dewalt brand while all the rest are Kobalt, Milwaukee and Bosch are mediocre except black and decker which is akin to the horrific Canadian guidance, the absolute worse out CD there! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I don't remember much about model algorithms, but it seems that when they change dramatically between 6 hr runs, there has to be some reason. I guess, 5-6 days out, the potential outcomes are so great that it can spit out 2 very different ones based on permutations alone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 The initial primary continues to shift north which now has mixing farther north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 General model (GFS/ECMWF) consensus that a broad and nearly vertically stack low over the Upper Midwest will slowly track east bringing unsettle weather beginning late Saturday night through early next week. With that said, have again slowed the arrival time of the precipitation for Saturday night with strong surface ridge to our north begrudgingly giving way to this system. At this point, it appears that the initial round of precipitation with this system will likely begin as snow. It will then transition over to a mixed bag as warmer air works in aloft early Sunday morning for Western NY and the Finger Lakes region. East of Lake Ontario, it appears sounding profiles will remain just cold enough to support all snow. With that said, the weakening low is forecast to pass by just to our south Sunday night into Monday. While this occurs, a secondary low develops near the Delmarva Coast and then tracks past Long Island. If this senerio occurs, colder air will again work back in aloft around the back side of this system across our region. Look for precipitation to transition back over to snow Sunday night and remain all snow after this time. Anyways, highs Sunday will peak in mid and upper 30s, however areas east of Lake Ontario may not make it much above the freezing mark if at all. Low pressure will finally pull away from the area on Monday night, although there may still be some leftover snow showers still hanging around, especially downwind of the lakes. Otherwise, with colder air filter in behind this system highs will once again average below normal for this time of year. Look for highs in the low to mid 30s Monday, Tuesday it could be even colder with highs mainly in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Gefs look much different than OPMost are a good hit for our area but still 5 days out and we all saw what just happened with this last debacle. I love tracking like the last one but got skunked and I will not have my eyes pinned to every model run cause that only complicates matters worse but when Saturday rolls around, and were still in the cone of uncertainty then I'd go with the under again. our area is simply not conducive for synoptic events except when they occasionally want to, and they do, it I dont think this is one of these times. I feel the result will be as bad if not worse than the last as far as frozen precip but these opinions are mine so we'll see. Something has to go wrong, it's what happens with almost every synoptic event around here then we all wait for LES cause we all know we're getting something but not with synoptic events. I've lived through too many disappointments and I just lived through another one so I won't track back to back duds, not me! I will lurk till Sunday Morning, Peace!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Euro is king. No doubt. But you gotta lump the others in there! It had several runs that still showed Syracuse getting banged. BUF weather , were did you get a historical run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 37 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: What are ppl looking at on this board? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Just thought I'd get people's blood pressure up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Icon looked like garbage with all rain/mix with the primary but semi- redeemed itself with the coastal lol Now we see what the real models show.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Eh. Looks like it’s back to earth with a typical cutter. Redevelopment rarely ever happens in time for anyone west of Albany. Glad I didn’t latch on to this one and put my crazy hat on (as usual). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 44 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Those look pretty good for CNY overall, much better than the individual 12Z op GFS panels i just looked at. Which Ensemble member is the op run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 31 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Those look pretty good for CNY overall, much better than the individual 12Z op GFS panels i just looked at. Which Ensemble member is the op run? Back to a swing and a miss for all of WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Euro a bit east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 12,z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 For WNY on to the next one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: For WNY on to the next one To me screw all this synoptic crap. Too much has to be perfect (and we just had one this month) for WNY to get a good synoptic storm due to our location relative to the coast and the Appalachian Mts... give me a cutter that goes right to Hudson Bay and gives us a persistent SW flow or let it be warm and sunny!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 10 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: To me screw all this synoptic crap. Too much has to be perfect (and we just had one this month) for WNY to get a good synoptic storm due to our location relative to the coast and the Appalachian Mts... give me a cutter that goes right to Hudson Bay and gives us a persistent SW flow or let it be warm and sunny!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 Some nice blocking on GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 Hearing some thunder, few flashes of lightning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 That line that just moved in meant business. Shelf cloud along with the entire sky turning dark. Very high winds and rain right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some nice blocking on GEFS I'm not sold yet. Models are having a tough time in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That line that just moved in meant business. Shelf cloud along with the entire sky turning dark. Very high winds and rain right now. The actual front that should be on your doorstep now looks even more feisty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I'm not sold yet. Models are having a tough time in the medium range. Yeah, they've been pretty terrible. But it's so early in the season. December is an actual winter month where things start to happen. (Usually) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 EPS will start a new thread Dec 1st. Nothing really happening next few days aside from high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 27, 2019 Share Posted November 27, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS will start a new thread Dec 1st. Nothing really happening next few days aside from high winds. Thats a nice look and would be perfect if there was a cutoff low just south of hudson bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 27, 2019 Author Share Posted November 27, 2019 Marquette getting slammed with LES band after 12"+ of synoptic and another WSW in effect for next storm with LES to follow. 40-50" in a week over there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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