Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 35 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Couldn’t agree more. This has cutter all over it. Still up in the air about LES in BUF and Tug. You guys actually don’t want a transfer- obviously. I think that’s still a good possibility. A) the link I sent CNY well documents he's wrong about cold, snowy November's...2) we are all speculating about the upcoming storm and frankly there is a better chance of the "bowling ball" happening due to the -EPO and cold air close by in Canada than a cutter. The high pressure would string out a warm front across the area with the well back some 2 or 3 hundred miles to the west and it's forward motion would be easterly until a transfer to the coast Miller b style, leaving an inverted trough back towards our CWA and a conveyor for moisture. This is also speculation but the link regarding cold November's is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 https://weather-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/weather.com/amp/storms/winter/news/2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter?amp_js_v=a2&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE%3D#aoh=15747122963114&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From %1%24s&share=https%3A%2F%2Fweather.com%2Fstorms%2Fwinter%2Fnews%2F2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Another potentially significant storm system looks to impact the area during the weekend. At this forecast range it is too early to be specific, but this system could bring an extended period of wintry precipitation to western and north central New York. Colder air wrapping into the area behind this system Monday will bring the potential for accumulating northwest flow lake effect snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Interesting and drastic differences in the upper air patttern. One finds a weakness and the other doesn’t. I would say GFS is favored solution based on the rapidly rising AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Gonna suck if the primary goes to far north and then blows up off the coast lol Just on the good side at 18z.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 The Upper Peninsula of Michigan has to be one of the most wintry places to live anywhere in this country. Relentless lake snows and almost always on the right side of any winter storm. These next two systems absolutely crush them. Going to be quite the hefty snowpack setting up there by next week. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Interesting and drastic differences in the upper air patttern. One finds a weakness and the other doesn’t. I would say GFS is favored solution based on the rapidly rising AO When I first looked at the GEM map I was sure that you drew a smiley face in the center of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Gefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 39 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gefs Thats not a lot of frozen for WNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Suppression city on new GfS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Gfs is a little south with the primary and colder but also less precipitation.. Kroc at 10/1 is 4.1" , so kuchera doesn't always out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Canadian came in a good bit colder as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 A) the link I sent CNY well documents he's wrong about cold, snowy November's...2) we are all speculating about the upcoming storm and frankly there is a better chance of the "bowling ball" happening due to the -EPO and cold air close by in Canada than a cutter. The high pressure would string out a warm front across the area with the well back some 2 or 3 hundred miles to the west and it's forward motion would be easterly until a transfer to the coast Miller b style, leaving an inverted trough back towards our CWA and a conveyor for moisture. This is also speculation but the link regarding cold November's is not.I dont think I ever said it was factual about Cold Novembers do anything to the following months regarding temps but I mentioned every time we see a cold and I guess somewhat snowy November then our Decembers are usually warmer than normal and snowfall has been falling short of the monthly average, that's what I said about Novembers. Show me 3 yrs in a row that both Nov-Dec have been both BN in Temps and BN in precip or shall we just say snow. The past 3 have been the exact opposite, Cold Novembers followed by horrific Decembers but I may be wrong.Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Euro was south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Most of the snow is from the secondary as the primary withers away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 3 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Most of the snow is from the secondary as the primary withers away.. Yeah that bodes very well from the finger lakes eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 6 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Kbuf and Kroc getting back in the game.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 It's comical that the NWS added in more rain in the forecast..We have a better shot at no precipitation then full mixed event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 It will become unsettled across the region during this period...as a broad progressive mid level ridge will give way to a large closed low. The mature storm system will slog its way across the Lower Great Lakes during the course of the weekend with the potential for mixed pcpn increasing with time. While confidence has steadily increased to the point of using Cat pops for Sunday...thermal profiles remain inconsistent as to the p-type. From this vantage point though...a large snowfall appears unlikely...however...there will be the risk for freezing pcpn and or enough wet snow to cause some travel issues. By Monday...there is general consensus that the storm system will be moving away to our east. This will allow cold air to deepen across our region and change the mixed pcpn to snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 If the gefs has a clue, this isn't done trending south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Delta, any thoughts on impending wind/severe T storm event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 59 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: If the gefs has a clue, this isn't done trending south.. Ill take a number 5, 6,8,10,12,and 18 with fries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Holy Batman icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 Enjoy it for one run lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 26, 2019 Author Share Posted November 26, 2019 That model should be banned from here, I've never seen it predict a storm correctly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I is wonky but sometimes it pulls one out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 26, 2019 Share Posted November 26, 2019 I still can’t believe the primary goes south enough to allow redevelopment over south jersey. I still say it cuts but Think Snow might have the win. We certainly have blocking. But do we have enough HP in Canada to keep the bowling ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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