wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Gefs Probably takes like 3 days to trek east lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 That look is actually a decent outcome as long as primary doesn't get farther north than erie pa. Secondary low takes over with a inverted trough extending back into western ny. Seen it many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 2:13 AM, tim123 said: That look is actually a decent outcome as long as primary doesn't get farther north than erie pa. Secondary low takes over with a inverted trough extending back into western ny. Seen it many times. Expand I’d think Warm air would shuffle right up the lakes plain. That low gets anywhere near Erie and BUF to Roc is shot until the LP AND moisture is East. No obvious HP to keep our eastern zones cool either. We gotta hope for a further south track or a real early transition- in my uneducated opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 3:24 AM, wolfie09 said: Expand Alex, I’ll take member 11 for 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Not a member here that doesn’t give the north country boys a lot of love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just your run of the mill secondary in Ohio.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Damm that LES potential after next week is fading by each run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 NWS very bullish on a paste job here, forecasting 4-6 inches. With just an inch so far color me very skeptical. I think it whiffs to our east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 12:11 PM, ayuud11 said: Damm that LES potential after next week is fading by each run lol Expand We get pacific help but the NAO and AO going positive is a quick shot at arctic air and then reload. Until we get some Atlantic help it's unlikely to happen. Even more so for those that need a SW flow. Need some blocking to retrograde the low back to near Hudson bay. Earlier runs were showing that, but there is nothing to prevent the lows from traveling right and out through the Atlantic with no blocking. We will get some colder air due to -EPO +PNA Neutral WPO but it will be quick hitting. Up/Down pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2019 Author Share Posted November 24, 2019 Going to Bills game today, huge game! 8-3! 40 and sunny is perfect conditions aside from a lake snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Gfs Did a little retrograding, which is how we got this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Last night 0z Canadian had a sw flow event at the end of it's run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 2:56 PM, wolfie09 said: Last night 0z Canadian had a sw flow event at the end of it's run.. Expand Like BUFwx said without that Low retrograding out west it's hard to maintain a good SW flow, we could still get hit but it'll prolly be the usual SW winds shifting quickly as the low passes by.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Icon at the end of it's run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Current system off the east coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 There she goes. Didn’t stand a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 5:00 PM, wolfie09 said: Current system off the east coast.. Expand Someone is getting a lot of slop. Killington? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 The Thanksgiving system has always been progged to go into the lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I kinda like the gfs lol Yes it cuts, but secondary development flips us to snow with some wrap around/enhancement to be had..Also several impulses riding through the flow keeping the lake firing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Ggem verbatim doesn't have much plain rain, even with a cutter, cold air at the surface.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 1:32 PM, cny rider said: NWS very bullish on a paste job here, forecasting 4-6 inches. With just an inch so far color me very skeptical. I think it whiffs to our east. Expand Well the radar sure exploded right after I posted this brilliant comment. Cooperstown crusher! Anywhere from 2 inches on the wet spots in the yard, to 6 inches on the garbage pails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 6:36 PM, cny rider said: Well the radar sure exploded right after I posted this brilliant comment. Cooperstown crusher! Anywhere from 2 inches on the wet spots in the yard, to 6 inches on the garbage pails. Expand Love it! Wet snow is the prettiest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 On 11/24/2019 at 6:36 PM, cny rider said: Well the radar sure exploded right after I posted this brilliant comment. Cooperstown crusher! Anywhere from 2 inches on the wet spots in the yard, to 6 inches on the garbage pails. Expand Our total matches your description exactly, even the couple tree limbs down around the property! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 Dang I wish there was something to track. That early storm got me going and now I’m sitting here like, “ok, now what?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 On 11/25/2019 at 4:09 AM, rochesterdave said: Dang I wish there was something to track. That early storm got me going and now I’m sitting here like, “ok, now what?” Expand Yeah even the lake effect is withering away to a small event. However, most predicted a warm December. We just had the coldest November on record I believe and a huge head start with that snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 AO going really positive Same with NAO, we also lose the +PNA. In other words very warm weather coming after the brief cool down. Early/Mid December likely torches. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 For Dec from CPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 In other news the Bills are 8-3, game was amazing. Who cares about weather as long as the Bills keep winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 25, 2019 Author Share Posted November 25, 2019 Bring out the shorts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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