ayuud11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 43 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That last run is 40-50" across Metro Buffalo. It's all downhill from there. Last major LES event we had in the city was back in 06 lol we’re certainly due... FYI Major as in 2ft+ lol not these 6-12” crap. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I was in Knox last year for a training, really nice town. Hoping to head up to Vermont this winter for some skiing. Ahh..what kind of training was that? I'm in Knox by several hundred feet but we orient more with Duanesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, Logan11 said: Ahh..what kind of training was that? I'm in Knox by several hundred feet but we orient more with Duanesburg. It was actually in Troy, NY. I believe that is close to Knox? It was at a Hotel. It was a central location for the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Surprised u made it out alive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: It was actually in Troy, NY. I believe that is close to Knox? It was at a Hotel. It was a central location for the Northeast. Yeah Troy around 28 miles due east of here guess. Passed through on the way to VT last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Vermont has been in the jackpot zone for the last few years, every event they seem to have the max totals. Noticed that too perhaps some orographic lift in play?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Surprised u made it out alive.. Hah yea the south end and north end (Lansingburgh) of Troy are pretty iffy. The central part has seen some gentrification with people coming up from NYC and then the east side is RPI so that's not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Bowling ball . Just look at the 700mb Vort. What a beauty. Quadruple closed off low barreling through middle of the country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 6 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Bowling ball . Just look at the 700mb Vort. What a beauty. Quadruple closed off low barreling through middle of the country Wasn’t there a midwinter storm in 2015 that looked a lot like that one, and dropped a foot+ across the lower Great Lakes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 13 minutes ago, WNash said: Wasn’t there a midwinter storm in 2015 that looked a lot like that one, and dropped a foot+ across the lower Great Lakes? Yes these bowling ball cut off lows are notorious for causing chaotic weather from west to east throughout the country. Do you happen to know what month that was? Just look at this 500mb for the long range .This is a great look for early winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Well GFS pretty much lost the long duration LES event, for at least one run.. Looks like it wants to warm us up at the end of it's run too.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 A 984 over NYC and nada? Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 South shore could do ok depending on this system, especially if it transfers and becomes a noreaster.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 This isn't good. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 23, 2019 Author Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, ayuud11 said: Noticed that too perhaps some orographic lift in play?? That along with them being in the predominant storm track last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: A 984 over NYC and nada? Crazy We needed more of a N-NNE trajectory not NE/ENE. blockquote widget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: This isn't good. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml I think the CPC has been out to lunch with a warm bias this fall...on Oct 17th their November outlook was AN for us...howd that work out? Again for December they are predicting the same...im not taking that as their only driver and running with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 With that being said slight westward shift with snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Just hoping for an inch or 2 here in the Catskills ,Liberty NY (Sullivan County) about 1,500 feet in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 This is what happens if it cuts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 The Euro loves Midwest bombs around that time frame. It's the best model inside day 5, but nothing so special at day 10. Even inside day 5 it's not as good as years ago, but still better than the NCEP trash. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 This would be a kick in the nuts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: This would be a kick in the nuts Wow a 19" spot... Frame this model run until 10:30 PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Wow a 19" spot... Frame this model run until 10:30 PM. 4 minutes ago, Logan11 said: Wow a 19" spot... Frame this model run until 10:30 PM. Nice omega block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: This would be a kick in the nuts Up for the wackiest run this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 Honestly wouldn't surprise me haha.. Primary has to give eventually under that confluence, gives way to a secondary off the coast.. Distinct possibility.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Honestly wouldn't surprise me haha.. Primary has to give eventually under that confluence, gives way to a secondary off the coast.. Distinct possibility..Agreed, I will forever choose the under on snow amounts until I see a definitive situation, lol, because its doing everything in its power not to snow!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 I have a mix forecasted at 2AM on my P&C and I'll wake up to snow tomorrow guaranteed, lol!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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