SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Who exactly is measuring there snow? We found out from Erie PA that year it was a school bus driver with little to no training. In the last ASOS report it showed a heading of FED for Rochesters reading. Buffalo is the most accurate report due to Meteorologist actually doing the measuring at the airport where the NWS is located. No... Erie had the airport parking lot attendants taking the measurements on their lunch breaks. They just tossed some snow boards down in a grassy area on the edge of the parking lot and told them to drop a yard stick at set times during the day. When the local TV station came to interview them after their “record” storm and they explained how they were measuring that’s when the NWS investigated the record and deemed it to not be record breaking due to observer error. That whole thing was such a joke. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 As a few are talking about what portion of our snow comes from lake effect I saw one of the local mets talking about this last week. According to her numbers Buffalo only gets 34% of its annual snowfall from lake effect. Thoughts? I have no idea where she is pulling this data from but that number seems low to me.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: As a few are talking about what portion of our snow comes from lake effect I saw one of the local mets talking about this last week. According to her numbers Buffalo only gets 34% of its annual snowfall from lake effect. Thoughts? I have no idea where she is pulling this data from but that number seems low to me... . These TV mets are so bad. I don't even watch them anymore. There are far superior Mets on these forums. How do you even come up with that number? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 A couple of my favorite walks in the 2014 storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: As a few are talking about what portion of our snow comes from lake effect I saw one of the local mets talking about this last week. According to her numbers Buffalo only gets 34% of its annual snowfall from lake effect. Thoughts? I have no idea where she is pulling this data from but that number seems low to me... Her numbers pretty much match mine. Different area (BUF vs 'Cuse no. Burbs)...but they're not unreasonable, for a rule of thumb average for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Some great thundersnow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, Syrmax said: Her numbers pretty much match mine. Different area (BUF vs 'Cuse no. Burbs)...but they're not unreasonable, for a rule of thumb average for many of us. How do you differentiate lake effect vs enhanced? Buffalo receives quite a bit from enhanced, probably more from enhanced then from LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Many of my biggest events since moving to Oswego county have been hybrid events, without the lake I'd see half, if that lol Not sure I'd consider that more synoptic then lake.. How many inland runners have nailed us over the last several years without the help of the lake, not many lol Hell we pretty much need a track up the spine of the apps, good luck with that... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, wolfie09 said: Many of my biggest events since moving to Oswego county have been hybrid events, without the lake I'd see half if that lol Not sure I'd consider that more synoptic then lake.. How many inland runners have nailed us over the last several years without the help of the lake, not many lol Hell we pretty much need a track up the spine of the apps, good luck with that lol You're due for a big LES event at your location. This might be the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 I would think Syracuse receives more from synoptic then Buffalo does, they have a much more favorable location. They also get enhancement behind with the NW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 From NWS: https://www.weather.gov/buf/BUFclifo Over half of the annual snowfall comes from the "lake-effect" process and is very localized. Lake-effect snow occurs when cold air crosses the relatively warm lake waters and becomes saturated, creating clouds and precipitation downwind. The location of these snowbands is determined by the direction of the wind. Due to the prevailing winds, areas south of Buffalo receive much more lake-effect snow than locations to the north. The lake snow machine can start as early as mid November, peaks in December, then virtually shuts down after Lake Erie freezes in mid to late January. The area does not experience many heavy general (synoptic scale) snows, because large scale storm systems usually pass well to the east. Spring comes slowly to the Buffalo area. The ice pack on Lake Erie does not usually disappear until mid April and the lake remains chilly through most of May. As the prevailing flow is southwesterly, areas near the lake are often as much as 20 degrees colder than inland locations. @DeltaT13 Fortunately, the cool lake waters act as a strong stabilizing influence, so areas near the lake shore, including the city of Buffalo, experience more sunshine and fewer thunderstorms than inland areas. The cool air from the lake also retards the growing season, but this diminishes the threat of damaging late spring frosts. The average date of the last frost is near the end of April in the Buffalo metro area, but in mid May well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: These TV mets are so bad. I don't even watch them anymore. There are far superior Mets on these forums. How do you even come up with that number? I too would be interested to see the logic but it doesn't seem too unreasonable. She graduated from Penn State, I'd guess she's pretty smart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 That's only the past 10 years, too. It could be that the past 10 have been more synoptic heavy at BUF than overall or a standard 30-year climb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 As everyone knows the % is going to change a ton based on location and a 10 season sample size is way to small to use. The airport isn't in a great area even compared to Southern Cheektowaga, see nov storm totals 5 years ago compared to union and William area in cheektowaga 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Last picture was my truck stuck in my front yard. I'd been out plowing for 36 hours or so and I had to plow a spot to park my truck. I ended up falling asleep trying to make a spot in the front yard and said F it. Went and got some sleep and was lucky enough to have a buddy come and pull me out using my kinetic tow rope I bought just before the storm. For anyone who storm chases I would highly recommend getting a kinetic recovery rope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I too would be interested to see the logic but it doesn't seem too unreasonable. She graduated from Penn State, I'd guess she's pretty smart. I got accepted there for meteorology. But stayed in buffalo with the girlfriend and went for business instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 19 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: I too would be interested to see the logic but it doesn't seem too unreasonable. She graduated from Penn State, I'd guess she's pretty smart. Wasn’t Andy Parker the only one to predict oct 2006 a few days before it happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 20 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Wasn’t Andy Parker the only one to predict oct 2006 a few days before it happened? I don't remember but the nws issued a warning the morning of Oct 12th for 2 to 6 inches. The lake effect event itself was well-modeled in advance and discussed for at least a few days before the storm. The ptype and accumulation was the difficult part of the forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 That event was my senior thesis. Some of the wrf simulation actually did an excellent job in mainly showing snow. Wrf simulations maximized precip over BUF at the observed lake temperature. Lake temperature decreased modeled precip overall. Lake temperature increased resulted in the band concentrating more precip over the lake but less at BUF The extremely deep mixed layer (lake induced equilibrium level in excess of 500mb) allowed the sensible heat of the lake to only heat up the surface temperature by 1 to 1.5 degree Celsius as the sensible heat gets mixed upward through the mixed layer. A more shallow cold air mass would have been more modified by the sensible lake heat. The land breeze circulation aided in drawing low level cooler and drier air from northern pa/ne ohio/sw ny underneath the band. This air wasn't as modified by the lakes and wet bulb and ice bulb temperature were fairly close to freezing. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 15 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: That event was my senior thesis. Some of the wrf simulation actually did an excellent job in mainly showing snow. Wrf simulations maximized precip over BUF at the observed lake temperature. Lake temperature decreased modeled precip overall. Lake temperature increased resulted in the band concentrating more precip over the lake but less at BUF The extremely deep mixed layer (lake induced equilibrium level in excess of 500mb) allowed the sensible heat of the lake to only heat up the surface temperature by 1 to 1.5 degree Celsius as the sensible heat gets mixed upward through the mixed layer. A more shallow cold air mass would have been more modified by the sensible lake heat. The land breeze circulation aided in drawing low level cooler and drier air from northern pa/ne ohio/sw ny underneath the band. This air wasn't as modified by the lakes and wet bulb and ice bulb temperature were fairly close to freezing. Does the model input data coorelate to the 30 feet deep water temp or surface water temp? How do they coorelate the lower degreed lake temps towards Cleveland in comparison to the warmer deeper portions close to Dunkirk and Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Does the model input data coorelate to the 30 feet deep water temp or surface water temp? How do they coorelate the lower degreed lake temps towards Cleveland in comparison to the warmer deeper portions close to Dunkirk and Buffalo? Well yeah I mean this was 2007...but the wrf model did have the observed lake temperature with all its differences from Toledo to Buffalo. I would assume the model just has the surface temperature. It's not coupled and it's not mixing through the thermocline. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Some models nowadays are coupled which is important in a hurricane upwelling situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Can't even get snow with lake effect lol The gfs and icon both keep the primary stronger for longer (shocker), through the lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 They both eventually transfer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Looks like the 6z GOOFUS wants to push the cold air back into the second week of December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 Colder and wetter than average for the month of November so far and yet we will finish below average in the SnowFall department lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 I'm posting this now because its extremely rare to see KROC at the top (even with our inflated numbers). This surely won't last long though! GSB Cities The 2019 - 2020 Snow Season Normal Average to Date This Time Last Season Normal Seasons Average All Time Season Snowfall Record Rochester 17.8 3.1 10.6 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960) Buffalo 12.6 4.3 3.8 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977) Syracuse 6.6 4.0 15.7 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993) Binghamton 4.0 3.4 16.0 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017) Albany 0.6 1.3 6.4 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 3 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like the 6z GOOFUS wants to push the cold air back into the second week of December... Coincides with the EPO dump, still need to work on that PNA, but it's trending the right direction. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 21, 2019 Author Share Posted November 21, 2019 solid look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 21, 2019 Share Posted November 21, 2019 If we just had a touch more cold, we'd see a few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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