BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: I really need to sit down and study teleconnections again. I obviously know a little bit about the NAO and what usually works for us, but I can tell you that during my 4 years of studying meteorology, I don't think any one of those indices was ever mentioned a single time (Some of them probably werent even formally named or understood at that time). You guys definitely have a leg up on me when it comes to following these long term trends and indices. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 This little system on Friday actually looks to pose a decent yet short lived high wind risk. Storm tract to our NW, a fairly deep and deepening storm (sub 985), which hits during daylight hours. I would expect wind advisories to drop sometime tomorrow. It's better than nothing....haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Here delta. Nws climate narrative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Rochester has gotten big lake storms 12 to 18 inches.or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Over a foot on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 feet on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Ok, I'll bite. That is a generalized overview and some years I suppose that is true, but I can tell you other years it certainly comes out lower than that. Furthermore, lets roll with that statement as if it is actually fact. The 50 some inches that we get from lake effect are truly pitiful dinks and dunks. 2 inches of fluff here, 3 inches there (20:1 ratio crap). Rinse and repeat. Furthermore, there is a huge difference in total snow across Monroe county. I sure as shit don't get 50 inches of lake effect snow a year, Webster on the hand most certainly does. The bottom-line is that the next two weeks look like garbage for Rochester as the models currently stand. Noteworthy storms for Rochester come from large Ohio Valley storms passing just south of us or Hudson Valley running Nor'Easters. I like significant storms with low ratio snow. I'm happy the lakes keep snow in the air more often than most people, but it just doesn't add up to much (at least in my locale on the west side). A single SW event off Erie (the type that buffalo is known for) is more significant than a whole seasons worth of NW multi-band garbage that we get. 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Here delta. Nws climate narrative. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I get what your saying delta. But rochester receives more snow annually than buffalo. But they just get bigger chunks at a time usually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 i'll look back at my weather journal to see how much snow we actually got during those storms you posted; as the Rochester Airport ASOS is absolutely insane when it comes to snow totals. Case in point is the storm from this past Monday (11/11). The ROC airport reported the highest snowfall for any location of WNY. Just ridiculously inflated numbers with every storm. I swear some guy at the airport is stacking individual snowflakes corner to corner to make those numbers work. I come in 33 percent lower every season and live 2 miles from the airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: I get what your saying delta. But rochester receives more snow annually than buffalo. But they just get bigger chunks at a time usually. Half of Rochesters snow is 1:30-1:35 ratio fluff in N/NNW winds. Buffalo probably gets more QPF as snow then Rochester. Our typical lake effect is 1:15-1:25 ratio. Buffalos reporting station is located in a much worst spot then Roc and Syr are. South of Buffalo receives far more snow than anywhere near Rochester receives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 They measure much more often than most probally before compacting. Or wind issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: They measure much more often than most probally before compacting. Or wind issues Absolutely, they really stack the deck to make their numbers look good. Sometimes I wonder if they even measure more frequently than every six hours or use some other technique to extrapolate snow totals. It's misleading for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 It's more spead out and not as intense for sure. As a general statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: i'll look back at my weather journal to see how much snow we actually got during those storms you posted; as the Rochester Airport ASOS is absolutely insane when it comes to snow totals. Case in point is the storm from this past Monday (11/11). The ROC airport reported the highest snowfall for any location of WNY. Just ridiculously inflated numbers with every storm. I swear some guy at the airport is stacking individual snowflakes corner to corner to make those numbers work. I come in 33 percent lower every season and live 2 miles from the airport. Who exactly is measuring there snow? We found out from Erie PA that year it was a school bus driver with little to no training. In the last ASOS report it showed a heading of FED for Rochesters reading. Buffalo is the most accurate report due to Meteorologist actually doing the measuring at the airport where the NWS is located. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Also, thanks for posting the simplified teleconnetion graphics BufWx! I'll peruse them tonight. I need to come up with a clean way to remember them all and make sense of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Rochester and buffalo proper are secondary snowbelts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Who exactly is measuring there snow? We found out from Erie PA that year it was a school bus driver with little to no training. In the last ASOS report it showed a heading of FED for Rochesters reading. Buffalo is the most accurate report due to Meteorologist actually doing the measuring at the airport where the NWS is located. This is a great question and likely the reason behind our inflated numbers. I think the ASOS makes some weird assumptions combined with an inexperienced person taking the measurements in a location that favors drifting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Last storm I buy cause buffalo got almost same report. 11 inches roughly. But rochester got 5 inches of lake effect day after. I got 6 or 7 in walworth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: This is a great question and likely the reason behind our inflated numbers. I think the ASOS makes some weird assumptions combined with an inexperienced person taking the measurements in a location that favors drifting. They have the highest totals in nearly every synoptic storm. I haven't seen BUF or SYR beat them in a storm in years. It is odd to me. ...Monroe County... Rochester Airport 10.9 in 0700 AM 11/12 Other Federal 2 N East Rochester 9.0 in 0716 AM 11/12 Trained Spotter Rochester 4.7 NE 8.9 in 0705 AM 11/12 COCORAHS Honeoye Falls 1.7 NE 4.3 in 0700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, tim123 said: Last storm I buy cause buffalo got almost same report. 11 inches roughly. But rochester got 5 inches of lake effect day after. I got 6 or 7 in walworth Yup, and the 11 inches were concrete that could barely be compressed at all while the 5 inches could literally be squished down to less than a quarter inch. Hard to compare numbers like that at face value. Snow Water Equivalent is a critical metric that rarely gets mentioned in seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: ...Monroe County... Rochester Airport 10.9 in 0700 AM 11/12 Other Federal 2 N East Rochester 9.0 in 0716 AM 11/12 Trained Spotter Rochester 4.7 NE 8.9 in 0705 AM 11/12 COCORAHS Honeoye Falls 1.7 NE 4.3 in 0700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS I think I measured 8 inches but made no effort to measure at intervals. It's all so ambiguous and completely different than total depth on the ground post storm. We should all at least feel lucky that we have these problems, not many cities in this great nation have seasonal snow totals anywhere near what we get (and we still bitch and moan incessantly). We have a it good! Alright, I need to get back to work, lolz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: ...Monroe County... Rochester Airport 10.9 in 0700 AM 11/12 Other Federal 2 N East Rochester 9.0 in 0716 AM 11/12 Trained Spotter Rochester 4.7 NE 8.9 in 0705 AM 11/12 COCORAHS Honeoye Falls 1.7 NE 4.3 in 0700 AM 11/12 COCORAHS And yeah, I have no idea what the hell "Other Federal" means, haha. Your guess is as good as mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I sort of feel in our areas that separating lake effect from synoptic snow totals is dicey since a lot of what BUF and maybe to a little lesser extent ROC receives is a hybrid of both - e.g. lake enhancement. If BUF gets 10" of snow from a clipper due to several hours of lake enhancement, does that count as lake effect or synoptic...I would call it synhanceffect . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Looks like the EPS is following suit for the early December timeframe if a huge cold dump and pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 20, 2019 Author Share Posted November 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Looks like the EPS is following suit for the early December timeframe if a huge cold dump and pattern change. - EPO, - NAO. Fire up the lake machine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I agree with DELTA. Roc inflates snow totals (at times). Two years ago they were criticized for under measuring and ever since they’ve exaggerated. The pattern everyone is talking about is classic set up for the traditional belts, of which Roc is most definitely NOT ONE. We get enhancements and nickel and dime LES on a north flow- typically unpredictable. We can get big one with a retrograde low that backs into Maine. But these guys are talking about a system parked over Hudson Bay and a SW or W trajectory. Roc will have sunshine and cold windy weather. At least Delta likes wind. Tim is a bit better situated for LES being in Wayne but I gotta say, I can count true Roc LES storms on two hands in the last decade . Usually a sagging front that stalls on the south shore and produces convergence on soft winds. IDK. My two cents (worth one). I gotta live for synoptic and I’m not seeing anything promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Lake enhanced is lake effect go across the lake and snowfall for a year is 40 to 50 a year. It's the effect the lake has. Go to buf roc it's more than doubled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 And remember lake effect is very localized especially on nnw flow. Bads can be 1 or 2 miles wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now