BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 We can always sneak one in during a crappy pattern lol With Saturday being the next "wintry" potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Where have I seen this before? Lol Another front with little extra juice, on the gfs.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 This pattern is the dumps. If it’s followed by a warm December it’s gonna be tough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: This pattern is the dumps. If it’s followed by a warm December it’s gonna be tough. I don't see a wall to wall AN pattern shaping up for December...i think lots of ups and downs where we get chances for storms but it may have to time out right. I think there will be plenty of cold days but the average will be slightly AN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 Give me a positive PNA and a negative EPO and get some huge LES events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 This should definitely be expected!! I've been talking about and harping on this exact scenario since I got on the board this year and here we effen go all over again with a AN Dec which should run right into the heart of our beloved season, oh well we were bound to get a crapper sooner or later, perhaps its this yr!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Cold Novembers DO NOT correlate well with the following 3 months, as theres a definitive warm correlation versus a cold one but October is a different story. As well as a warm November, that's why I love warm ones but oh well, another wasted month on cold and snow that will all be gone by the time the true holiday season hits, RLMAO so next yr when you're rooting for ur BY to get Jack-potted for cold and snow in November, maybe you'll think twice and try and will it the other way, meaning the WEST COAST lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Cold Novembers DO NOT correlate well with following 3 months which there a definitive alarm correlation versus a cold one but October is a different story as well as a warm November that's why I love warm ones but oh well, another wasted month on cold and snow that will all be gone by the true holiday season hits, RLMAO so next yr when you're rooting for ur BY to get Jack-potted for cold and snow in November, maybe you'll think twice and will it the other way, meaning the WEST COAST lol! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Rooting for storms doesnt change the actual weather, just an FYI. I'll root for any storm at anytime because storms are more fun that boring ass weather, you have to live in the now when it comes to weather. I'm not thrilled about the potential of a warm December, but holding a 6+ inch snowpack for 7-10 days in mid November was note worthy and an experience I've rarely if ever seen, so I'm quite happy to have experienced that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 I think we have a great winter despite the likely bad early December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-11-12-cold-november-correlated-with-cold-december-january-february-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Euro is an apps runner turned coastal for Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 I guess its something to watch while u guys worry about December.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 That's a good look 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I guess its something to watch while u guys worry about December.. Thats a great look, and it's this week as well not 10 days away...definitely worth watching 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 Yeah, well u know how it is, not one model shows the same solution as another so we'll see lol I'm usually not a big fan of those type of events, primary holds on to long and it's mixed precipitation, transfers to early and moisture gets pulled east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That's a good look Isnt that where we need a low for sw flow lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, Luke_Mages said: Isnt that where we need a low for sw flow lake effect? You would want it a little further north. But you also want it quite a bit cooler than -5 to -7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 From Nov. 2014 discussion. You usually need at least double digit negative 850s to get anything of semblance with LES aside from very early events. From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over a 30 year climatology. 500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to -42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening. With lake temperatures around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb temperature and maxed out near 20000'. Further up in the atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in recent memory. The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum. From pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" of snow in the forecast over four days in advance. Data from the Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow events for Buffalo. From the 2nd event A very favorable climatological pattern for heavy lake effect snow was in place over the lower Great Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, Nov 19 and 20, as a deep closed H5 low was centered near the Michigan Straits while anomalously cold air was over the upper Ohio Valley and Mid West. At the surface, low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon tracked across Southern Ontario to the Ottawa Valley by Thursday morning... then to the St Lawrence Valley by Thursday evening. This synoptic pattern circulated H85 temps of -14c across the lower Great Lakes to produce moderate to extreme instability over the relatively mild lake waters. The building instability was accompanied by a capping inversion that rose from around 7k ft at the start of the event to around 15k ft at its peak. The comparable event to this is listed from 1945 During December 14-18, 1945. The airport measured nearly 37 inches with in excess of 70 inches just 4-6 miles south (Lancaster). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 18, 2019 Share Posted November 18, 2019 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: From Nov. 2014 discussion From a climatological perspective, the storm had signs of an unprecedented event early on, with historical analogs and climatological ensembles pointing to a rare if ever seen event over a 30 year climatology. 500 mb temperatures eventually dropped to -42C on the KBUF sounding Tuesday evening. With lake temperatures around 9C, lake induced equilibrium levels exceeded the 500mb temperature and maxed out near 20000'. Further up in the atmospheric column, the 200mb heights were lower than anything in recent memory. The more traditional 850mb temperature value of -15C was also on the lower edge of the climatological spectrum. From pattern recognition, this was a high confidence event...with "feet" of snow in the forecast over four days in advance. Data from the Saint Louis University CIPS (Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems) showed several analogs that matched 24 hour record snow events for Buffalo. Well we won't need to get it that cold as it would be closer to December and it "Appears" it would be growing colder with time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 I like how they referenced CIPS analogs. I like them and hate them at the same time. Some of the top analogs are not even close to what occurs. However, I find them more accurate in LES events than synoptic. The last synoptic event analogs you had to go to number 7 to get anything close to what occurred. The top 6 were basically non events despite the highest matches for atmospheric conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 The next few weeks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2019 Author Share Posted November 18, 2019 As already mentioned a very up and down pattern with chances along the way as wolfie pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Well I finally zero'd out my snowfall o.g. estimate, although we still have patches of snow here and there. Pretty impressive for early/mid November as I only had about 4" of snowfall with the last storm and 7" total for the month to date. So basically anything further this month gets my locale to average snowfall and likely BN monthly avg temp I don't think the next few weeks will be a total shutout for wintry precip but that -PNA forecast isn't a good sign, if it materializes for any length of time. Think SE ridge...its more of a problem further south though as we can oftentimes still Cobb something together up here even with unfavorable patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Some pretty heavy rates (1-2"/hr) north of Albany... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 3.2" the final amount for here 25 miles west of KALB. Nice little upper disturbance - look at the spin on ENX. The first half was wasted in rain, flipped to snow before 4:00 AM. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Last 2 runs of the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 19, 2019 Share Posted November 19, 2019 The Adirondacks and tug make out well in both scenarios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Meh kinda quite for a while so here’s a couple more photos that popped up on my face book memories today. Day 2 and my accomplishment was getting half my driveway cleared, finding my wife’s car and shoveling a path out to the middle of the street... even if it didn’t lead to anywhere just yet.... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now